College Football - Week 3

College Football – Week 3

Premium Play Record: 3-3 (-3 units)

Leans Record: 3-2 (+0.5 units)

2025 Premium Plays Record: 3-3 (-3 units)

2025 Leans Record: 3-2 (+0.5 units)

2025 Overall Combined Record: 6-5 (-2.5 units)

S-T-A-T-E of the Union: We got absolutely hosed last week. Absolutely hosed. Navy does the leg work early to get put on ice in a 5 hour rain delay – it happens. Kansas leading with 8 minutes to go and not covering a tud spread – outrageous. Lane Kiffin calling a timeout with 13 seconds left in a 10 point game giving the other team time to send out the field goal unit to cover… and then acknowledging the spread in the post game interview – federal crime. Put him in cuffs – and check his Fanduel balance while you’re at it. Easily could have been a 6-0 premium play opening week nut tap to the bookie. Instead, we start in the hole. Time to respond. Last note on week 2 – Kansas State officially dead to me.

Week 3 Preview: Vegas has their fingerprints all over this one. Clemson vs GT, UGA vs Tenn, UF vs LSU, Miami vs USF… Couldn’t tell you who’s coming out on top there. Noles on a bye. First 3-unit play of the year. This one's for Charlie.

Week 3 Premium Plays:

Bama -20.5 vs Wisconsin (3 units): I know a skull-fucking when I see one… Bama has had a chance to  exorcise the demons from their week one ass-kicking at the hands of Florida State. They are back in action here in the comfort of their own home facing a Wisconsin Badgers team struggling to find their footing under Luke Fickel. Fickel desperately needs a signature win at Wisconsin to bring him back to the spotlight and quiet the faithful in Madison. This ain’t the spot and Luke Fickel is certainly not that guy. Ty Simpson was able to build some confidence last week and now faces a Badgers defense ranking in the bottom half of the B10 from a year ago. These two teams faced off a year ago on the Badgers turf where Bama tagged them up 42-10. Bama is just as good as last year and Wisconsin has gotten worse, specifically on offense. Ty Simpson even saw the field last year totaling 4 completions for 30 yards. Bama will certainly be playing with a chip on their shoulder and I expect Deboer to keep his foot on the gas. Déjà vu. Tide Rolls 42-10.

Arizona ML vs Kansas State (2 units): Tickets followers and premium subscribers are all too familiar with Avery Johnson and the Kansas State Wildcats. I have written about them time and time again over the past two years and have largely been profitable. They let me down in week 0, stubbed their toe in week 1, and absolutely stabbed me in the back in week 2. Avery Johnson, similar to Kyron Drones, has been a Heisman sleeper and on ‘breakout watch’ for the last two years. The same hype has been afforded to the Kansas State defense – fallen short of the mark as well. On the other side of the ball you have legitimate NFL QB talent Noah Fifita, an electric run game, and several wide receivers looking to fill the shoes of Tetoira McMillan (definitely butchered that spelling) – mainly Javin Whatley. Whatley has elite speed averaging 26 yards a pop over 8 receptions. I’m not necessarily ‘buying’ the Arizona defense as legit despite only allowing 9 total points this year. However, I think they can outpace the Wildcats offense and expose a Wildcats defense that doesn’t do anything particularly well. Wildcats have given up 24, 35, and 24 in their last three games this year to…. Army, North Dakota, and Iowa State. Yikes. Arizona gets it done at home against a lost Kansas State team, 31-24.

