College Football Week 3 (9/18/2026)
College Football – Week 3
Week 2 Premium Plays Record: 1-6 (-9 units)
Week 2 Leans Record: 3-1 (+1 unit)
Overall Premium Plays Record: 2-9-1 (-9 units)
Overall Leans Record: 6-4 (+1 unit)
Overall Combined Record: 8-13-1 (-8 units)
S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Good life lesson/rule of thumb for the younger followers. In life, you’re either in a storm, coming out of a storm, or heading into a storm. Regardless of what stage you are at, you have one job. Weather the storm.
Week 3 Preview: What an opportunity we have here. An opportunity to not only weather the storm, but an opportunity to persevere, and dominate the storm. Let me tell you what – I love this slate. Favorite slate to date. Excited for the opportunity (S/o Mike Norvell, Florida State HC – hopefully the last time I can say that). Looking like we are going to be taking a couple big cuts this week. Afternoon slate could decide the future of Spo’s Sports. Pretty sleepy weekend but money still to be made.
Week 3 Premium Plays:
NC State +3.5 at Vanderbilt (1 unit): Diego Pavia is gone and Vanderbilt is up to their old tricks. Fun couple years there but welcome back to the bottom of the barrel, Commodores. No surprise Vandy had to return significant production but I was expecting more from this team despite being 106th in this category. 14 total new starters split on both sides of the ball resulted in a tough first two weeks for Clark Lee’s Commodores. In both contests, against Austin Pea and Delaware, they were trailing well past the conclusion of the first quarter and really struggled to move the ball at times. Defense hasn’t looked great either. This will be the first start for true frosh Jared Curtis who saw action a week ago in relief of former starting QB Blaze Berlowitz. I have my doubts regarding anyway who was beat out by a guy named Blaze. Junior NC State signal caller CJ Bailey had a rough start to the year against Virginia (may just be a wagon) but was able to rebound a week ago beating Richmond lifeless. The stark contrast between the two appearances for the Wolfpack makes a slightly tougher handicap but I have confidence in what Bailey and NC State did last year on offense. The wolfpack had a top 50 offense and Bailey himself tossed for 3k yards and 25 TDs. NC State lost starting RB Hollywood Smothers in the portal but replaced him with Jayden Scott who is averaging 9 yards a clip on the ground. The running game is subsidized by our boy CJ Bailey. Bottom line here is the NC State offense overpowers the Vanderbilt defense. Bank on the frosh to make a mistake or two and we are high-stepping to a two score victory. Wolfpack shreds Vandy, 35-24.
Bama -19 vs Florida State (2 units): 2 units is a drop in the bucket to the emotional investment I have on Bama covering this spread. I am of the belief that if Bama covers 20 and wins in a fashion I think they will, Mike Norvell will be fired and Florida State fans will be free of his torture. After what I saw two weeks ago in the pillow fight between SMU and Florida State, I don’t see a world the Seminoles don’t lose by 50. Florida State won the turnover battle 4 to 0 against SMU and the only thing that came to light due to this lopsided statistic was the Noles inability to move the ball on offense – specifically through the air. I’ve never seen anything like it. Absolutely nothing good to report on the defensive side of the ball for the Noles. Tony White schematically has one of the worst defenses of all time. 3rd and 8 for SMU and we blitz seven with 4 in the secondary 3 yards behind the line to gain – that play resulted in a 75 yard SMU touchdown by the way. Disastrous game for Mike Norvell and Florida State in their last time out. Partner this with the firing of Florida State AD Mike Alford and a reporter point blank asking Norvell if he saw the rumors of a moving truck in front of his house and I would say this one is over. Bama is not a world beater.. but they have a pulse and that’s all you need to wipe your ass with this Florida State team. Mike Norvell left looking for a ride home after the Noles ditch him on the tarmac – Bama 41-13
North Dakota State -27 at Sac State (2 units): The Bison are enjoying their first year in the FBS starting off 3-0 with a big win over Air Force last week. These guys have a similar feel to Indiana when Cignetti burst on the scene two years ago. Set it and forget it style with the Indiana spread in 2023. NDSU is out to create some noise and the only way to do that is destroying every team they can. Real prison style food chain here. Corn fed North Dakota boys lining up against twink influencers wannabe Colorado Buffalos (Sac State). Sac State got walked by Fresno State last week – Fresno State got blanked by USC the week prior. On the other side, North Dakota State ran through two preseason favorites to win their conference in Jax State and Air Force with an additional throttling of Fordham mixed in. The bison are a wagon. Get on the train or get off the tracks. Bison stampede Sac State, 41-0.
