College Football - Week 4 (9/25/2026)
College Football – Week 4
Week 3 Premium Plays Record: 1-4 (-3 units)
Week 3 Leans Record: 1-4 (-1.5 units)
Overall Premium Plays Record: 3-13-1 (-12 units)
Overall Leans Record: 7-8 (-0.5 units)
Overall Combined Record: 10-21-1 (-12.5 units)
S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Duquesne +5 at Penn State, Ole Miss -8.5 at Kentucky, North Carolina State University +3.5 at Vanderbilt…. All ‘Where were you’ moments for all the wrong reasons. The most historic bad beats I have ever been a part of. We are squarely in the middle of a storm at the moment.
Week 4 Preview: Solid slate but the numbers aren’t talking to me… may be the back to back weeks of getting my doors blown off. OK State at WVU is appointment television – chaos surely in store.
Week 4 Premium Plays:
Cal ML vs Clemson – Friday Night (3 units): Clemson Tigers jackassing across the country on a short week to take on the Cal Golden Bears in a Friday late night ACC bout. Here’s the deal – we know what this Clemson team is. It’s black and white – these tigers won’t be surprising anyone, they aren’t going to sneak up on you, they aren’t going to score much. It’s an average defensive team with an autistic offense and a coach at a cross roads. I wouldn’t put my faith in true freshman QB Tait Reynolds but Dabo isn’t left with much of a choice. Total offensive and defensive team rankings have the Tigers outside the top 100 in each category and it’s not particularly close. Cal on the other hand finds themselves with a top 50 offense and a serviceable defense that can certainly contain this iteration of the Clemson offense. A misleading score from last weeks game between the Tigers and North Carolina may have some optimistic but people forget they were down 17-3 at the half and scored late to ultimately secure the win. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is following up his freshman campaign with a solid start to the year and should be able to take advantage of the Clemson secondary. Well rounded attack for the Golden Bears that ultimately will outpace Clemson. Now let me tell you about the intangibles working in our favor for this one. Clemson playing on a short week, Clemson traveling across the country, game kicking at 10:30PM EST, Clemson look ahead game with Miami waiting next week, true freshman first conference road game, Cal licking their chops at a chance to get one in on the big dogs, the list goes on. Every immeasurable measurable is on our side here. Bears mog the tigers, 31-20
UCLA -1 at Maryland (1 unit): Going against the body clock here because I feel that strongly about the Bob Chesney lead Bruins. Stats aren’t necessarily going to paint an accurate picture when comparing the two here as UCLA has gone out and beat a solid trio of teams in Cal, SDSU, and Purdue – where Maryland’s best win is at UConn. A boat racing by Virginia Tech and Ethan Grunkemyer (31/39, 3TDs, 314 yards) tells me this Maryland defense is challenged through the air. UCLA and Nico Iamaleava isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire through the air (93rd in pass yards), but their 5th ranked rushing attack will open stuff up for Nico. Bruins RB Wayne Knight has 345 yards on 39 carriers on the year – just a touch under 10 yards a clip through 3 games. I think Maryland will finish in the bottom four of their league and I am high on UCLA with Boby Chesney leading the way. Throw out the rule book on body clock and give me the Bruins to win. If these teams met halfway, UCLA would win by two scores. Bruins stomp the Terrapins, 28 – 21.
Oregon -3 at USC (2 units): The way people are talking about this Oregon team you would think they are 0-3 and the starters went down We Are Marshal style. This is a team picked preseason by many to win it all and they certainly have the talent to get back in the conversation. Let’s walk through it… Opening game vs Boise – solid team, first game rust, pulled out a win. Loss at OK State – completely new team, long travel, OK State Coach came out and said Oregon was tipping plays. Vs Portland State – scorched earth 84-0. Yeah, the OK State game is a black eye but casting this team off like they have leprosy in 15 B.C. is just crazy. They head down to USC – out for blood – to take on a Trojans team that hasn’t looked particularly impressive against C tier talent. Ultimately, Oregon is going to score and I think the defense is going to force turnovers that extend the lead to double digits. Feels like a game where Dan Lanning and Oregon remind everyone they are still a national title contender winning by multiple scores over a ranked team. You want to talk about a mismatch? Look no further than the head of the snakes.. Dan Lanning is going to be bouncing Lincoln Riley on his knee spanking his bum bum by half time. Ducks fly high, 45-27.
Bama -12 vs SCar (1 unit): Slate wasn’t speaking to me but this number stopped me in my tracks. What’s going on here. Giving Bama the benefit of the doubt against FSU – Deboer has a Norvell problem and this FSU team just has a way of making it a messy game. Bama DC Kane Wommack took some flack after allowing 36 points to Florida State and is on the record guaranteeing his defense will show up Saturday against LaNorris Sellers and Nyck Harbor. Sellers has struggled through three games this season with 5 tuds and 3 ints. Meanwhile, Keelon Russell seems to be coming into his own. I get Bama isn’t what they used to be but we are still talking about teams at the complete opposite ends of the SEC spectrum. I’m expecting Bama’s defense to circumcise the Cocks offense and hold them under 21. I’m betting a Bama offense averaging 47 PPG can get to 35. Too many weapons for the Scar secondary to keep up with. Tide rolls 38-20
Week 4 Leans (0.5 units):
Indiana -20.5 vs Northwestern (Friday Night): Like what Northwestern is doing here but this is a ‘men amongst boys’ situation.
Louisville vs Wake Forest over 57.5: Louisville is an agent of chaos.
Florida vs Ole Miss: Either team going to need 30+ to win. Question marks all over the Florida defense.
UVA -19.5 vs Delaware: Class warfare here – different levels. Believer in Pribula and the Cavs.
Iowa +5.5 at Michigan: Low scoring affair – I’ll take an Iowa team capable of wining outright, with the points.
Rent is due.
Yours truly,
William Tickets
Comments