Week 4 Premium Play Record: 3-1 (+3 units)
Week 4 Leans Record: 1-3 (-1 unit)
Overall Premium Play Record: 8-5 (+7 units)
Overall Leans Record: 4-8 (-2 units)
Combined Overall Record: 12-13 (+5 units)
Week 4 Summary: 2 and 3 unit plays continue to pump although I may just scrap the leans section. Woke up with a crippling hangover Sunday morning to the London Jaguars thumping the Falcons. Vikings was a sweat but I had the mental awareness to double the stakes with a ML bet down 10-0. Fins getting dogwalked was the most predictable scenario of all time. I let my allegiance cloud my judgement (will be betting the fins again this week). Chargers tried to cuck us but managed to maintain the cover. Pretty uneventful week in the NFL.
Week 5 Preview: This may be my sharpest slate to date. Either sweeping or getting swept, no in between.
Week 5 Premium Plays:
London Jags +5.5 (2 units): This pick seems razor sharp to me. Every square in the US will be launching their max bet $10 wager (we don’t unit shame here) on the Bills to cover the 5.5 after they skullfucked the Dolphins defense and corralled their high flying offense in week 4. Similar to the position heDolphins were in last week, let down game for the Bills across the pond here. Jags seemingly play better in London and have now been there for two weeks embracing their future home while the Bills still have to get acclimated. Jaguars seemed to figure it out last week and I think they keep it close this week. I had this as a 2 unit play but just check the Bills last 3 games compared to Jags and demoted to 1 unit play. Bills seem to be pretty pretttty good. That’s exactly what Joe down the street is looking at, back to 2 units. Bills survive on a game winner, 29-26.
Bengals -3 (3 units): Rare 3 unit play for me. I think this is an absolute mortal back up the brinks truck call your friends and family for money lock. We are talking about a Cardinals team that is actively tanking. New head coach, QB brought in two weeks before the season opener, and a breakout rookie wide receiver has given opposing teams fits through the first 4 games of the season. 4 weeks of film now accumulated, no one overlooking them anymore, Bengals with their back against the wall…. I think this is the week teams start to figure them out. I like Sweet Lou Anarumo (s/o Lou Jr, high school classmate of mine) to shut down Dobbs and company. Bengals coming off an embarrassing loss to the Titans gives them the needed motivation to blow the doors off of the Cardinals. Joe Sheisty on record saying this is the best he has felt all season. I think the Bengals lean on the gas a little bit and win with ease, 31-10.
Steelers +4 (1 unit): Polar opposite weeks for the Steelers and Ravens. Steelers got ran up on by the Stroud Boys while the Ravens ended DTR’s NFL career with one game. I’m betting the situation here. Mike Tomlin + at home + divisional game + 4 point dogs + fresh off a blowout = Steelers cover. Simple math. Potential for Mitch Trubisky to get some shine here as well? Steelers keep it close here.
Dolphins -12 (2 units): I don’t care Vegas is slapping one of the largest spreads of the year on this one. Giants are a teetering on the edge of being a dumpster fire and I think Mike McDanielsgives them the ‘coup-de-grace’ with a good ol fashioned shitpumping this week. The Dolphins may not be the large Super Bowl favorite I had them as prior to last week but I do think they are a team that destroys bad teams. Giants are bad, on a short week, and will be melting away in the 90 degree Miami heat. Miami Dolphins also have the greatest home field advantage in the NFL by shading the home team but leaving the visiting team to roast in direct sun with an average feels like temperature of 160 degrees (estimated)…. Fahrenheit. Fins win big 45-24.
Week 5 Leans (0.5 units each):
Saints ML: Patriots are bad, saints bounce back.
Texans ML: CJ Stroud seems to be good?
Lions -10: Panthers really really bad.
Vikings +4: Extremely important number. Make sure you get it at 4. Going to be a sweat but Kirk is addicted to close games.
Cowboys +4: Falling for the Cowboys trap again here. 4 is a lot of points for the proclaimed best team in the NFL to be getting.
I think that covers the slate. Taking a big hack at a 4 seamer here. Either striking out or taking this one 450 dead center.
Sincerely,
Will Tickets
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