Duke -10 vs Stanford (3 units): You know your boy loves some cross country games. East going west, west going east, it don’t matter – can’t get enough of the body clock games. Seeing a pattern of east going west having a larger impact than west going east but I won’t split hairs for the purpose of this pick. This one is all about Walker Eget and the Duke Blue Devil offense. Fifth year senior Eget transferred from San Jose State after being a 3 year starter and managed to stop the bleeding after Darian Mensah left for greener pastures. Eget and Co went to Champaign, Illinois and got a big win against the Illini where he tossed for 3 TDs on 200 yards passing. The Blue Devil rushing attack added on an additional buck70 on the ground. The Duke offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire ranked 88th overall, but they have the benefit of playing the 122nd ranked defense in Stanford this week. Additionally, Stanford is dead last in getting off the field on 3rd down. Dead last. This is news to me as I check the stat sheet Friday afternoon – but certainly not news to Walker Eget. Eget is familiar with the Stanford defense from his time at San Jose – played them twice. If I told you Eget tossed for 858 yards through the air and 7 tuds between the two contests… Is that something you might be interested in? It moved my needle. Another bonus here, Stanford has the 112th ranked red zone offense – not great. However, when you do score in the red zone, they typically make their hay on the ground. This plays right into the hands of the 29th ranked rush defense in the land. Manny Diaz is going to tighten the screws on Stanford early and often and Eget should be able to recreate some of the magic he had against the Cardinals while at San Jose State. Blue Devils crush the Trees, 38-14.
TAMu team total over 33 vs Kentucky (1 unit): No rest for the weary for Will Stein’s Kentucky Wildcats. After taking their lashings a week ago vs Alabama, they hit the road for Stein’s first SEC road game against a second top ten SEC team in as many weeks. A&M is waiting in College Station with a high powered offense and a veteran QB. I was tossing around the spread but I think Kentucky’s offense is a bit better than what they put on TV last week and I don’t think A&M’s defense is as good as the stats showed through two weeks. This Aggies team was a walking over last year – the defensive coordinator responsible is now the DC at Kentucky – can’t imagine the talent level is relatively close… When Arizona State came to town a week ago, the Aggies needed multiple interceptions in the second half to keep the Sun Devils offense at bay. Kentucky on the other hand was able to head into the break with a lead after posting 17 in the first half. So to summarize, we have a high powered, veteran A&M offense, a A&M defense isn’t great but seems to be able to create turnowvers, the Tony White (see above) of the SEC going from A&M to Kentucky, and Kentucky coming to town with a frisky offense lead my offensive wizard Will Stein. I see this as two ways to win: 1. A&M blows out Kentucky which will surely result in 34+ points 2. Kentucky gets a couple scores on the board and A&M needs to hang 34+ to win. Either way, I like it. Aggies wrangle the cats, 41-20.
Week 2 Leans:
Virginia -10 vs West Virginia: Potential ‘wagon’ watch
Michigan vs UTEP under 48.5: Slim margin but UTEP could get blanked.
Miss State +4 at Scar: Kamario Taylor coming out party for the Bulldogs Guy can sling it.
Houston at Texas Tech under 53.5: Friday night game – Houston is a 7 point dog and the better team based on results. Tech offense has looked lethargic at best.
Miami -21 at Wake Forest: Should be a dog walking. Miami, unfortunately, may be the best team in the country.
Sincerely,
William Tickets
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