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NFL Week 1


WE. ARE. BACK. I will save the theatrics here and get down to brass tax. When the week 1 NFL lines dropped back in July, I felt I had my finger to the pulse. As money rolled in and lines pinballed back and forth, I remain as confident as ever headed into what will surely be a profitable football season. I started off on the right foot Thursday night cashing the first prime time teaser (6.5 points) of the season with Lions +10.5 and the under 59. Vegas oddsmaker may get fired over the line they put out for my second win of the night, with Pat Mahomes over 20.5 rush yards (S/O Tommy Smokes for calling attention). Lastly, it wouldn’t be a prime time game without a ‘1H Tie – Full Time ML’ bet. This time I lost .25 units on 1H Tie – Lions ML at +2000 which was cucked by an unfortunate series of events in the waning moments of the first half. 2-1 opening night gaining a honest singular unit.


Without further ado:


Bills -2 (2 units): I have had this game circled since they announced the schedule. Big, bright, flashing neon light. I think the public opinion of the Bills and the offseason hype of the Jets is going to give us a chance to catch Vegas with their pants around their ankles. I am taking the Buffalo Bills ML, -2, and -2.5. Yes, the game is at Metlife. Yes, the stadium will be rocking. Yes, the Jets have a stout defense and offensive weapons. Having said that, I think the Jets take a couple weeks to get rolling. I will be fading them for the first 4 weeks of the season. The Bills travel across the state with a proven offense, proven defense, and the hopes this is finally the season they get over the hump. Year in and year out we see Aaron Rodgers struggle to get off the ground. Add a new system, new young star wide receiver, new running back, and a charcuterie board of psychedelics in the offseason for Aaron Rodgers and I will stick with the proven Buffalo Bills.


Bears -1 (2 units): This game comes down to one angle. Self-respect. I think the Packers probably have a more talented defense. The offense is about even, probably giving the edge to the Bears. Here is why I’m taking the Bears: If that organization has any respect for themselves, they win this game. The Bears have been tormented year in and year out by the Packers since Brett Favre was commanding the Packer offense. Rodgers galivants around the field yelling, “I OWN YOU”. The days of acceptable losses for Justin Fields and the current Bears regime is over. This is week 1 of the NFL season and the Bears are in a must win situation. You cannot lose this game to the shaky Jordan Love, who by the way, has been publicly doubted by his own front office. Bears -1.


Jags -5 (2 units): Anthony Richardson this, Anthony Richardson that, Anthony Richardson fucking sucks at throwing the ball. The guy could not throw the ball in college and he has proven through the preseason he cannot throw the football against 4th-string make-a-wish practice squad guys. Go figure. Sure, the guys a physical freak and I truly believe he will have an illustrious NFL career…. at the tight end position. To add fuel to the already raging dumpster fire residing in Indianapolis, the Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor and have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. I’m not necessarily buying the hype on Jacksonville, but I think they take care of business. Jags 31-3. Side note, just pulled up the book out of curiosity… AR15 rushing prop sitting at 45.5…. Vegas offering a life line if the aforementioned 3 plays go south. Bet the mortgage on the over 45.5 rush yards for AR15.


Rapid fire leans (0.5 units each)…


Dolphins +3: This screams tight game. Although the train might take a few stops to gain some steam, Vic Fangio is a walking top 10 defense. I think the Dolphins work around a paper thin offensive line and pull out a win outright. Surefire boat race. Whatever Vegas has the o/u at is too low. I see a 31-28 game here. Disclaimer: My actual pick is Miami Dolphins ML (5 units)


Bengals -2.5: I will not buy in to the Cleveland Browns until they prove me wrong. Yes, they have a talented roster and an offseason to iron out the kinks. However, Deshaun has done nothing to prove to anyone that he resembles anything close to Deshaun of 2019. Don’t love it, but leaning Bengals.


Steelers/Niners 1H Under 20: This number is very low but these are two top 5 defenses with unproven QB’s. Brock has some question marks coming out of the preseason. Najee will garner 20 attempts racking up 36 yards. Give me the 1H under in a 6-3 snooze fest. I like the under 41 for the game as well.


Eagles -4: Pats are bad. Eagles are good.


Giants +3.5: You will never be able to sell me on the Cowboys. Once again, the Cowboys faithful are chanting, ‘This is our year!’, from the streets of NYC to skid row in LA. I’ve heard it all before. This is a frisky Giants team with a revitalized Saquon Barkley and newly initiated Darren Waller. I think they keep it close and maybe even grab an outright.


That is the end of my week 1 NFL write up. For the sickos (my kind of people), continue reading: We are about to get greasy. I live for the obscure lottery tickets you lose 99% of the time but pay for the losses with that 1% win. Follow me…

 

*TRIGGER WARNING*


(0.25) units for each (Not included in overall record):


Titans vs Saints: I am going to be riding the Saints and Titans all year. They are the same exact team and both have a perfect balance of competitive with a guaranteed element of fuckshit. These two teams are the teams that get the heart rate hovering in the 150 BPM range for 4 quarters.

The picks: Keep in mind, most of these lines will not be available until Sunday. 1H tie – Saints Full Time (+1500 ballpark), Game to go to overtime – Yes (+800 ballpark), Winning margin 1-3 (Saints), Winning margin 1-3 (Titans)

 

Steelers vs Niners: Write-up above.

The picks: 1H Tie – Steelers FT +1500

 

Dolphins vs Chargers: Write-up above.

The picks: Game to go to overtime – Yes. Keep it simple. I was perusing the odds on my book and they have 1H Tie – Tie FT at +500……… +500. The result of the first half is a tie score parlayed with the result of the regulation time is a tied score. +500. Vegas bending over a barrel for us here. Begging us to take some sort of ‘tie’ bet.

 

Raiders vs. Broncos: Refer to Titans vs Saints write up for my analysis of this game.

The pick: Broncos winning margin 1-6. Should be in the +300 ball park


Respectfully,



Will Tickets

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