College Football Week 6

College Football – Week 6

Week 5 Premium Play Record: 2-3 (-3 units)

Week 5 Leans Record: 2-3 (-0.5 units)

2025 Premium Plays Record: 12-11 (even)

2025 Leans Record: 8-10 (-1 unit)

2025 Overall Combined Record: 20-21 (-1 unit)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: One of the low points over the last 3 years for the Tickets crew. Have to take a victory lap on the Sam Pittman firing. Don’t forget, William Tickets told you first. Gotta #RESPOND here or risk losing the followers.

Week 6 Preview:  One time.

Week 6 Premium Plays:

Clemson -13.5 at UNC (2 units): Clemson crosses the Carolina state line here to take on an abysmal UNC team who has somehow been overshadowed by the off the field antics by Belichick’s skank girlfriend. Pro move by Belichick. That broad just has to be absolutely rocking his world. Things aren’t much better in Tiger land but this feels like a spot for the Tigers to let out some steam. Clemson is coming off a bye week here which should have given the Tigers a chance to hit the reset button on a season to forget, despite Dabo doing everything he can to turn the fanbase against him. Clemson’s one dimensional offense can lean on the talent gap here and should be able to run the ball at will which will be all they need to do to cover this spread. The Tarheel offense (134/136 in yards per game) has looked abysmal against any team with a pulse with Geo Lopez under center opening the door for Max Johnson to get back on the field. Johnson was the starting signal caller for the Tarheels a year ago before suffering a season-ending leg injury in the opener. Regardless of who is under center for the Tarheels, the offensive line is a serious issue and the Clemson defense may finally be able to back up a small piece of the pre-season hype they had entering the season. Although Clemson is 1-3, you can somewhat justify how they got here. Opening loss to LSU in a closeish game, buy game, walk off field goal loss on the road at now #16 ranked Georgia Tech, and finally a demoralized Clemson team heads home to face a frisky Cuse team… College Football is a slippery slope… Give me the Clemson Tigers off a bye week to right the ship against a historically bad UNC team. 31-10.

Navy vs Air Force over 51.5 (3 units):  Air Force can’t help but get 40-pieced week in and week out allowing 44, 49, and 49 three weeks in a row. The defensive unit for the Air Force Academy is ranked 127^th in yards allowed and 131^st in points allowed out of 136 FBS teams. To make matters go from bad to worse for the Falcons, they rank 134^th in third down defense allowing opponents to convert 57% of the time while Navy ranks 1^st nationally in the same state converting on 62% of third downs. Little bit of added juice to this one given it’s a service academy game but I remain undeterred here. Navy QB Blake Horvath has shown he can take the top off defenses with the occasional pass and I expect a couple deep shots here against the 133^rd ranked pass defense in Air Force. Naturally, given the defensive woes for the Falcons, they have had to score some points to prevent running clock situations – and they have delivered so far holding a top 20 offense in the country totaling over 470 yards per game. This game is going to look like one of my high school track meets, lot of undersized white boys running up an down the field. One last stat for the boys, both Navy and Air Force have top 25 redzone offenses scoring on 95% and 94% of their trips. Touchdowns not field goals in Annapolis here this weekend. Not to mention, long trip for Air Force kicking off at noon…. Could be a little sleepy… Love the troops to keep us entertained and don’t hate the Navy spread and team total while you’re at it. Navy establishes air superiority, 45-28.

Kansas -4 at UCF (1 unit): This Kansas Jayhawks team is something else. They go from looking like world-beaters to the worst team in college football several times a game. All part of the experience. The Jayhawks are led by 6^th year senior QB Jalon Daniels who is absolutely lighting it up this year with 1300 yards through the air, 16TDs to only 2 INTs, while adding in another 200 yards on the ground. He’s a true dual threat QB that should give the UCF defense some issues. If Kansas can hit the gas on offense early, I think UCF is going to struggle to keep up. The Golden Knights, led by Scott Frost, are off to a decent start in Frost’s second stint in Orlando going 3-1 heading into this matchup. Despite the 3-1 record, I think we may be looking at fools gold here. UCF handled two FCS teams and UNC before meeting their match in Manhattan, Kansas a week ago. Kansas State got up early and exploited the inexperience of the Golden Knights offense in the second half. That’s the script to profit this week for the Jayhawks and I’m betting they have the offense to set the pace. Jayhawks keep the roller coaster going, 38 – 28.

