College Football - Week 1 (9/3/2026)

College Football – Week 1

2025 Premium Plays Record: 39-35 (+11 units)

2025 Leans Record: 26-28 (-1 unit)

All Time Premium Plays Record (Est. 2023): 134-105-5 (+64 units)

All Time Leans Record (Est. 2023): 89-82-3 (+4 units)

All Time Overall Combined Record (Est. 2023): 223-187-8 (+68 units)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: The year is… 2026, and to the dismay of haters and losers across the globe… William Tickets is alive and well entering the fourth iteration of College Football picks, brought to you by Spo’s Sports. 3 full years picking games. Guaranteed as a treasury bill. You stick to the script laid before you and you will leave profitable. As always, the hurdle will be finding our boys. Those who have been here from the jump remember the teams that lined our pockets all year: Florida State in 2023, Illinois in 2024, North Texas in 2025. A couple teams already jumping off the page as potential candidates but as we know this is a meritocracy around here. Nothing is given. You gotta show me something to be a mainstay in the Tickets lineup.

Week 1 Preview: Per usual, slim pickings in this week 1 slate as the bulk of teams went out and scheduled a buy game. Had to search high and low for a single digit spread but there are a handful of intriguing matchups and totals out there that have my attention. Let’s get it on.

Week 1 Premium Plays:

Washington vs Washington State over 47.5 (2 units): The Washington Huskies (My boys watchlist) facing off against Washington State (former boys, RIP Mike Leach) in the Apple Cup. I love this Washington Huskies team and think they are a dark horse to make the playoff led by HC Jedd Fisch and QB Demond Williams. The huskies averaged 34 points per game a year ago and largely returned the same team who hung 59 on Wazzou a year ago. The tea leaves are pointing towards an improved Wazzou defense but we still have a new regime in Pullman which will likely start a bit shaky. Wazzou DC Trent Bray doesn’t exactly have a track record that instills confidence. A year ago he was hired to coach his alma mater, Oregon State, and was subsequently fired after starting the season 0-7. Not ideal. Fortunately for our purposes, I don’t think we will have to rely soley on the Huskies to get to our number. Despite the Huskies returning the majority of defensive production a year ago, the Cougars should be able to get on the board a couple times behind the arm of transfer senior QB Caden Pinnick who threw for 3200 yards and 32 TD’s a year ago. Bottom line, the Huskies could hit this number by themselves but I think we get some participation from the Cougars. Washington calls animal control on the Cougars.. but not before giving us 17 points, 41-17 Huskies.

Clemson at LSU under 51.5 (1 unit): Feel this one in my nuggies. What an absolute clown show we have going on in Baton Rouge. Lane doing Lane things. We have complete roster turnover, Lane bringing his guys in, and the guy is still shopping the portal for NFL flame outs. What are we doing here. Literal angel and devil on the shoulder here. The angel in Clemson, SC has been on his soapbox since NIL started. Yes, LSU has a talented roster but Sam Leavitt didn’t exactly light it up last year… and Clemson is starting a guy that hasn’t been able to sniff the field in since he started at Clemson in 2023. Mind you, Clemson’s offense hasn’t exactly been electric. What Clemson does have is a great defense anchored by the front and a coach who knows how to keep things interesting. I think the side show in Baton Rouge makes its way to the field and a rock fight ensues. I’ll take LSU to win, I guess… 21-14.

Florida State +3 vs SMU (1 unit): I take no pride in making this pick. I also would like to point out this is not a homer pick. However, when Vegas lays out some cheese, I am forced to investigate. Let me tell you what this is some stinky stinky cheese. Similar situation to the USC/Fresno State game in a way where Mike Norvell has one under his belt and is quite literally coaching for his career. It’s back to the G6 sooner rather than later if he cannot come up with a win here. He will inevitably end back up in the G6 but you get the point. The ‘beatable’ area to focus on with SMU is their defensive secondary and getting to the edges on the ground. Conveniently, Mike Norvell has an offense that is designed to get outside and has Deuce Robinson to take advantage of the secondary. The offense that beats this SMU defense is exactly what Norvell has been attempting to do with his Gus Malzahn offspring set. Feeling here similar to Bama at FSU a year ago. Noles get a big win and the clown show continues in Tallahassee, 28-24.

Oklahoma State -13.5 at Tulsa (1 unit): Early frontrunner to be my absolute boys this year are the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Tickets has had an affinity for the pokes dating back to the Gundy days. You may be wondering why I am bullish on them this year… Funny enough, my absolute boys from North Texas a year ago all just went to OK State. A grand total of 16 players made their way from Denton to Stillwater along with the majority of the coaching staff. Key players are Heisman frontrunner (in my book) Drew Mestemaker and star sophomore running back Caleb Hawkins. Tulsa finished 4-8 a season ago and registered the 94^th total defense allowing 182 yards on the ground and over 200 through the air. On the other side of the ball, let’s call it what it is, the North Texas offense was the top ranked offense in the country a year ago totaling over 500 yards of total offense per game. Tulsa will be improved from a year ago but I like the Pokes to outpace Tulsa in the opener. OK State matches their win total from a year ago, 38-21.

USC -21 vs Fresno State (1 unit): A game under the belt for Lincoln Riley in a season where he needs to win early, often, and convincingly. A 16 point win vs San Jose State wasn’t ideal but you knock the rust off and have another scrub to get rolling against. Jayden Maiava looked the part at QB, RB King Miller averaged 6 yards a clip on the ground last year with an improved Oline this year. Fresno State defense plays particularly well against G6 teams (268 yards per game) but got exposed against P4 teams (455 yards per game). Lincoln Riley needs a blowout here and has the matchup to do it. The Trojans were in the media all week about their attendance issues and lackluster start. I expect some aggression out of USC this week. Trojans walk the dog, 45-17

Week 2 Leans:

Miami at Stanford +7.5 1Q: Sleepy Palo Alto. East going way out west. Stanford with a win under the belt…

Illinois -16.5 1H vs UAB: UAB was atrocious last year on defense and is completely starting over this year.   

Duke/Tulane under 51.5: New faces all the way around. Manny Diaz stamps this one with that trademarked defense.

UNLV -3 at Hawai’i: Dan Mullen must win. This was a premium play but the rock scares me.

Indiana -40.5 vs North Texas: Can’t hand out a 40-point spread as a premium play but North Texas was left with their cupboards bare after the departure of HC Eric Morris.

JMU -6 vs Liberty: Bob Chesney has departed taking with him some key pieces, but JMU is one of those teams that seems to always have the next man up ready to roll. Liberty was bad last year and on paper is worse this year.

Glad to be back.

Sincerely,

William Tickets