CFB 2025 Week 3 Picks -- The Sporacle

Last Week: 8-0 Overall (+22.2u)

Full Season: 22-3 Overall (+40.54u)

Last Week Recap:

The Sporacle has once again foretold, and such foretelling has once again been fulfilled. It doesn’t get much better than an 8-0 clean sweep in Week 2 of the college football season, fellas.

A lesser man would be overcome with hubris and allow this taste of success to cloud his judgement and interfere with his ability to provide locks going into Week 3, but not this Sporacle. You know what I said when I realized we’re up 40 units just 3 short weeks into the CFB season? Good. Let’s get another 40. And back to the lab I went to cook up this week’s finest concoction of locks.

I hope everyone has met the newest member of our team, Darnell “Doc” Smokes, and if you haven’t read his first article yet, I encourage you to take a look here. The Doc is a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed youngster that will bring a different type of enthusiasm around these parts, and we are very fortunate to have him on the squad.

Billy Tickets, on the other hand, is absolutely battling for his life right now. The good news is that I believe his week-long hangover from his month-long bender has finally subsided, and there is hope that the kid can return to the form we all know he is capable of. I’m in your corner, Billy.

Regarding this week’s games, this is far and away the sharpest the lines have been throughout this point of the season. Bookies and linemakers alike are especially dialed in as they financially cannot withstand another week of heisting that has occurred through these first 3 weeks. We will also be prudent and pick our spots wisely and avoid any landmines these shysters throw in our path.

Enough chit chat. Let’s roll.

Picks:

Houston -3.5 -120 vs Colorado (3.6u)

This is a well we will look to drink from all season long. In simple terms, this Colorado team is just in shambles.

With the news that 3^rd stringer Ryan Staub will be taking the snaps at QB this week, it’s clear that there’s something bad wrong in Boulder right now. Coach Prime brings in highly coveted transfer QB Kaidon Salter, along with highly ranked HS QB recruit Julian Lewis, and in Week 3, we’re trotting out Ryan Staub to start the game? Salter and Lewis alone probably account for at least a quarter of this team’s NIL budget, and they both will be on the bench in Houston while Staub gets the start.

The only explanation here (and you would know this if you read my Futures article) is that there is a massive rift between Salter and Lewis. It’s probable that Coach Prime promised both of these kids the starting job to lure them to come to Boulder, but that promise has obviously not been kept (and never was going to be kept), and in turn a divide has been created between the QBs and likely the locker room.  And now Prime is the kindergarten teacher putting both kids in timeout. Genius.

Regarding the actual game, anyone who knows ball knows Willie Fritz is going to turn these Houston Cougars around, and he’s going to do it quickly. Transfer QB Conner Weigman is healthy this year and has abstained from seed oils this offseason which is great for the offense, and this Houston defense flies to the ball on the other side. Houston has all new coordinators with something to prove, and look for the Cougars to keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes.

Too much turmoil with Deion & Co., and the Cougars officially put themselves on the map with a win on ESPN vs the TikTok Buffs.

Bama -20.5 -120 vs Wisconsin (4.8u)

This feels so dangerous, but The Sporacle will not be discouraged by a fishy line.

After getting spanked like a bad three-year-old in Week 1 against the Noles, the Crimson Tide showed a major response last week, albeit against Louisiana Monroe. Unfortunately for the Badgers, their starting QB Billy Edwards Jr. went down with an injury last week, and is doubtful to play in Tuscaloosa come Saturday.

At the end of the day, that won’t really matter anyways because this will be a full blown curbstomping. This Kalen Deboer Bama team plays differently at home, and this team now has a fire under their ass after the Tide left Tallahassee with egg on their face.

This Wisconsin offense just does not have the firepower to compete in this game, and while the Badgers may be able to keep it close for a quarter or two, Bama will run away with this one as the Wisconsin boys melt in that Alabama sun.

Give me the Tide, and give me the Tide BIGLY.

Arkansas 1H +4.5 -115 vs Ole Miss (2.3u)

This pick seemed a lot sharper earlier in the week when I decided on it, but I will not allow the squares to take my position. Firmly standing my ground with this one.

Ole Miss went down early to Kentucky last week, but fought back and was able to escape Lexington with a W in large part due to their run game. Rumors swirled in Oxford earlier in the week that Austin Simmons was in a walking boot and absent from practice, but Simmons has since been removed from the injury report, as has RB Kewan Lacy, so they are expected to go for the Rebs this weekend.

While I think the Rebs may end up winning this game, I think they will start slow once again this week as they were fully invested in getting their lick back against the Wildcats last week, while the Razorbacks were probably looking ahead to this conference matchup.