Cal +3 vs Duke (2 units): Learned our lesson with this Cal team last week. They’ve got these guys jack-assing across the country every week and they just keep winning. True freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is one of the best young signal callers in the country and is only getting better. Have to acknowledge the egg Cal laid against SDSU two weeks ago but I think that one is behind these guys after they beat Boston College handedly despite the four point margin. The story of this matchup is going to be Cal’s defense (34^th overall) vs the Duke offense (19^th overall). Duke has struggled against teams with formidable defenses. In two matchups against top 50 units, they have lost both scoring 27 and 19 points. If the Golden Bears can keep Duke dual-threat QB Darian Mensah under control, I trust Cal’s offense to get it done against Duke’s 119^th ranked defensive unit. On top of the defensive struggles for Duke, they average 75 penalty yards a game which is good for 122^nd in the country. Two solid ACC teams here. Only one of them has to travel across three time zones and kick off at the equivalent of 12:30AM EST.

UAB +6.5 vs Army (1 unit): We faded UAB last time they played the troops and it bit us in the ass. Backing Trent Dilfer and the UAB Dragons here when they host Army. The circus is coming to Birmingham. Sexual predator child pornographist Jalen Kitna (former Florida Gator) can absolutely sling the ball and has this offense putting up serious number. They have to if they want to stay in games as the defensive unit for Trent Dilfer’s squad is ranked 133/136 in the FBS. Good news for UAB, Army’s defense is equally as dogshit ranking 116the in the country. If UAB can just sell out and stop the run on two drives, I think we have the window we need to cover the touchdown here. In all seriousness, this is an outright spot for UAB against an up and down Army squad. UAB pulls out the… upset? 41-35.

Florida State Team Total over 23.5 vs Miami (1 unit): Shameless. The homer sneaking in a Florida State bet following a loss to UVA. Bottom line is the Florida State defense seems to be swiss cheese and Gus Malzahn has this offense humming. They are going to have to score 24+ to win the game and realistically keep it competitive. I’ve seen enough from the Noles this year to know the defensive front and LBs are a serious liability. I expect the elite OL of Miami to absolutely manhandle the Noles en route to about 7 yards a clip on the ground. Veteran QB Carson Beck certainly can pick apart the Noles secondary as well if you give him a chance. Regardless of what the Canes do or don’t do on offense, Malzahn is going to be in his bag and he showed us last week that bag is DEEP. Unless you had a crystal ball, there was not one single person in the stadium or watching from home who knew where the ball was going when Florida State had the ball in the redzone a week ago. I expect more of the same this week. Going to be a love/hate relationship with Gus bus this year but I am currently on that bus with no destination in sight. Heard it when the season started and it couldn’t be more true here, “There is not an amusement park in the country that could put you on a ride like the Mike Norvell led Florida State Seminoles can”. I expect a bounce back game here for Noles and a win outright. Regardless of what happens, Gus Bus is putting up 24 points.  You can book that.

Week 6 Leans:

BYU -19 vs WVU: WVU starting QB Nicco Marchiol out for the season. Marchiol was terrible so I can only imagine who the Moutaineers trot out there to take on the Mormons on Friday night.

App State ML vs Oregon State: You know App State is licking their chops at any opportunity to beat a P5 (former) team. Perfect opportunity to beat their chest about even if it is fraudulent. Oregon State traveling across the country after burning their one trap game on a loss last week.

SMU -17 vs Cuse: Rhett Lashlee needs a blowout to get this team believing again. Perfect opportunity against QBless Cuse, who lost starting QB Steve Angeli to an achilles injury two weeks ago.

Texas -5 vs Florida: Death by a million cuts for the Gators here. Miami vs Florida 2.0.

Illinois vs Purdue over 55: Illini handle 80% of this themselves against a bad Purdue defense. Help us out a little Purdue.

Bounce back week here. Right when people start to turn their back on the kid.

Sincerely,

William Tickets