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Week 12 NFL

Week 12 NFL


Week 9 Premium Plays: 1-3 (-3 units)


Week 9 Leans: 2-3 (-0.5 units)


Week 10 Premium Plays: 1-4 (-3 units)


Overall Premium Play Record: 20-18-1 (+7 units)


Overall Leans Record: 10-16-1 (-3 units)


Combined Overall Record: 30-34-1 (+4 units)


Summary: I considered just scrapping the NFL picks after my no show last week. I realized it wasn’t I lost the love of the game, it was an effort thing. Pouring my heart and soul in to a historic college football run takes it out of you. Here I am, hat in hand, asking for a second shot. Fresh slate, feast week, lets go.


Week 12 Premium Plays:


Dolphins -10 (2 units): Not a number high enough for this one. Dolphins offense looked a little clunky against the Raiders last week mainly in part to the top end Raiders D-line wreaking havoc on the Dolphins O-line. Although the Jets have a top end D-line as well… there’s a big difference. The Raiders offense has been capable of putting up points (relative to who they have at QB). The offense has given the defense something to play for! The opposite is true in New York. How do you consistently jog out on the field after watching 3 and out after 3 and out and put forth your best effort against Tyreek Hill? The rumors of Salah losing the defense, in my humble opinion, are true because he has asked the impossible of them all year and received zero help from the offense. Look for the Dolphins to run this one up. 40-10 Miami.


Packers +7.5 (1 unit): Bet the number not the team. I am not calling for an outright win on Thanksgiving day for the Packers but I do think they keep it between the number. Jordan Love has struggled at times to take care of the ball but a soft Lions defense should give him some breathing room to move the ball down the field. Packers rank in the top 10 of pass defenses but in the bottom 5 of rush defenses. I am looking for a death by one million cuts type of game out of the lions with a healthy dose of Monty and Gibbs. On the other hand, the Lions have a solid front, but issues in the secondary which I think will allow the Packers to stay in this one. I don’t necessarily love the under but I think this one strays far away from a track meet. Lions roar off the strong back, 27-21.


Bills +3.5 (1 unit): I hate betting on the Bills this year. They seem to just be a bad team garnering respect because of Josh Allen (washed?). HOWEVER, I may get some backlash for this one but I think the Eagles might be frauds? Looking at their last 5… Squeaked one out against KC. I don’t think they are that good. Beat the Cowboys…. Largest frauds of the last two decades. Commanders… bad. Miami… potentially fraudulent. Loss to the Jets… fluke. Nonetheless, I am rolling with the number here again. Bills team who may be back on the right track after a 30 point skull fuck of the Jets with Vegas handing us the hook? Count me in. Bills 28-27.


Leans (0.5 units each)


3 unanswered scores – Saints/Falcons – No: Back and forth game.

3 unanswered scores – Jags/Texans – No: Good offenses.


Shoutout to the haters, thanks to all my fans.

 

Sincerely,

 

Will Tickets

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