College Football - Week 5 (10/2/2026)
College Football – Week 5
Week 4 Premium Plays Record: 3-1 (+1 unit)
Week 4 Leans Record: 3-2 (+0.5 units)
Overall Premium Plays Record: 6-14-1 (-11 units)
Overall Leans Record: 10-10 (even)
Overall Combined Record: 16-24-1 (-11 units)
S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Tickets is on the board tallying a positive week. Never a doubt really – despite Cal getting boat raced. First of many. Had the chance to think about what NC State did to me some more – they are the second team on the Tickets No Bet List. Florida State and NC State.
Week 5 Preview: Great slate of games. 6 premium plays, 5 leans. Exposing myself here for your viewing pleasure.
Week 5 Premium Plays:
Pitt +3 at Virginia Tech (1 unit): Never been a professional handicapper more due to cash a bet on Friday night. Blacksburg should be ‘rocking’ (relative) to welcome the Pitt Panthers to town. Meeting of undefeated teams and a couple of reject coaches in James Franklin and Pat Narduzzi. Pitt can and should win this game outright so I’ll take the points against a VT team with the most fraudulent numbers in the country. Virginia Tech shockingly allowed ESPN to publish the game preview gifting the Hokies the 12th ranked scoring offense in the country. Any stat showing an Ethan Grunkemeyer led offense ranked that high is clearly a bogus stat. The Grunk man has scored against absolute bottom feeders through four weeks and it is looking like the free ride might be coming to an end. The difference here is that trademarked Narduzzi defense ranked inside the top 15 through four games. I’m not going to stand here and tell you Pitt has played the toughest schedule but Narduzzi being a defensive guy and QB Mason Heintschel bursting onto the scene last year gives their numbers a bit more backing (#6 overall offense, #11 overall defense). Virginia Tech has really struggled to keep some bad teams from putting up points: 21 to Old Dominion, 26 to Maryland, and the coup de gras being 14 to Boston College. The Panthers defense has looked far better against higher quality opponents. Heintschel should have no issues moving the offense and I expect the Narduzzi defense to give the Hokies some issues offensively. Tech loves to run the ball and the heart of this Panthers defense is the D-Line. Panthers make minced meat out of the Hokies, 31-17.
Bama -5 at Miss State (2 units): Riding the hot hand. Seen it once you’ve seen it a thousand times. Team steps onto the scene with a couple solid wins, runs into title contender, gets blown out. Repeat. Tide is unfortunately rolling and I will not get caught on the tracks. People are making a big deal out of the environment in Starkville – complete non-factor. I’ve been to a game at Davis Wade Stadium. Cowbells have to stop when the offense breaks the huddle – it might as well be a library in there once the cowbells stop. Both teams have electric quarterbacks with Kamario Taylor and Keelon Russell playing their way into the Heisman conversation. Credit where it’s due, this isn’t SEC bias for the most part, these guys are good in the air and on the ground. Going to keep this one short – Bama will score 40 as they have all season against a beatable State defense. I expect Kamario Taylor and the State offense to struggle against the best defense they have played to date. Tide rolls, 41-24
Tennessee -7 vs Auburn (1 unit): I had high hopes for the auburn Tigers this year but they would appear to be fraudulent. Close wins over Vandy and Baylor.. Florida score way closer than the game was. At the end of the day, this team is the USF Bulls clad in navy and orange. And the USF Bulls have no business covering the spread here. True freshman QB Faizon Brandon is good to go for this one after a close injury call a week ago against Texas. He benefits from facing a Auburn defense allowing 400+ yards per game and 30 PPG on the button. Heupel and Co have been able to put Brandon in positions to win by running the damn ball. 14th ranked rush offense is two headed monster between DeSean Bishop (6 yards a clip) and Daune Morris (7 yards a clip). Run, run, take the top off. Turnover prone offense for the Tigers ranking dead last in average time of possession. The Tiger defense is going to be hung out to dry against the Volunteers run game. Vols sniff out the fraudulent tigers, 35-24.
Ohio State -14 at Iowa (1 unit): See Bama at Miss State write up. I’m an Iowa guy but giving them the 14 ranking is a bit egregious. Yeah, sure, they beat Michigan via a last second prayer. Michigan is terrible. Ohio State hasn’t truly skull fucked a B10 opponent yet this year but I think we see one here. I’m all about an upset but I’d shocked if Iowa tallies more than 10 here. Ohio State blows the doors off the Hawkeyes, 31-7.
James Madison vs Marshall over 55 (2 units): Clock approaching midnight on my time to write so we are going quick here. Billy Napier is going scorched earth after being relieved of his duties at Florida and landing on his feet at James Madison. He has a 4-0 squad that can score. The Dukes got a win against a solid Liberty team, hung 87 on a nobody, knocked off SDSU in California, and drummed Old Dominium with a 50 piece. The Dukes welcome Marshall to town this weekend who gave up 35 to Gardner Webb, 24 to Missouri State, 26 to Middle Tennessee, and 45 to Penn State. Billy is going to hang 50 himself, counting on martial for 7. JMU remains unbeaten… and back packs the over, 42-31.
North Dakota State 1H -9.5 vs Wyoming (3 units): I think I have this team figured out. We lost the shirt off our back in painful fashion with these guys a couple weeks ago. I’ve been eyeing the Bison in their first year at the FBS level and saw a trend. I’m back in on the cornfed boys. They always seem to jump teams in the first half and flatline in the second half. I don’t know what’s going on over there. We lost in this fashion when the Bison played Sac State two weeks ago. NDSU was up 28-3 at the half and won 31-10 failing to cover -24. The week prior against Air Force, they took a 28-13 lead to the half and barely hung on winning 38-32. This team must be falling asleep in the locker room at the half or something. Turns out, my watchful eye was warranted. The Bison rank 8th in the country at the FBS level in first half points…. THEY RANK 93rd IN SECOND HALF POINTS. Sure the Fordham game was out of reach. But the other three games were a little too close to be chalking them up to ‘they took their foot off the gas’. Anyway, top 10 NDSU defense vs the 132nd ranked scoring offense in Wyoming. Wyoming turns the ball over at an unprecedented clip (-6 good for the 134th ranking) – NDSU is +7 and 5th ranked in the country in turnover margin. I’ve got these guys figured out. Finger to the pulse of the North Dakota State Bison. Give me the Bison -9.5 in the first half of this one and they can fuck off all they want in the second half. NDSU trampling the Cowboys by 3 scores in the first half, 24-3.
Week 5 Leans (0.5 units):
Georgia -25 vs Vandy: Should be a premium play but only concern is the dawgs could get caught peaking ahead to Bama. Vandy bad. Georgia good.
Louisville -3 at NC State: NC State is the Walmart brand Louisville who is a Walmart brand in it’s own right. I guess that makes NC State Dollar Tree brand Louisville. Game will be chaos but Louisville does chaos better. Bounce back game for the Cards.
Virginia -25 at Florida State: Pribula will put up historic numbers against this FSU defense.
SMU -21 vs Boston College: Get right game for a solid Mustangs team at home vs the doormat of not only the ACC but of all college football.
Miami (OH) -14 vs Bowling Green: Bowling Green has an absolutely autistic offense. Highest scoring outing was 13 against Tarleton State….
Yours truly,
Billy Tickets
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