College Football - Week 4

College Football – Week 4

Week 3 Premium Play Record: 4-2 (+6 units)

Week 3 Leans Record: 1-2 (-0.5 units)

2025 Premium Plays Record: 7-5 (+3 units)

2025 Leans Record: 4-4 (even)

2025 Overall Combined Record: 11-9 (+3 units)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: Hit on the big bets – that’s how you stay in the green. Textbook unit management to net a big week. Swing and a miss on the 1H bets. Temple, thanks for nothing. First and last time we ever see them on a Billy Tickets report. Cucked again by a weather delay in the Tech/State over. Back in the positive where we plan to stay. The boys over at Spo’s Sports are absolutely humming to start the year.

Week 4 Preview: Loving what Vegas has given us here. Big dogs are resting for the most part but we’ve got some interesting matchups that should allow us to really dial in moving forward.

Week 4 Premium Plays:

Utah -3 vs Texas Tech (2 units): Identified Utah as a potential play earlier in the week but officially added them to the slip when I saw my colleague, the Sporacle, was high on the Utes. Going to co-sign this one Spo. Bad news for the bookie when the brain trust is backing the same team. Quarterback Behren Morton feels like the only player on Tech’s roster that isn’t a transfer which is going to be a problem when facing a galvanized squad like Utah. Rice Eccles Stadium is a tough place to play and Kyle Whittingham has proven time and time again why teams don’t like visiting. To win on the road in Utah against the #16 team in the country would be a tall ask for any team in the country, let alone for a team full of rentals. Neither team has really played anyone but it looks like the Utes have an offense more than capable of scoring points partnered with the trademarked Whittingham defense. I like a cohesive Utes team to get it done here, led by the defense. John Henry Daley has racked up 5 sacks off the edge through three games and leads the top 10 defensive unit in the country. JHD looks like he belongs on Wisconsin – corn fed and skin that looks like it hasn’t seen the sun in months. On the other side of the ball, dual threat QB Devon Dampier takes care of the ball and can extend plays with his legs. Utes earn one at home, 34-24.

North Texas -2.5 at Army (2 units): I take no pride in fading any branch of the military but when Vegas tosses us a bone, you don’t ask questions. Jekyll and Hyde Army enters the contest 1-1 with a loss to Tarleton State in their opener while the Mean Green are high-stepping into West Point at 3-0. UNT is led by redshirt freshman QB Drew Mestemaker out of Austin, Texas. Mestemaker takes care of the ball with a 9-0 TD-INT ratio and looks to add to that total against the 91^st ranked scoring defense in the country with Army. Here’s another stat for you, North Texas leads the country in turnover margin at +7 while Army ranks 97^th at -2. UNT attacks the ball and Army is clearly liable to put a couple on the ground. UNT should set the pace and I don’t see Army keeping up. If the Mean Green can get out to an early lead, I love our chances at holding it. North Texas rolls 38-17.

Oregon -34.5 vs Oregon State (1 unit): Oregon took our money a week ago but we back them here. Memory of goldfish in this world. Still think the Northwestern play was the right call. Anyways, quasi-rivalry game on hand here in Eugene and I expect Oregon to dismantle the in-state foe. Main concern here is Oregon gets caught looking ahead to a date with Penn State next week but I don’t think you get caught flat footed in back to back weeks. Despite a slow start a week ago, they managed to win by 20. Oregon State is fresh off a 30 point loss to Texas Tech although I don’t need to remind you. Bottom line, Texas Tech would have covered 34.5 if it weren’t for a weather delay and they can’t hold a match to Oregon. This Oregon team knows how to put up points with a top 15 ranked offense led by star receiver Malik Benson. You may remember Malik Benson from his time at Florida State. Benson struggled to find the field in Tallahassee buried behind better talent but its always nice to see when guys transfer to less talented schools and find the field. Oregon State couldn’t stop a nose bleed and the coach is already being questioned three games into his tenure on why he feels he is the right guy for the job. This is the last iteration of this rivalry as the game is not scheduled to be played again in 2026 and I expect Oregon to end it on a high note. Big bro puts belt to ass, 59-14.

