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3/30/23 Valero Texas Open Bets

Valero Texas Open Bets and Picks



Welcome to the first PGA Betting post. This Thursday we fire it up at TPC San Antonio Oaks Course for the Valero Texas Open. Let's take a look at who we're riding.




Course/Weather

Pretty average course this week for Tour standards. Tips out to a little under 7,500 yards so Off-The-Tee play will be important this week. Moderately tight fairways with relatively small penalty for missing them, but avoiding the big miss will be key. As always, looking for good ball strikers that can stick it close. These greens run slow and guys like Matt Kuchar, Ben Griffin, and Corey Conners have shown success on these greens. Bunker play is an added element this week as the course underwent an update in 2021 that "will be an enhancement both in playability and aesthetics". We shall see what that means.


As for the weather, I am seeing potential showers Thursday morning, with the wind picking up as the day progresses. Friday is the opposite, with the wind blowing early in the morning and settling down in the afternoon. This certainly gives us a weather edge when building our DFS lineups. Advantage AM/PM wave.



Bets


Outrights


Rickie Fowler +1600 1u


Are you not human? Do you not want to see Rickie in the Masters? The guy has been probably the most overhyped golfer we've seen in the past 10-15 years, but you know what? He's been playing great golf recently. Compared to the field this week, Rickie ranks 9th in SG: TOT, 10th in T2G, and 13th in Ball Striking. Top 20 in putting on these slow bermudas combined with all the motivation in the world, I'll throw a bone on ole Rick for the one time.

Taylor Montgomery +2500 1u


Honestly don't have much behind this pick besides the fact that I think Montgomery is one of the better talents in this field, and he tends to do well in lesser tournaments. With his putter anything is possible.


Eric Cole +6600 0.75u


This guy has been on fire with his approach the past 5 tournaments. Might not be the best course fit as Cole struggles with his driver, but if he can avoid the big miss and continue his stellar iron play, I like him to contend.


Alex Smalley +6600 0.5u


Model absolutely loves this guy this week. OTT, APP, and recent form all check out. Bad bunker player, but tends to play well in smaller tournaments. Finished 4th at the Houston Open in November if you are a course region guy


Hayden Buckley +10000 0.5u


This my be my favorite bet and I'm thinking of adding another half unit. Model loves him, he's great off the tee, and he showed flashes of contending with his 2nd place finish at the Sony Open. Before the Players where he gained 1.6 stokes on approach, Buckley lost strokes on APP 3 tournaments in a row. Maybe he found something at the Players? Not sure, but I'll buy it.


Kevin Chappell +15000 .5u


Got tipped on this one by a buddy, Chappell comes in with good form and great course history, including a win here in 2017. Great value on a guy that loves this course.


JB Holmes +100000 0.25u


Not gonna sugarcoat anything, I'm not sure why but JB Holmes has been stuck in my head all week. I have no reasoning to back him whatsoever, but oh well. Trust your intuition for $5 and the chance to turn that into $5,000? Yes please.



Top 20:


Cam Davis +180 1u


Besides his 6th place finish at the Players, 2023 has been a year to forget about for Cam Davis. With that being said, he is just more talented than 80% of this field and was lights out at the Players.


Eric Cole +325 1u


Piggybacking off the outright, +325 is just too juicy here. 1 unit.


Davis Riley EVEN 2.5u


Is this a joke? Riley is undoubtedly a top 10 golfer in this field, if not top 5. Was expecting this to be around -140 at least so we will hammer


Ryan Fox +180 3u


Oh boy, do I love this bet. Not only is Fox one of my favorite golfers, he has all the incentive to perform this week. If he finishes T21 or better, Fox will gain special temporary membership on Tour for the rest of the season. Combine this incentive with the fact that Fox is constantly mispriced on books, we are making this our biggest bet of the week


Matchups


Adam Schenk over Andrew Putnam -105 3u


This one's pretty simple. Good golfer vs bad golfer. Don't be mistaken by Putnam's performance last week at WGC Match Play, he has missed 4 of 5 cuts prior to that and hasn't gained T2G in any of those 5. Schenk has been a made cut machine recently, just keep riding.



Guys We Are Avoiding


- Tyrell Hatton: bad value, probably tuning up for the Masters


- Hideki Matsuyama: WD'd from WGC Match Play and will certainly be looking to get in form/healthy for Augusta. DO NOT BET.



That's all for bets for the Valero, if anything other bets are taken I will either edit the post or add them to the comments. DFS Plays soon to come!



























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