Week 13 College Football
Week 12 Premium Plays: 5-2 (+5 units)
Week 12 Leans: 2-3 (-0.5 units)
Premium Play Overall Record: 44-19 (+39 units)
Leans Overall Record: 23-24-2 (-0.5 units)
Combined Overall Record: 67-43-2 (+38.5 units)
Week 12 Summary: Back on track. Just a magical run over the last 13 weeks. Looking to keep it going through bowl season which is arguably the kid’s strong suit. My fan’s only worry over the next two months should be DraftKings or Hardrock plucking me from this job and bringing me on as an oddsmaker. Moment of silence for Jordan Travis.
Week 13 Preview: Rivalry week.
Week 13 Premium Plays:
Ole Miss -10 (2 units): Before anyone tries to jump on me for taking a double digit favorite on the road in the Egg bowl, hear me out. Yes, Will Rogers is back. That doesn’t mean much to me. He barely hit double digits against the worst defense in the league in LSU. State is incapable of running the ball and has a defense ranked in the bottom half of the SEC. Jaxson Dart should have his way with the Bulldogs secondary and Judkins has been a capable RB especially in the redzone. State is lost without a head coach and I see Kiffin taking advantage of a rival during a season to forget for the Bulldogs. I’ll take the much better football team and a coach that tries to cover. Rebels roll 38-21.
Iowa +2 (2 units): Similar to last week, set it and forget it. Do not watch this game. 2 points might as well be a 14 point spread for this Iowa team. I have discussed Nebraska’s new signal caller in past write ups so I am not going to elaborate here. The kid can run (kinda) but cant throw. Iowa played a similar style quarterback in their tilt with Rutgers and shut him out. Vegas wised up and dropped the Nebraska team total under to 13.5 calling for a 14-12 win for the Cornhuskers. I see Iowa squeaking one out here and carrying the momentum in to the B10 title game. Nebraska has been a solid fade this year for us. Lets keep it going. Iowa wins 14-13.
North Texas -3 (1 unit): North Texas QB Chandler Rogers looks to continue his historic season against a UAB defense that would cough up 35 to North Alabama. Rogers has had a solid connection to stud wide receiver Jamori Maclin all season and I expect a big game here as Maclin looks to eclipse 1,000 yards. UAB has a turnover problem which I think is the difference in the game. North Texas puts a stamp on their season with a win over bitter rival UAB in front of the mean green faithful. North Texas 41- UAB 31
Northwestern +6 (2 units): Riding the hot hand here as we profited off this Northwestern team last week. Disrespected here again, the wildcats look to bolster their resume to the bowl committee with a win at Illinois this Saturday. The new ball coach (former interim) has these guys ready to compete week in and week out, now aided by the starting QB who returned last week. Northwestern has come on strong down the stretch with convincing wins over Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue while almost playing upset against Iowa. On the other hand, Illinois has turned the reigns over to back up QB, John Paddock (unbelievable it took them this long). We won’t get to fade Altmyer this week but Paddock is a good alternative totaling 215 pass yards on 47 attempts last week. This is a Northwestern secondary with a nose for the football holding opponents to 177 yards per game through the air ranking them 13th in the nation in pass defense. With a non-existent running game, Paddock will be forced to wear out the shoulder once again. Outright win spot for Northwestern here, 27-17.
Kansas State -10 (1 unit): The Wildcats are still alive in the B12 with a win and a loss by two Oklahoma schools. Iowa State comes to town having saved their season from disaster and seems to be a competent team again. However, Kansas State has proven they love to beat up on bad teams. I am expecting the Wildcats to take advantage of a Cyclones defensive front allowing 125 yards per game on the ground en route to a double digit win at home. Wildcats roll 45-24.
Boston College +10 (1 unit): Number way to high for this one. Miami has secured bowl eligibility and has nothing to play for here. I think an unproven coach and team at BC are going to be chomping at the bit for some shine late in the season. Super bowl for BC. UPDATE: The previous was written when the line was 8.5 and I had this under ‘Leans’. Looks like the number is up to 10 now forcing my hand to put this in the premium play section. Insane number according to my model.
Leans (0.5 units each)
UTSA +3.5: Frank Harris. UTSA has been the better team since his return and could win this outright.
Mizzou -7.5: Drinkwitz rights the ship after last weeks scare. Arkansas really bad.
Oregon -14: Need to win big. Little bit of a trap line in my humble opinion.
Texas -12: Need to win big.
Michigan/OSU under 46: Michigan will run the ball every play if they can. Two good B10 defenses.
Wazzou +16.5: The Apple Cup gets weird. Cam Ward could keep them in this.
Florida State team total over 27.5: Getting 27.5 on Hardrock app. 28.5 on offshore books. Take this at 27.5 only. UF has given up at least 30 points every week since October 7th.
That will do it.
Happy Holidays,
Billy Tickets
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