College Football Week 9

College Football – Week 9

Week 8 Premium Play Record: 1-5 (-6 units)

Week 8 Leans Record: 3-1 (+1 unit)

2025 Premium Plays Record: 18-22 (-3 units)

2025 Leans Record: 15-17 (-1 unit)

2025 Overall Combined Record: 33-39 (+1 unit)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Absolutely pencil whipped by Vegas last week. That’s on me. Tickets usually finds himself in a hole once a year but not like that. Might have had one too many beers at lunch. Good news, clear headed today and ready to get back on track. Christmas is around the quickly approaching and the kids need presents. No choice but to get in the green. Never back a wild animal into a corner

Week 9 Preview: I feel like the historians will look back and pinpoint this week as the turning point of the season. October 24, 2025 – Billy Tickets put pen to paper on what would turn out to be an indispensable moment en route to a record breaking year. Buy the dip.

Week 9 Premium Plays:

Virginia -10 at UNC (2 units): We ran through the numbers in depth on these two team not only last week but in weeks prior. I’ll keep it simple, UNC offense bad, UNC defense bad, Virginia defense bad, but Virginia offense good. Very good. Throw the numbers out, going off feel here. Should have known fading Bill off a bye was a bad idea and it ultimately bit us in the ass. Well, no bye week to rely on here for Bill and a high flying Cavaliers offense coming to town. I think Chandler Morris does enough on the ground and through the air that the Tarheel defense is going to have to sell out to stop one or the other. Short trip across state lines for the Cavs who now find themselves ranked #16 in the country. Belichek is not throwing me off his scent either with one win over a Cal team that is sputtering. That team is bad from top to bottom. You may think UNC seems to have a pulse with Max Johnson under center… wrong. Cavs keep it rolling, 34-10

Illinois at Washington over 54.4 (2 units): Two words. Track. Meet. These are identical teams by the way. Frisky. They can both expose bad teams offensively but get exposed offensively against good teams. Both Illinois and Washington have two such instances of the latter under their belt and we know the narrative surrounding Altmyer against competent defenses. HOWEVER…. Both of these teams struggle defensively in their own right and both teams can move the ball – when not facing a top 15 defense. Illinois has the 77^th ranked defense while Washington has the 40^th ranked defense. Caveat involving the Washington defense is their weakness is through the air allowing over 250 pass yards per game which puts them in the bottom 30% nationally. Both teams rank inside the top 40 offensively. Although Illinois does most of their damage passing the ball, Washington has a well balanced attacked producing 270 pass yards per game and 170 rush yards per game. The huskies and Illini combined average 68 PPG despite both laying eggs against top tier B10 defensive teams. Huskies QB Demond Williams Jr is accurate with the ball but can also hurt you with his legs rushing for over 50 yards in every game this year except for the aforementioned two games against Ohio State and Michigan. Washington’s balanced attack also includes RB Jonah Coleman who has 800 all purpose yards and 13 touchdowns as well as a trio of WR’s with 20+ catches in Denzel Boston, Dezmen Roebuck, and Jonah Coleman out of the backfield. Altmyer will open this one up through the air and I don’t see Washington’s offense having any trouble keeping pace. Illini inch out the Huskies at the finish line, 38-34.

Miami -28 vs Stanford (1 unit): Miami off a loss at home and Stanford off a win vs FSU. Occam’s Razor…. ‘The obvious outcome is the most likely’. When you look at college football over the last 5 years, the constant theme is, ‘how much pain can we inflict on the Florida State Seminoles’. The Noles have turned into the laughing stock of college football time and time again. When you look at this 28 point spread signifying an ass kicking, just ask yourself, what would inflict the most pain on Florida State. Well… Florida State just lost to Stanford… the obvious answer here is Miami set the record for largest winning margin in the history of college football by winning the football game 215-3. Occam’s Razor says that R rated ass kicking is the most likely outcome. The most painful situation here is the Noles in-state rival rewrites the history books with unthinkable of offensive milestones achieved against a Stanford Cardinals team who has a propensity for getting throttled and who happens to be traveling across the country. Canes roll 63-10.

Temple -4 vs Tulsa (2 units): I swore this Temple team off earlier in the season after getting absolutely embarrassed by Oklahoma. Maybe I put a little too much stock in them then. Somehow, they have found themselves with Tickets back in their corner. Here’s the deal. Tulsa is one of the worst teams in the country. They have been throttled by all conference opponents and their defense just gets shredded ranking 113^th in the country. Temple has a well balanced offense but leans on QB Evan Simon to take care of the ball. Simon only has 1300 yards on the year but has tallied up 16 TD’s and no interceptions through six games. The Temple Owls have a turnover margin of +9 which is good for the 4^th ranked margin in the country while Tulsa come in at 101^st with a -3 margin. Just an added bonus and certainly won’t hurt us with the number being less than a touchdown. The Temple Owl offense starts in the backfield with Jevyon Ducker getting the bulk of the work (5.7 yards a clip), chance of pace back Hunter Smith (6.4 yards per clip), and finally with the QB getting in the mix racking up 134 rush yards on the year. Tulsa’s rush defense allows almost 200 yards per game on the ground which lands them at 123/136 FBS teams in total run defense. The run game is where this one starts and ends. Number is way to low in my opinion with a Temple Owls offense capable of hanging a big number. Temple is going to open this one up. Owls get back in my good graces, 34-17.

Iowa State -2.5 vs BYU (1 unit): The stats aren’t going to back this one up but this is where you gotta follow a guy who just has a feel for the game. Gotta get your head out of the stat sheet and read the room every once in a while. In this room particularly, we have 7-0 BYU heading to Ames, Iowa to face off against an Iowa State team that had the media behind them in the pre-season to ultimately come away with the B12 title. The preseason hype for the Cyclones was generated from the veteran defense and QB Rocco Becht. Cyclones have dropped two in a row which derailed the season and largely vindicated my opinion that the Cyclones were fraudulent. I’m back, hat in hand. Vegas is teeing this one up and the public will undoubtedly be backing true frosh QB Bear Bachmeier on the road this Saturday. Bachmeier has been on a roll this year but I think he hits speed bump in Ames where Matt Campbell has had two weeks to prep for the Cougars offense. BYU has been addicted to close games and I think the ball bounces the opposite way this time. Cyclones bounce back off a bye week, 24-17.

Week 9 Leans:

Illinois +3.5 at Washington: Outright spot for Bielema and co.

Auburn vs Arkansas under 56.5: Auburn defense going to take the reigns on this one.

North Texas vs Charlotte over 60.5: Drew Mestemaker.

Mississippi State +7.5 vs Texas: Texas offense should is liable to not score 7 points, let alone cover 7 points.

Ole Miss +5.5 vs Oklahoma: Mateer hasn’t looked his best. Betting the number.

Vandy -2.5 vs Mizzou: Diego Pavia.. you so diffy.

Sincerely,

William Tickets