College Football Week 8

College Football – Week 7

Week 7 Premium Play Record: 2-3 (+1 unit)

Week 7 Leans Record: 2-3 (-0.5 units)

2025 Premium Plays Record: 17-17 (+3 units)

2025 Leans Record: 12-16 (-2 units)

2025 Overall Combined Record: 29-33 (+1 unit)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Story of the year here for Tickets… right on the edge of a breakthrough. Nailed a couple predictions again with Ohio State and USC. Let’s see if we can put together a full slate. Like a woodpecker in a petrified forest – Gotta keep your head up and look for opportunity.  

Week 7 Preview: Still out here banging the drum for Spo's Sports. Not going to quit on the team when the going gets tough like some former colleagues (Doc). Smaller slate this weekend. Get in, get out. Get through this week in the green and move on to next week where I have some games CIRCLED.

Week 7 Premium Plays:

Cal -9 vs UNC (1 unit): Friday night lights for this west coast ACC matchup. Bill Bellichek was fired and rehired mid week? A rumor came out he was looking for a replacement on Monday and by Tuesday the administration came out saying they supported him fully. That’s exactly what a spiraling Tarheels team needs before heading across the country to face off against a solid Cal team. We have highlighted this Cal team before but have yet to profit off them (0-2; faded once and tailed once). True freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele seems to have a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde problem. He looks great… and then he turns around and throws three INTs. Good news for us is UNC’s pass defense does not fall within the top 100 in the FBS. Additionally, they have the 133^rd ranked offense out of 136. Tough week internally for the Tarheels. Now they have to fly 6 hours to play a solid Cal team. Both teams off a bye week but I’ll still take any opportunity to fade a team as bad as UNC. Cal sends Jordon packing back to hillbilly country, 31-14.

Ohio State -25 at Wisconsin (2 units): Buckeyes going for the rare back to back winning plays for Tickets backers. The only other team to achieve this feat is the 2023 Florida State Seminoles. Loving the Buckeyes this year. Any given week, they could only need to score a point more than the spread to cover. The defense is putting belt to ass against any offense they face and the Wisconsin Badgers are certainly not in a position to change that. Man oh man are the Badgers in trouble. One of Wisconsin’s multitude of issues is at QB. Fickell has handed three different QBs the reigns with similar results. Most recently, Hunter Simmons logged a 0.8 QBR against the Iowa Hawkeyes a week ago. We may see Danny O’Neil but his interception problem landed him in the dog house in the first place. Whoever is under center for the Badgers is going to have a tough time against the top ranked defense in the country in Ohio State allowing less than a touchdown per game against some grad A offenses in college football. Badgers are going to need to score 21 to play spoiler here. Tall task for the 128^th ranked offensive unit in the country. Fickell is in hot water having lost nine in a row vs P4 opponents. Most recently, a 37-0 blanking by Iowa, 24-10 loss to Michigan, 27-10 loss to Maryland, and a 38-14 ass kicking by Bama which was out of hand early. We know who the Buckeyes are… more than capable of handling Wisconsin. I expect an ass blasting in all phases of the game. Complete domination. Buckeyes keep it rolling, 42-3

