College Football Week 7

College Football – Week 7

Week 6 Premium Play Record: 3-3 (+2 units)

Week 6 Leans Record: 2-3 (-0.5 units)

2025 Premium Plays Record: 15-14 (+2 units)

2025 Leans Record: 10-13 (-1.5 units)

2025 Overall Combined Record: 25-27 (+0.5 units)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Just can’t seem to breakthrough… The winners we did hit, write ups were all spot on. Couldn’t put a bow on week 6 and ended up .500.

Week 7 Preview: I regret to inform the haters and losers, of which, there are many, that I am seeing this slate. They said I was afraid of big game hunting. Feast your eyes on Week 7.

Week 7 Premium Plays:

Ohio State -14 at Illinois (3 units): Line opened at 16.5, down to 14.5 as I write this Thursday 10/9 at 1PM. Buying the hook going to cost you -125. I don’t expect it to matter either way. We have worked through this experiment time and time again and 99% of the time, the outcome is the same. Top dog with superior talent taking on frisky team with a good story line. No one has been more prone to following their heart in this situation than Tickets. Gotta use our heads here. Illinois was just ran out of the stadium by Indiana. Yes, they rebounded but USC had to travel across the country to play them at 10AM Pacific Time. Not necessarily a great representation of USC from what we know about the struggles college teams have traveling. In the same stretch of games, Ohio State travelled to Washington to take on a dangerous Huskies team, in a spot many were calling for an upset, and took care of business. People are going to point towards Ohio State’s construed lack of offense as a reason to back Illinois, but when you have only allowed more than 21 points once in 18 months, I don’t think there is reason to be concerned. The story here is Luke Altmyer vs the Ohio State defense. As my colleague, The Sporacle, mentioned – Altmyer struggles against good defenses. Altmyer threw 4 of his 6 picks last year against top 15 teams while his completion percentage took a dip to just a hair over 60% against top 25 teams. In 2025, his completion percentage on the season sits at 74%. However, when he faced off against 19^th ranked Indiana, he dropped to a 63% completion percentage on 22 attempts for 146 yards. Total offense stats aside, Altymer is a glaring ‘black eye’ if you are looking for the Illini to stay in this one. Keep in mind, Ohio State has the #3 overall defense allowing an average of 5 points and less than 200 total yards per game… Last selling point for those doubting Ohio State’s offense, Illinois has given up 63, 34, and 27 in three B10 games so far this season. Shit pumping in Champaign, Ohio State 34-10.

Alabama at Mizzou over 51.5 (2 units): Two top 30 offenses square off in Columbia, MO this weekend as Bama travels to take on the 14^th ranked Missouri Tigers. The Bama offense has been widely broadcasted with the resurgence of QB Ty Simpson. Add RB Jam Miller to the mix after he made his return to the field from injury a week ago against Vanderbilt totaling 136 yards on 22 carriers and you can see why the Bama offense has performed the way they have. Good offense gets better. For the Tigers, Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy are the names to know. Penn State transfer QB Pribula has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers this year leading Missouri to the #7 offense in the nation averaging 45 points a game. ULM transfer Ahmad Hardy has done a great job alleviating some of the pressure off the signal caller by running the ball at 7.1 yards a clip – 103 carries, 730 yards…. Not bad. Counterpoint to the star studded offenses taking the field Saturday – neither team has eclipsed the number in the last two matchups. Counterpoint to the counterpoint – they are due. We know Deboer has struggled with mobile QBs and struggled on the road in his tenure at Alabama. Both will be something they have to overcome this weekend. I mention Bama’s shortcomings against teams with characteristics because I think Missouri takes control of this game which should instill an element of chaos that favors the over. Pribula will extend drives with his legs and the Bama WR core should have an opportunity to get free for some big plays. 34-31 Bama.

Penn State -20.5 vs Northwestern (1 unit): See week 2 Bama vs ULM pick. James Franklin has one option this week and it is to win by 100. Offense has to show you something. Defense can’t let up a point. Drew Allar has a lot of money on the table here in future earnings based off his draft stock and James Franklin is honestly coaching for his job. Popular pre-season national champion pick Penn State has an opportunity to exorcise the demons against a turnover prone Northwestern team. I expect them to take full advantage.