Illinois +6.5 at Indiana (2 units): Marquee matchup including Illinois and Indiana feels like something that only happens in a video game, but here we are. Both of these teams are my boys and I really hate to bet against either one of them but I have a fiduciary duty to my clients to put money in their pocket so here we are. This one is pretty straight forward – this is going to be a highly contested back and forth game and I think a touchdown is too many points. Bret Bielema and Luke Altmyer led Illini team is liable to win this game outright and I think they might just do that. Altmyer was a fan favorite fade two years ago but has made a miraculous comeback into one of the best QB’s in the country. He has corrected a previous turnover issue from 2023 and now has a perfect 8-0 TD-INT ratio. Tough to read into the Indiana stats too much as they really haven’t played anyone signaling Cignetti’s MO. I want to make it very clear – Curt Cignetti is one of my boys. Nothing personal – strictly business. Curt brought in former Cal signal caller Fernando Mendoza to lead his team this year. Will be interesting to see how he looks against a formidable defense as he was lackluster as a passer for the Golden Bears. Illinois adds a ranked win to their resume this weekend, 27-24.

Virginia -16.5 vs Stanford (1 unit): Went back and forth here between the spread and Virgina team total over 33.5. Although I like both, I ultimately landed on the spread here as I actually think Stanford’s defense is formidable. Frank Reich flies his team clear across the country to Charlottesville, VA to open ACC play against the Cavaliers. I love fading team with extensive travel and a five hour flight and 4 hour time difference certainly qualifies. Senior QB Chad Morris leads the #8 offense in college football for the Cavaliers. They get it done through the air and on the ground averaging 250+ yards per game in each category. Although the heavies up front for Stanford has their run defense in solid shape, the secondary is an issue and they struggle to keep the ball in front of them. Stanford also struggles to score, or move the ball for that matter. Stanford QB Ben Gulbranson has 3 INTs to 1 lone TD this year – a stat which alludes to Ben’s possible age. They guy looks to be about 31. Time to hang it up Ben. Virginia walks all over the Cards, 31-10.

Western Kentucky -9.5 vs Nevada (2 units): Following the script from the UVA/Stanford matchup – Nevada has to be wondering how they found themselves flying across the country to take on Western Kentucky in Bowling Green, Kentucky. When I started digging into this one, I almost could not believe what I was seeing. Chubba Purdy is the starting QB for the Nevada Wolfpack. Chubba and I were members of the same fraternity at Florida State and I thought I had seen the last of him when he failed to find the field for the Seminoles and transferred to Nebraska. 6 years later, Chubba resurfaces in Nevada and it appears as if not much has changed for the 6^th year signal caller. 329 yards, 1 TD, and 4 INTs in three contests for Purdy… Northwestern Mutual is licking their chops. Western Kentucky can move the ball through the air and utilizes a stable of running backs to amass over 460 yards per game. Their defense is sub par but I am not too worried with Chubba Purdy running the show on the other sideline. Maverick McIvor (QB) and Moussa Barry (WR) not only are an all time name duo but have chemistry you read about and I expect the two to connect early and often in this one. McIvor starts his senior campaign off with a bang and has totaled almost a thousand yards through three games, ten touchdowns, and only one interception. The Hilltoppers send the Wolfpack running, 31 – 17.

Week 4 Leans:

Nebraska ML vs Michigan: Rhule called out Big Red nation for what has to be the biggest game in the last 15 years for Nebraska.

Oklahoma -6.5 vs Auburn: I’m buying stock in Oklahoma. Defense looks great. Mateer also one of my boys from his time at Washington State.

SMU +7 at TCU: Similar feel to Illinois/Indiana. Back and forth game, 7 too many points

NC State +3.5 at Duke: Sporacle has been beating his chest about CJ Bailey since August. Let’s see what you got, CJ.

Florida State -44.5 vs Kent State: All aboard the Gus Bus.

This is the week we need to really get our finger to the pulse of some of these teams. Lot of ‘show me’ games out there. See you on the other side.

Sincerely,

William Tickets