College Football Week 10
Week 9 Premium Plays: 1-5 (-9 units)
Week 9 Leans: 3-2 (+0.5 units)
Overall Premium Plays: 28-30-2 (even)
Overall Leans: 20-19-1 (+0.5 units)
Overall Combined Record: 48-49-3 (+0.5 units)
Week 9 Summary: Not much to say about that one. Take it on the chin. Starting from scratch.
Week 10 Preview: This is the day that the lord has made and I will be glad and rejoice in it. Unwavering faith, ultimate belief, depending on the Lord, that’s all we got. Unwavering faith, ultimate belief. Unwavering faith. Ultimate belief.
Week 10 Premium Plays:
Ohio State -3 at Penn State (2 units): Top 5 matchup playing at noon just doesn’t feel right but fine by me backing the buckeyes here. Money pouring in on Penn State has pushed this line from 4.5 to 4 to 3.5 and now gifts us a flat 3. I do think the number gives us a little safety here but at the end of the day Ohio State is heads and tails a better offense and comparable defense to State Penn. Nod goes to Ohio State as well in regards to coaching as Ryan Day has a 5-1 record against James Franklin. Both are challenged when it comes to big games which makes this interesting but the shortcomings Penn State has on offense is going to do them in here. Penn State runs the ball effectively averaging almost 200 yards a game on the ground but the injury to Drew Allar (probable) and the Nittany Lion pass game short comings may allow a top 5 Buckeyes defense to sell out on the run. Day retains his job with a 21-13 win at State College.
Michigan Team Total under 14.5 (3 units): I honestly don’t know if Michigan is capable of scoring in this one. Oregon has allowed greater than 14 points twice all season. The two times coming against Boise State and Ohio State… decent offenses. Coming off a graphic pumping of Illinois in a 38-9 route, Oregon is in cruise control to the end here as they will not face another top 25 team until the conference championship game. Oregon gets on them and stays on them forcing Michigan to throw the ball, which we know they can’t do. Who knows who they roll out at QB… who cares. Lanning has a screw loose and I could see this one getting out of hand. Oregon’s first trip to Ann Arbor as a member of the B10, take the Michigan under and hit Ducks -14 while you’re there. Ducks 31-6
Indiana -7.5 (2 units): Rinse, repeat. Curt Cignetti and Co are a well oiled machine. With Kurtis Roarke, without Kurtis Roarke. It do not matter. Give me the Hoosiers on the road in East Lansing in another blowout. This guy Cignetti is on a warpath and loves to stay on the gas late in the game. Indiana averages a touch over 200 yards on the ground per game which plays to our advantage here as Sparty has a decent defense but struggles to contain the run allowing 130 yards per game on the ground. Rourke has his injured thumb but looks probable to play and shouldn’t need to air it out too much here. Believe it or not, Sparty has a worse offense statistically than their in state rival, Michigan. They are tasked with moving the ball against a top 10 defense in Indiana and I don’t see them getting it done. Hoosies roll 35-17.
Vandy +7.5 at Auburn (2 units): Vegas weekly cheese of the week. BYU cashed last week in a blowout. They can’t possibly get caught with their pants around their ankles two weeks in a row right? Just look at the track record for these two teams. Auburn has wins against an HBCU, New Mexico, and Kentucky (dog shit). They lost to Cal (dog shit), Arkansas (at home), and Oklahoma (hot dog shit). Vandy is not free from glaring losses either but they beat Bama, and in my opinion more importantly, they showed up the next week on the road and beat Kentucky. No hangover for the Commodores. After a close loss at the hands of Texas a week ago, the Commodores skip the hangover and get right to fucking again here. I get a trap line sprung at even, +3.5, +4.5 even. But giving the commodores a touchdown and the hook against a sub par Auburn team is too juicy to not take. Deep numbers aren’t showing any lopsided statistics and there are no notable injuries to report here. Vandy wins outright 27-20.
Navy -11 at Rice (3 units): Public and William Tickets darling, Naval Academy heads to rice to face off against Kurt Warners Temple reject son signal calling the Rice offense. This pick is as simple as Rice gives up 160 yards on the ground per game. This was the reasoning behind the Navy pick against UAB and Air Force. We ride it again here. Horvath might run for 5 TD’s and toss for a couple more here at Rice. The achilles heel of this Navy team is the defense but the turnover prone Rice offense is going to have to put the ball in the air and I don’t see its being enough. Navy rumbles to another win, 42-14. Go learn Enterprise, EJ Warner.
NC State/Stanford under 47.5 (1 unit): Stanford heads clear across the country for a noon kick at a stingy NC State defense. A dreadful Stanford offense gets worse as they sleep walk through the first half of this one. The Cardinals rank 120 out of 134 FBS teams in total offense while NC state clocks in at 86. Neither team has the capability to turn this one in to a track meet and I think we see a punt show all day. No touchdowns for you, liberals. 17-13 who cares who wins.
Week 10 Leans:
Duke +20: Miami and Duke addicted to close games. Revenge game for Manny Diaz.
Illinois +3: Luke Altmyer and Co win outright against a Minnesota team on cloud nine.
Zona/UCFR over 55: Lackluster D on both ends allows these powder keg offenses to move.
Pitt/SMU over 58.5: Eli Holstein game time decision. If he plays, the lid is coming off this one.
Bambino calling his shot. Rent due.
Cheers,
Billy
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