USC -2 vs Michigan (2 units): Southern Cal and Michigan face off in the Colosseum in an interesting one.  The Trojans, coming off a bye, had an additional week to prep for the 15^th ranked Michigan Wolverines coming to town. We last saw the Trojans following, to a T, the script that Billy Tickets laid out and allowed us to profit off Illinois two weeks ago. Michigan, on the other hand, slugged their way to a victory against Wisconsin this past week. I think the contrast in offenses lands the Wolverines in some trouble here. USC averages 565 yards and 48 points per game while Michigan barely squeaks into the top fifty statistically. Bryce Underwood and the Michigan offense may even be overhyped as they really have struggled to find footing against P4 teams. The strength of the Michigan’s lackluster offense is the running game, lead by Bama transfer Justice Haynes. Good news for us, the strength of USC’s average defense is their defensive front, ranking inside the top 30 in rush yards allowed at just a hair over 100 yards per game. In reality, whatever deficiency the Trojans have on defense, I trust the second ranked offense in the country to make up for it. Big Uce, Jayden Maiava, transferred to USC from UNLV in 2024 where he sat for a year before earning the starting gig for the Trojans this year. He came out of the gates firing and in doing so has thrust himself into the Heisman watch list. The way the schedule is lining up for the Wolverines… I think some seats may be heating up in Ann Arbor over the course of October. Two separate trips out west… Trojans topple the Wolverines, 31-21.

Oklahoma ML vs Texas (1 unit): Red River Rivalry has lost a little bit of its luster after a Texas was taken down by UF a week ago. This was trending to be a top 15 matchup if the Longhorns could figure out their offense. They couldn’t. I am and have been bullish on this Sooners defense. The opposite is true for this Texas offense. Story of the week, aside from Arch Manning tarnishing the family name, has been John Mateer. After thumb surgery a few weeks ago, he is battling to see the field in Dallas on Saturday. The word on the street is Mateer is trending to play. If that is the case, no sweat bet on the Sooners here. I am writing this and placing this bet assuming Mateer will not play. Brent Venerables has the team practicing inside only with no media availability this week – love it Brent. Keep it under lock and key. On the other sideline, rumors are leaking out about the Texas staff looking down the depth chart at QB to find a possible replacement for Arch. Oklahoma’s defense is arguably the best unit in the country and faces a Texas offense that is truly struggling. 63^rd ranked Texas offense vs the #2 ranked Sooners defense. This is a defensive battle that the Sooners have a definitive upper hand in. Gotta ask the question – who would be taking snaps under center for the Sooners in Mateer’s offense? Enter Michael Hawkins Jr. The name may ring a bell. He took the field for the Sooners in his first start a year ago in the Red River Rivalry and got pencil whipped. Surely he isn’t seeing red with a potential opportunity to seek revenge…Sooners offense is in a much better position this year to pivot to Hawkins as both Mateer and Hawkins are similar with their ability to extend and create plays with their legs. If all else fails, Oklahoma has a stable of running backs to fall back on in Tory Blaylock and Jayden Ott (ran for about 1500 yards last year at Cal). Bottom line, much more talented team surrounding Hawkins Saturday than a year ago and Texas is in free fall. Sooners force Sark back to the bottle, 17-13.

Week 7 Leans:

South Florida vs North Texas over 67.5: Not a number high enough that would deter me from taking this over.

NC State/Notre Dame over 59.5: Good offenses, bad defenses. ND sets the pace and NC State is going to try and keep up.

TCU ML vs Kansas State: Sonny Dykes has this Horned Frogs team humming. Kansas State had their soul ripped out in the dying seconds a week ago. Lifeless Wildcats team vs a good TCU team.

Iowa -3 vs Wisconsin: Going to be a rock fight but Iowa is better than their record indicates and Wisco is much worse

Oregon -7.5 vs Indiana: See Ohio State vs Illinois write up.

Let’s have a weekend.

Sincerely,

William Tickets