Temple +13.5 1H vs Oklahoma (1 unit): Potential hangover game here as OU heads to Philadelphia to face off against a Temple offense that can move. Bright and early noon kick at the link for this one helps the ‘hangover’ case. Oklahoma is coming off a big win against Oklahoma and appear to be legit with John Mateer at the helm. However, their offense hasn’t exactly looked like perfect. They started slow against Illinois State and Mateer tossed it to the other team in both of their first two games. What he lacks in passing, he makes up for with his legs. Good news for Temple is the first two weeks both featured QB’s that aren’t afraid to get out of the pocket in Brandon Rose of UMass and Tyriq Starks of Howard, totaling 15 rushes between the two for 30 yards. Temple has looked solid on defense against lesser opponents but their offense is wear they earn their stripes. Senior quarterback Evan Simon has finally found his footing boasting the #2 QBR in the country with over 400 pass yards and 9 TD’s leaving his first two contests early due to the score. The guy can sling it and first year Temple head coach KC Keeler is up there with Curt Cignetti delusional. New coach, new system, new QB, early kick, the Link will be quiet, OU little hangover/look ahead spot. I’m not calling for an upset but I wouldn’t be surprised if Temple paces OU in the first half. First half prediction: Temple 17 – OU 14.

Vanderbilt +3.5 At South Carolina (1 unit): This line is dropping like a rock - +4.5 yesterday, seeing +3 on some books now. I like 3.5 here if you can scoop it up. Vandy carriers over their juice from a season ago and looks to have really found their groove on offense in a second half showing against Virigina Tech that proved it. This Vandy team is liable to win this game outright. I almost prefer a high intensity spot for this Diego Pavia led Vandy team. Pavia so diffy. On the defensive side of thigs Vanderbilt has shown they can contain the run at a slightly better clip than South Carolina. The gamecocks are going to have to get stud transfer RB Rhasul Faison going, which he has not yet to date, if they are going to take control of this one. It’s going to be a tight game throughout, and I like the hook here with the potential to win outright. Cocks get clipped, 26-23. Vandy Wins.

New Mexico State +10 vs Louisiana Tech (1 unit): Staying far away from the traps Vegas through out there this weekend. Don’t bother watching this one, it is going to be ugly. Probably can’t find it on TV anyway. New Mexico State was all over the place a year ago but managed to land in the top 40 of FBS offenses. They have since upgraded at QB in Senior transfer Logan Fife who looks formidable and will only get more comfortable in this new system. PJ Johnson III is going to be the weapon to watch for the Aggies has the ‘do-it-all’ WR/RB has NFL speed. They use him all over the field and he works well with Fife’s athleticism. On the flip side, LT has struggled to score dating back to 2023 when they have ranked in the bottom half of FBS offenses for going on the 3^rd consecutive year now. They mustered up 24 against the Southeastern Louisiana Lions – 3-0 game at half, and narrowly avoided a shutout at LSU a weekend ago. This is going to be a rock fight but the bottom line is LA Tech should not be laying double digits to anyone. La Tech squeaks out a snoozer 17-14.

Clemson vs GT under 51.5 (2 units): Where do you start here? Clemson stumbles into Atlanta after a rough start to the season against LSU and Troy where the offense struggled to get going in both contests. Cade Klubnik does not look like he took that leap forward this year and the run game is nonexistent. Clemson, however, is still legit on defense. They have one of the top defensive fronts in the country that will likely get home several times against a undersized Georgia Tech front. Georgia Tech and Clemson both rank in the top 60 of Yards Per Play defense this year and like to keep everything in front of them. Brent Key is not exactly known for his defense but he has shown he can show up in big games. Tech is going to run the ball early and often. QB Haynes King is banged up with a shoulder injury but is going to start this game – I doubt he finishes it. In the lone contest he did start this year against Colorado, he ran the ball 19 times and threw 13 times. This clock is going to grow legs and I don’t see too many points coming from run heavy drives. I expect smash mouth football with Clemson defense ultimately getting the job done. Clemson wins 24 – 17.

Week 3 Leans:

Houston -4 vs Colorado (Friday Night Lights): QB controversy in Colorado. Lot of experience on the Houston sideline, led by former TAMU QB, Connor Weigman

Northwestern +15.5 1H vs Oregon: Sneaky emotional game for Oregon a week ago kicking off at Northwestern’s intramural field at 10AM Eugene time… Sleepy sleepy sleepy

Texas Tech/Oregon State over 61: I feel safe with this number at 94.

The CLIMB continues.

Sincerely,

William Tickets