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Week 14 College Football

Week 14 College Football (Conference Championship Week)


Week 13 Premium Plays: 2-2-2 (+2 units)


Week 13 Leans: 4-3 (+0.5 units)


Premium Play Overall Record: 46-21-2 (+41 units)


Leans Overall Record: 27-27-2 (even)


Combined Overall Record: 73-48-4 (+41 units)


Week 13 Summary: Managed to remain profitable with some textbook unit management. The only thing I regret is not betting more on Northwestern. What a team.


Week 14 Preview: Vegas has their fingers all over this week looking to take advantage of all the squares out there. Thank your lucky stars you have a guy like me in your corner. Lines are dialed in here.


Week 14 Premium Plays:


FRIDAY ACTION


New Mexico State/Liberty over 57.5 (1 unit): Two offenses that are no stranger to moving the ball. How well will Liberty move the ball against a stingy NMSU defense is the question to ask. These two teams got together back in September resulting in a 33-17 Liberty win. Since the September rendition, New Mexico State has found their legs resulting in 8 straight wins to end the season. When I look at this NMSU team I see a team that just gets it done. Whether they have to roll around in the mud for four quarters and grind out a 13-7 win or rack up 38 points to survive a shootout, they get it done. Liberty is going to turn this in to a track meet and NMSU is going to have to figure out a way to keep pace. I’ve got the Sophomore QB, Kaidon Salter, leading the Flames to a 41-20 win over the Aggies.


Oregon -9 (1 unit): I’ll preface this pick by saying I really reallyreally want to take Washington. Who doesn’t? Gifted 10 points to a team they already beat? Sounds too good to be true. I’m sitting here thinking everyone is considering Oregon win and in counting them as a playoff team… Has anyone considered Washington already beat this same team? And then I remember… We have seen this situation before… Egregious line come out, we take the bait, blowout ensues. UGA/Kentucky, UGA/Florida, Florida State/Duke, Penn State/Iowa, the list goes on. Vegas is asking the public to do them a favor and take Washington, and they have.  67% of the handle, 52% of the money, per MGM. Do I think this line is inflated due to early sharp action on Oregon? Yes. Still rolling with an Oregon team who left points on the board and compiled uncharacteristic mistakes in Game 1. Oregon clinches a playoff birth, 38-24.


SATURDAY ACTION


SMU/Tulane over 47.5 (2 units): Holy Wagon… The Pony Express left the station on September 30th and has not looked back. 8 wins in a row and they have hung at least 30 in each onewith 3 fifty pieces mixed in. Tulane came in to the season with high expectations, specifically on the offensive side of the ball with QB Michael Pratt returning for another season in NOLA, which they have not met. Tulane has been able to grind out low scoring wins all season. I think that changes here and we get a total landing around the 60-point mark similar to the Ole Miss/Tulane game from September. Miami Transfer RB Jaylan Knighton is going to garner just enough attention from the defense to allow the Mustangs to do what they do best…. Like your mother at Mardi Gras…. Take the top off, baby. The facilitator, Preston Stone, has been like prime Mario Chalmers out there dishing to anyone and everyone dressed in Red. An absolutely eye popping and almost unbelievable stat…. Preston Stone has completed a pass to 23…. 23 different targets this year. I know their WR room isn’t that deep so I don’t really know who he’s throwing to but he loves to spread the ball around. Everyone gets some love. 8 different wide receivers with 18+ catches. Preston Stone is going to open it up early and often. If you’re going to be in attendance at this one, bring some beads, Tulane defense top is coming off. Don’t have an opinion on a side but it is going over.


Florida State ML (3 units): Word coming out of camp that Tate Rodemaker is in concussion protocol. I am not going to address those rumors or where they came from but the bottom line is this: Vegas has gifted us 5.5 points based on a rumor that Tate is not playing. Tate Rodemaker has not looked particularly good in his appearances this year or against Louisville last year. I see two scenarios unfolding here. 1. Tate Rodemaker plays in an environment that will feel like a home game and we have 5.5 points of value. 2. Brock Glenn starts and he is just as good if not better than Tate and we again have at least 5.5 points of value. Couple additional notes… Brock Glenn has the juice. You could see it the second he stepped on to the field at UF to replace Tate Rodemaker for two plays. Shit eating grin on his face and what does he do? Calls his own number on a QB option play. That tells me two things, Mike has the confidence in him to give him the option and Big Cock Brock has the confidence in himself to call his own number. Even if it is not Brock Glenn but actually Tate Rodemaker who takes the field, I think he will be more relaxed in front of the 3,100 Louisville fans than he was in front of 80k in the swamp. Completely unbiased opinion. Nolessend the hillbillys packing, 31-17.


Leans (0.5 units each)


Bama +6: Surging bama team +6? If I have to


App State +6: Big Game team


Oklahoma State +15: Going against the system here and taking Gundy and his troops here. That man is impossible to pin down.


Iowa First Touchdown: Not sure what the juice is on this but it will be substantial. New OC, nothing to lose, I see some sort of cheese play out of the gate.

 

My playoff prediction is: 1. UGA 2. Michigan 3. Florida State 4. Oregon

 

Sincerely,

 

Bill Tickets

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