I said this before the season, but these Razorbacks will give a lot of teams a good fight this season, and I expect this game to be one of them. QB Taylen Green is electric, and I expect him to give this Ole Miss defense some trouble, at least in the first half.

Sammy Pittman is 10-4-1 ATS as an Away Dog versus ranked teams at Arky, and it would not be that much of a surprise to see the Lane Train stub his toe against an inferior opponent once again. Not to mention the Lane to Gainesville narrative is fully in motion, which is just another added distraction.

Give me Pig Sooie and the points in the first half in this one.

Clemson -3 EVEN vs Ga Tech (2u)

Hands down the most interesting matchup of the weekend right here.

This Clemson team has looked underwhelming to start the season, and Brent Key has finally been unveiled to the masses, hence the massive line shift on this spread. However, when others zig, we zag.

While it is true Clemson has looked like poopoo through two weeks, this scenario played out last season, and we saw the Tigers ultimately win the ACC and give Texas a scare in the playoffs. While it absolutely pains me to go against my guy Brent Key, the pendulum has swung too far.

I do like this Yellowjacket team, but I am concerned with the status of Haynes King. The guy is playing through a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and was held out last week, and while he is expected to play on Saturday, I have my doubts that he will play up to his usual standard. Tech does have a great backup QB in Aaron Philo (Key has called his QB Room the best in the country), so it won’t be the end of the world if he is inserted, but he just doesn’t pose the running threat that King does.

Cade Klubnik has been taking the bulk of the blame for Clemson’s disappointing start, and Coach Swinney himself has even taken some shots at his own QB, but I expect these shots to give Klubnik some extra fire heading into this contest. I think the Tigers come out HOT in this one.

Georgia Tech has been pretty sloppy to start games themselves this season producing a lot of turnovers on offense, and if the Tigers do grab a lead early, look for Tech to press a little and potentially make some fatal mistakes.

I think discounting this Tigers this early in the season is ill-advised, and I’ll gladly lay the 3 points at even odds.

Sorry, Brent.

Vanderbilt ML +135 vs South Carolina (1.5u)

Hate him or love him, Diego Pavia and these Dores are must-watch entertainment. This Vanderbilt team has been running their mouths all week, and this is going to be a high-intensity contest in Columbia on Saturday night.

These two do have a common opponent in Va Tech, who they both bested, and while Vandy fell behind early against the Hokies last week, they came out in the second half and just dominated. The same cannot be said for the Cocks, who squeaked out a win against the same Hokies a week earlier sheerly off the patented Beamer Ball.

Vandy HC Clark Lea is finally getting some recognition (mostly because of his appearance on the SEC Netflix series), but nonetheless, the recognition is deserved. This Vandy team has a new pit bull-like identity, which is totally contrary to the wine & cheese mentality that has been ingrained in the Vanderbilt culture forever.

On top of that, I did not buy the South Carolina/LaNorris Sellers hype all offseason, and I’m damn sure not buying it now. If Vandy can limit Sellers’s effectiveness on the ground and handle the hostile environment of Brice-Williams Stadium, the Dores should walk away victorious.

We’ll keep the units small here as this will be a dogfight, but I’m taking the better QB and the team with an identity in this one. Anchor Down.

Kentucky -26 -110 vs Eastern Michigan (2.2u)

You think Mark Stoops is motivated after losing a lead to Ole Miss last week? I sure as hell do.

To put it simply, Mark Stoops needs every win he can get at this point, and doing so in a dominating fashion will only help his cause. On the other side, Eastern Michigan is one of the worst teams in all of FBS football.

Kentucky QB Zach Calzada got banged up last week and his status is unclear heading into this matchup, and Lexington native Cutter Boley (there may not be a more Kentucky name than “Cutter”) looks due to get some serious burn this week, which I think can only help the Cats. Boley looked good against lesser opponents last season, and I expect him to get a lot of run this week as the Wildcats head into a bye week.

Yeah, kid is definitely from Lexington

Eastern Michigan has been gutted on the ground thus far this season, and that is not ideal going up against the ground and pound scheme of Kentucky.

Give me the Cats to win in a blowout to head into the bye week on a high note.

Tennessee TT Under 21.5 -110 vs UGA (2.2u)

Straight history play on this one.

The Vols have not gotten the best of the Dawgs in Knoxville since 2015 and the Mark Richt days, and the Dawgs seemingly just have the recipe to take down the Vols. In fact, the Dawgs have won 8 straight against the Vols under Coch Smart, and this week will make it 9 straight.

