Week 9 College Football
Week 8 Premium Plays: 2-2 (even)
Week 8 Leans: 4-0 (+2 units)
Premium Play Overall Record: 27-13 (+23 units)
Leans Overall Record: 14-14-1 (even)
Combined Overall Record: 41-27-1
Week 8 Summary: Michigan prints us money. Leans back on track. USC so bad.
Week 9 Premium Plays
Oregon -6.5 (3 units): Skip Bayless meme “ITS MY TURN”. Gotta hit a 3 unit bet eventually. I tapped this bad boy bright and early Monday morning at -6 and again at -6.5. According to my models this will be closer to -7.5 by kick. Utah is up there in my top 5 for most fraudulent teams. They are on their 3rd quarterback of the season (maybe fourth) and finally think they found the guy to drive the bus until Rising comes back. Bryson Barnes has started the last two games after taking over for a miserable Nate Johnson. In the two games Barnes started, He has passed for a total of 360 yards against Cal and USC. I think his performance against USC (235 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 Int) is giving Utah a false sense of security. The deaf football team from the AT&T commercial could hang 30 on USC. Utah is running (literally) in to an Oregon front that has averaged less than 100 yards on the ground this season. Utah is going to keep the ball on the ground as long as they can but Barnes is going to have to throw eventually to stay in this one. If the Utes cannot find success on the ground, I do not see them finding success through the air as they have struggled against man defense this season… Oregon ranks among the nation’s highest in percentage of snaps in man coverage. Utah’s defense is good enough to keep them in it for the first half but Oregon ultimately pulls away late, 34-17. If this where a night game under the lights in Rice Eccles it would change everything. 3:30 kick, Ducks take flight.
Oklahoma State -7 (2 units): This may be Gundy’s best work as a coach. This is a team that squeaked past Central Arkansas and got absolutely skull fucked by South Alabama in September. I was licking my chops when I saw lines for their 3 most recent opponents: Kansas State (preseason top 15, will finish in top 25), Kansas (5-2 currently #23, and West Virginia (4-3). Oklahoma State beat all 3 by at least a touchdown and I went 0-3 fading the pokes. Cincinnati comes to Stillwater as a 7 pointdog and a QB that loves to turn the ball over. This is a program reeling after losing their only claim to relevancy in the offseason in Luke Fickel (Matt Campbell take notes on how to level up). Cincy is 2-5 with losses coming to Baylor, Iowa State, BYU, Oklahoma, and Miami (Ohio). Oklahoma State may just find themselves in the top 25 after this week and are certainly capable of running it up on Cincinnati. I think the pokes light up Cincy, 30-13.
Wisconsin +14.5 (1 unit): We have seen Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, and Washington all stub their toe after a tango with a top 10 team. I will go on record here saying I do not think Wisconsin is good at football but I do think they have an opportunity to catch Ohio State flat footed and keep this one between the number. Fickel is out of his element in Wisconsin as he is forced to play an Iowa-esque style of football. I think they drag an inept Ohio State offense in to the mud and keep this one low scoring and close. I like a no sweat 21-10 cover with Ohio State tacking on some points late to put this out of reach.
Louisville -4.5 (1 unit): If Leonard plays, I am not taking this. Will monitor up until kick. However, love the number if Leonard is riding the pine. Louisville fell victim to a let-down game at Pitt on a Thursday night. Huge overreaction by Vegas in my opinion on this line with a Riley Leonard-less Duke team traveling to Louisville. Who knows what true freshman Duke ahs backing this guy up. Duke has a good defense but Jack Plummer will take the top off eventually and Duke just wont be able to keep up. You saw last week when Florida State beat the breaks off Duke, once the run game got going it was over. I expect Duke to establish the run, take the top off, repeat. Gameplan as old as the game itself. Again, this play depends on the health of Riley Leonard. Assuming Leonard is out, Louisville 31-10.
Leans (0.5 units each)
Maryland -14: Large spread on paper but I think Vegas has it dialed correctly. I expect public to get on Northwestern. Luckily, you have a sharp (me, Bill) making you aware of this now. Maryland is a good team that hasn’t seen the light of day nationally since September. Terps roll 38-17.
West Virginia +7: Cover machine Mountaineers keep this between the number here.
Colorado State +14: Want to make this clear, I am not pulling for the troops to lose. Hangover game after an emotional game against Navy last week for Air Force. Colorado State has been frisky but has atrocious run defense. The dudes in the tight jumpsuits 31- Colorado State 21.
Kentucky +3.5: Wildcats under the lights at Kroger Field. Big Blue and Mark Stoops find a way to win outright.
Florida State -20: Pass rush feasts on a banged up QB and an O-line that has allowed the most QB hits in the nation
All My Best,
Bill T
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