Overview:
We’re officially a week away from Week 0 of College Football, and it feels like I have ants in my pants. StickRick and I will have our picks out for Week 0 in the next few days, but as I was scouring the books to check out the lines, I found a VERY big mistake made by the bookmakers in a Week 1 matchup.
Now this matchup is one straight from Hell, and reminds me of the age-old question “flaming homosexual son or OnlyFans daughter?” – both options are just downright abominable and will make you want to drink bleach, but unfortunately there is no “Option C”. It’s a “gun to your head” type of pick, and I will be boots on the ground here, so it is a
must-bet.
Fortunately for us, we have the opportunity to make a buck off of these detestable teams, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do.
Hop on this line now as it’s certainly going to move as we work towards gameday.
Now follow me.
The Pick: Miami -2.5 @ UF (5u)
Boy oh boy have the bookmakers fucked this one up.
Don’t get me wrong, I mortally despise both of these teams (frankly, I hate Miami more), but this line is just straight up WRONG – let’s just take a look at both teams roster here for a second.
UF:
For UF, they bring back “HeisMertz” at QB (and yes, there is a decent amount of Gata fans that actually call him this), and honestly, he was better than I expected him to be last year – he’s not great by any means, but he is a solid game manager.
The issue is, I’m not sure who the fuck he’s gonna throw the ball to – the only proven weapons he has are Eugene Wilson at WR and Montrell Johnson at RB
They did add 2 WRs in the portal, but according to reports, Elijah Badger (the higher rated WR transfer) has had trouble adjusting to the system, and it’s not even known if he will start. And multiple UF “insiders” report they need an instant impact from freshmen this year. Not great, Bob.
Add in the fact that Montrell Johnson just had a “minor knee procedure” and hasn’t practiced all fall, along with a completely open “battle” for the starting RG and RT spots, this offense is an absolute shitshow – and we haven’t even gotten to the defense yet.
On D, they bring back only 6 starters, and their best player from last year (Princely Umanmielen) left for greener pastures – and with their DT3 (Jamari Lyons) going down for the season, and their DT transfer (Joey Slackman) being absent from practice this week, they are mightily thin on that front 4
Their starting LBs are the strongest part of the team, but behind Shemar James and Grayson Howard, things get pretty iffy.
They add a few DBs from the portal to try to put a band-aid over their atrocious secondary, but no one they added moves the needle for me – I don’t expect to see too much improvement from that room.
Miami:
For the Canes, they bring in Cam Ward at QB, who was a hot commodity out of the transfer portal – I have seen some questioning his ability to play on the road, which could be valid, and we know he is turnover prone, but to that I say: I DON’T CARE
You’re going to compare playing QB at Washington State to playing QB at Miami??? That’s like comparing Oscar Pistorious to Usain Bolt – you just can’t do it, because the former is literally fucking crippled.
We know head coach Mario Cristocuck always has a great OL unit, so there shouldn’t be any questions there.
Around Ward, they’ve added Damien Martinez at RB, who’s a 2-time 1st Team Pac12 guy, and they also return their top 2 WRs in Restrepo and George – it’s safe to say this offense is head and shoulders better than UF’s, and Cam Ward will be working with a new caliber of weapons.
Miami’s Front 7 is where I think the biggest difference is in this game.
They bring back Rueben Bain, who could potentially be an All-American this season after posting 7.5 sacks last year as a freshman, and also Francisco Mauigoa, another guy with 7.5 sacks last year – they’ve brought in a handful of guys with starting experience to complement these two stars, so that front 7 is going to be pretttttyyyy, prettttyyyy good.
Their secondary is the big question mark for this team, and this is where UF could take advantage, but I just don’t think they will – that Gator OL is going to get thrown around like a frat groupie and Mertz is going to be running for his life – Mertz won’t have the time to pick apart this Miami secondary.
The objection to taking Miami here is “dehhh it’s in the Swamp” and “dehhh Cristocuck bad coach dehhh”
While I agree the Swamp is not where you want to be playing Game 1 with a new QB, the talent discrepancy is just too much to overcome for the Gata
And while Cristocuck is undeniably a horrific coach himself, are you saying Sun Belt Billy is much better? The man is utilizing a fucking “special teams mat” this year because half the time they had 10 men on punt coverage last year – I mean, they don't call him Billy Taggart for nothing.
The coaching difference is a wash, the Swamp will give the Gata a few points, but Miami has the better roster, and it’s really not even close
All in all, I see this game staying close the first half, but once UF starts to wear down in the trenches, Miami will pull away handily in the second half
Go ahead and lock this one in, and let's start out hot.
Spo Out.
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