Texas Tech -7.5 vs Arizona State (2 units): For record keeping purposes, I’ll put 7.5 on paper which is going to run you -110. I’m a believer in buying the hook so I am going to lay the -130 and get this one at 7 flat. I can’t, in good conscience, give anything out over -125. Won’t do it. Anyway, Texas Tech is torching the Big 12 like LSU did to the SEC in 2019. Blowout after blowout. Clear the tracks, train filled with mercenaries coming through. Tech as assembled quite the crew in the offseason racking up one of the stiffest NIL tabs in the country – and its paying dividends. 7^th ranked defense and the 2^nd ranked offense nationally for the Red Raiders. They have achieved these ranks against some of the frontrunners in the B12 in Utah and Kansas. Have to acknowledge the injuries to QBs on both sides of the ball. Both Behren Morton for Tech and Sam Leavitt for ASU are banged up. Leavitt missed the game last week against Utah with a foot injury. Morton left the game against Kansas early after reaggravating a leg injury sustained in the opener. Both or going to lack mobility which is going to play right into our hands. Tech can lean on RB Cam Dickey who ranks 14^th nationally in yards with 593 and 6.4 yards a clip. The issue for the Sun Devils… they don’t have Cam Skattebo to save them. Leavitt has had to use his legs to extend plays moreso this year than he did a year ago. His mobility has taken a big hit following injury which is going to be a problem when trying to evade all B12 LB, David Bailey. Bailey has 8.5 sacks through six games and will have Leavitt looking over his shoulder all game. Sundevils have given up 3x more sacks than the Red Raiders through six games and they are going to have to keep Leavitt clean if they want any chance here. Even with Leavitt healthy, the Sun Devils are a shell of who they were a year ago. Tech out matches them across the board. Tech puts the B12 in a sleeper hold, 31 - 14

Memphis vs UAB over 62.5 (2 units): Running short on time so going to get to the point here. Trent Dilfer out at UAB. Their offense has been pretty good but their defense has been abysmal. The ‘coux de gras’ for Dilfer was giving up 53 to FAU. Can’t be doing that, boss. They previously have also given up tallys of 31, 56, 28, and 38. Memphis on the other hand can move through the air and on the ground. The ground attack from Memphis is going to open things up through the air. UAB holds the 132^nd ranked rush defense allowing 214 yards per game while Memphis hold the 13^th ranked rushing attack eclipsing 230 yards per game. Memphis is going to go get us 45 and I think former UF QB Jalen Kitna can get us 20. Nothing to lose for UAB, I think they try and take the top off. Common opponent in the last three weeks – FAU. Memphis beat them 55-26; UAB lost to them 53-33. I’ll take either of those outcomes tomorrow. Memphis starts slow but pulls away late, 51-21.

Clemson -5.5 vs SMU (1 unit): Rapid fire here. Klubnik left last weeks game with a leg injury but said in a press conference earlier this week he could have gone back in – game was out of hand. He was limited in practice, listed as questionable on the injury report. I think he goes because ultimately if he doesn’t he may get Wally Pip’ed. Sophomore QB Christian Vizzina is waiting in the wings to take the field. The former five star QB hasn’t started a game yet but has looked good in his limited action. SMU is who you want to face if you’re starting a new QB, or veteran QB, boasting the 119^th overall defense and the 135^th ranked pass defense. 136 teams ranked in the FBS. Vizzina or Klubnik, doesn’t matter. Clemson has turned the page from the beginning of the season and looks like a completely different team from September. Defense will keep the lid on Kevin Jennings and the Clemson offense will get the points they need to cover the number. Tigers get a nice win at home, 27-17.

Virginia -17 vs Wazzou (2 units): Late add to the card here. Not sure how I missed it originally. Wazzou left everything they had on the field a week ago as 33 point dogs to Ole Miss. They fly back to Pulman, WA and then turn around and catch a 5 hour flight to Charlotesville, VA to face off against the high flying Cavaliers offense led by Chandler Morris? Add Virginia to the card. Hoos will score 40+, don’t see Wazzou getting anywhere close. Cavs keep it rolling off a bye week, 51 – 17.

Week 7 Leans:

TCU -2.5 vs Baylor: Better team wins.

Georgia Tech ML vs Duke: Taking the cheese. Public going to be laying it on GT. Haynes King and Brent Key are winners. Manny Diaz is a loser.

Bama -8.5 vs Tennessee: Bama coming on strong. Tennessee looking shaky. Spread may be large for a reason.  

Utah -2.5 vs BYU: Holy war goes to the Utes this year. BYU is a young team and hasn’t really been tested.

Sincerely,

William Tickets