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Week 10 College Football

Week 10 College Football


Week 9 Premium Plays: 4-0 (+7 units)


Week 9 Leans: 2-3 (-0.5 units)


Premium Play Overall Record: 31-13 (+30 units)


Leans Overall Record: 16-17-1 (-0.5 units)


Combined Overall Record: 47-30-1 (+29.5 units)


Week 9 Summary:


Billy Tickets is back. Hold the applause. Leans were a roller coaster, premium plays were stress free. Also, starting to make sense why Michigan has been printing us money the last few months… Does Billy T have an inside source at Big Blue? World may never know. Can neither confirm nor deny. Oh and Maryland is blackballed.


Week 10 Preview:


The public has been fortunate enough to get off to a blazing start to the college football season which has slowed as of late. When I first laid my eyes on this slate I could feel my heart rate rising because Vegas has laid their trap. Everywhere you look there are rat traps laid with the finest cheeses from the farthest corners of the world. The week of the rat is capped off with the granddaddy of them all. The trap to end all traps. The reverse trap.


Week 10 Premium Plays:


Arkansas +4 (1 unit): NOTE: I got this line at +6, it has since dropped two points since Thursday afternoon. Playing it again at 4 out of solidarity and will be using 4 as the official number. Arkansas heads to the swamp to cap off their road games for the year with a miserable record of 2-6. Deeper dive in to their less than desirable record tells a different story as there is a road trend that plays in favor of the Razorbacks. Their last 3 road games come against Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU. They lost those 3 games by 3,7, and 3 respectively. They seem to play better offensively on the road and will be aided by there superstar running back Rocket Sanders who has been sidelined with a knee injury recently. Additionally, Sam Pitman has handed over play calling duties on the offensive side of the ball to up and coming receivers coach Kenny Guiton. You might remember him from his time at QB for Ohio State from 2010-2013. Florida’s defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed now is tasked with game planning for a new OC. Oh and their best defensive player Shemar James had season ending knee surgery this past week. Additionally, Florida has struggled to stop the run (see Kentucky game) which I expect Arkansas to do a lot of with stud RB back in the backfield. If I don’t have you by now, a little self sabotage on Florida’s part should get you to bite. Leave it up to the big brains at the University of Florida to debut all black uniforms for a noon game in the swamp. I’m taking Arkansas +6, Arkansas +4, Arkansas ML, and over 2.5 UF players to pass out from heat exhaustion. Arkansas gets it done on the road, 28-27


Missouri +16 (1 unit): Georgia seems to be hitting their stridebut this Eli Drinkwitz led Missouri Tigers team is getting zero respect here from Vegas. Yes, I made fun of and faded Eli earlier in the season. Yes, I went on a rant about these 14ish point spreads in a similar situation the last two weeks. I think Missouri is the best team Georgia will play all season by a long shot. The style of offense Missouri plays attacks the weaknesses of the Georgia defense. Alternatively, Missouri has been formidable on defense keeping everything in front of them and forcing their opponent to string together long methodical drives. Georgia defense plays exclusively cover 3 or quarters…. Good news for Mizzou backers is they torch cover 3 AND quarters. Brady Cook and co average a 62% success rate against cover 3 and a 58% success rate against quarters. Georgia heading in to the teeth of their schedule with a home matchup against a more conventional powerhouse in Ole Miss next week… might be peaking ahead a little. Mizzou outright 31-30.


Washington -3 (2 units): Trojans are dead. Caleb Williams is checked out. The trojans are one loss away from free fall which they narrowly last week against Cal (who is no pushover). If you look at USC’s schedule and results they look more like a top 50 .500 team, not a top 25 ranked team. Yes, Washington has struggled the last two games but I think they get up and back on track for this one. O/u set at 76.5 but should really be 105. This is going to be an absolute track meet but I think Penix solidifies himself as a top 3 QB in the draft and keeps their playoff hopes alive. Ultimately, I think Washington gets a defensive stop and USC doesn’t. 113-97 Washington rocks the trojans to bed.


Kansas +3 (2 units): The trap to end all traps. I laughed when I saw this line. Kansas +3 against Iowa State is an absolute joke. Kansas just upset Oklahoma? They are ranked #21? Lance Leipold is out for blood. Oh this has to be a let down spot, right? Iowa State is ready to fire their coach? Iowa State lost to Oklahoma by 30? How could they possibly be favorites in this game? Oh man vegas is dialing up a trap line here for us. Rat trap is sprung… nice delectable block of cheddar cheese laid out for some poor rat to come along… Nope. Reverse trap. The rat runs off with the cheese. Kansas rolls by 20. Iowa State has rattled off 3 wins in a row against teams that Billy Tickets has declared trash in Cincy, Baylor, and TCU. I do not put much weight in to any of those wins. Going against every bone in my body here. Kansas 34-20


Oklahoma State +6 (1 unit): Don’t bite the hand that feeds. Pokes are hot as any team in the country and Oklahoma is reeling after a road trip to Lawrence. I think this is an absolute shootout and Oklahoma State keeps it between the number.


Michigan -32.5 (1 unit): I’ll start by saying this… I love the Connor Stallions story. Part of me wants to think the sign stealing is the sole reason Michigan has been blowing teams out and Purdue is going to change their signs and we are going to have a dog fight this weekend in the big house. Realistically, Jim Harbaugh is going to commit hate crimes on the boilermakers and run the score up as high as he can. Sorry Purdue, lambs to the slaughter. Michigan rolls 57-3.


Alabama/LSU over 61.5 (1 unit): LSU has covered this number in every game this season and Alabama’s offense has shown they can move the ball. Bama is putting up 30. LSU is going to have to hold serve.

 

Leans (0.5 units each)


Minnesota ML: Opportunity to fade Luke Altmyer? On the road? Count me in.


Mississippi State +5: Boots on the ground


Fresno State -2.5: Tough to pin these guys down but they have the better player under center


Florida State -21: Keon Coleman feels FSU was disrespected by the playoff committee. ESPN reporter asked, “what does that disrespect look like”. To which, Coleman responded, “You will find out on Saturday”. Noles by 50.


Ole Miss/TAMu under 53: These two teams have cover that number two times in the last 10 games combined. Both have stingy defenses.


Ole Miss -2.5: Ole Miss much better offensively. Defenses are a wash. 24-14 game.


James Madison -5: Better team.

 

Sincerely,

 

William Tickets

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