In layman’s terms, Kirby Smart has the dogs to shut down this Tennessee offense, and it will be no surprise to ball knowers when history inevitably repeats itself on Saturday. They can stop the run, and they have the athletes in the secondary to matchup with Heupel’s elongated screen game.

While Gunner Stockton is no Heisman winner, he can manage this offense well enough to score enough points to win this ball game. I think the first team to 20 wins this game, and I highly doubt the Vols even get to this number.

On top of that, Tennessee is without their 2 starting CBs, and Tenn QB Joey Aguilar has struggled mightily with turnovers against competent defenses in the past.

I don’t see good ole Rocky Top having the horses to get past this Dawg defense.

Take the Tennessee TT Under.

Notre Dame -6.5 -110 vs Texas A&M (2.2u)

Really weird matchup here in South Bend.

Notre Dame has played one game (and lost) against Miami, and TAMU has been gashed on the ground through 2 games against really bad opponents.

With that said, I think this is a great spot and matchup for The Irish. I’m not sounding the fraud alert sirens on Marcus Freeman yet, but a loss against this TAMU team would get me closer to doing so, especially considering the matchup.

TAMU has had the worst Run D in CFB thus far, and Notre Dame’s bread and butter (or what should be their bread and butter) is to run the damn ball. I think Marcus Freeman regrets not getting Jeremiyah Love more touches in that Miami game, so expect The Irish to pound it on the ground early and often in this one.

Additionally, TAMU QB Marcel Reed was listed as questionable earlier in the week (he’s expected to play), but he won’t be at full strength. I also expect ND QB CJ Carr to settle in at home this week, as he appeared pretty rattled in the first half against Miami 2 weeks ago.

Look for Coach Freeman to have his team ready to go from the jump after an extra week to prepare. Lay the points take the Catholics.

Stanford +14 -110 vs Boston College (1.65u)

Hold your nose, cover your eyes, click some buttons, and sit back and watch. Straight system play here.

This Stanford team may very well be the worst team in the P5, and I think this BC team is mildly decent. However, the Eagles are coming off a heartbreaking OT loss in East Lansing last week, and now have to travel across the country to Silicon Valley to take on this anemic Cardinal team. Oh, and the game is at 10:30 EST, which does not bode well for the Eagles.

You know these Stanford eggheads have run the analytics on the effects of the travel wear that will affect BC, and I think Stanford will find that they need to come out swinging early against a worn-down Eagles team.

This play is not for the faint of heart. Proceed at your own risk.

Florida ML +225 vs LSU (1u)

***THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDED PLAY***

Let me take you through my own selfish logical reasoning here.

Billy Napier is not a good head coach. He can’t get 11 guys on the field for special teams. He’s got players literally spitting in opposing players’ faces on game-changing drives. DJ Lagway looks like he drank a fifth of methanol and has since gone blind and lost all motor function. Things are not looking good in Gainesville. In fact, they’re looking BAD. REAL BAD.

But…….we’ve seen this before. Napier should have been fired halfway through last season, but the corrupt athletic department in Gainesville gave Billy the opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle and save himself. And that’s exactly what he did.

And while I can nearly assure you that this won’t happen this year, this is a play for ME. Because look at it this way.

If Gator Billy, only by the grace of God, somehow salvages this season and his job, that is a major WIN for myself and Nole fans. How so? The guy is a complete non-threat to Florida State Football, and having a non-threat at UF is more important than the Gatas having one really bad season.

It’s similar to your girlfriend having a gay best friend. Yeah, it sucks to hang out with the gay best friend – he definitely doesn’t know ball, and probably wants to talk about Love Island or Caleb Williams’s new nail polish or some other bullshit – but said gay best friend is a confirmed non-threat, and it’s better than your girlfriend having a non-gay best friend. Understood?

I say all that to say: Billy Napier, you are the gay best friend. And we’re damn happy you’re here, and we hope you stay our gay best friend forever.

And if the Gators do lose? Well, then the Gators season is over in Week 3 and their recruiting class becomes ours. Win-win scenario.

One Two Three Fo Five. Then the Gata don’t take no jive.

Please watch

Teaser: West Virginia +19.5/Miami -5.5/Bama -9/LSU +5 12pt Teaser EVEN (2u)

The Mountaineers keep it respectable in the Backyard Brawl. Alex Golesh and USF’s run stops in Miami. Bama waxes the cheese curds. And realistically Brian Kelly ain’t losing to Gator Billy again.

Conclusion:

Don’t get crazy this weekend. Vegas is looking to make their lick back and don’t let it be at your expense. Play smart, play calculated. See you next week.

Signing Off,

The Sporacle