College Football Week 1
Week 0 Premium Plays: 1-0 (+3 units)
Week 0 Leans: 0-1 (-0.5 units)
Combined Record: 1-1 (+2.5 units)
Week 0 Summary: Georgia Tech 1H +6.5 was about as easy as it gets. On a personal level, Florida State rips my heart out once again. SMU couldn’t seem to get it going with a couple momentum killing mistakes down the stretch. Preseason is over, time for the big leagues.
Week 1 Preview: Vegas baiting the rat traps early and often here. We move like church mice – in and out – no one will even know we where there.
Week 1 Premium Plays:
Northwestern -3 (3 units): The wildcats look to pick up in 2024 where they left off in 2023 winning 5 of their last 6 games down the stretch including a bowl victory over Utah. You will recall, David Braun stepped in as interim coach and turned this team in to a cover machine single-handedly putting food on the table for loyal followers of Spo’s Sports (newly formed LLC in the great state of Florida). Not only do the wildcats return 6 offensive and 9 defensive starters from a year ago, they bring in Mississippi State transfer quarterback Mike Wright who can move. Wright and the Junior RB Cam Porter who is fresh off a 1k yard rushing season look to keep this one on the ground against a weak Miami (OH) defensive front. Where the wildcats get in to trouble here is when Mike Wright tries to throw the ball…. Miami (OH) is no slouch at the G5 level coming off a MAC championship game appearance. Brett Gabbert back again after a gruesome leg injury after week 8 last year looks to lead this team back to the MAC championship. These teams are extremely similar – run the ball and play defense. We won’t be saying this much this year but Northwestern is just a more talented team. This will be a low scoring affair but the Wildcats come through for the good guys again here. Wildcats win 24 – 14.
Boston College Team Total over 16.5 (2 units): Rat trap. The defensive line and linebackers of Florida State showed no ability to get any push or make a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage… against Georgia Tech. After taking their ass kicking and galivanting across Ireland, they return to another primetime matchup, this time against familiar foe, the Tony Castellanos (S/O BOTE) led Boston College Golden Eagles. If you will recall, Tony C in BC absolutely gashed the Florida State defense a year ago. Fast forward to Monday and we have a Noles front 7 that is a shell of itself and an offense that can’t stay on the field. Florida State made TAMu reject, Haynes King, look like Johnny Manziel last week…. Bill O’Brien has to be licking his chops at an opportunity to unleash Tony C on this Noles defense. I have Florida State winning this game but I would be shocked if Tony C doesn’t get his nut. Noles 34- 24.
Georgia Bulldogs -13 (2 units): Short write up here. You know exactly what you have in both teams. Clemson is a good team and will likely win the ACC but UGA is on a different level and will wear this Tigers team down. I hate Georgia. Dawgs 41 – Clemson 21
Virginia Tech/Vanderbilt over 48 (3 units): Two chances to win here. Allow me to explain. Virginia Tech is among the nations leaders in returning production. No returning player will mean more to the Hokies than QB Kyron Drones who is a menace with the ball in his hands. Drones through for 2,000 yards last season and ran for 800 more picking up yards on the ground at 5 yard per attempt clip. The best part is, he doesn’t turn the ball over with only three interceptions. He has a veteran team and staff around him and looks to bring a another bowl victory to Blacksburg. The Hokies got hot down the stretch picking up wins in 5 of their last 7 games. On the other side of the field, the Vanderbilt Doormats look to claw together a 3 win season for first year head coach, Tim Beck. The Aggies didn’t do a lot right last year but they could score. Following Tim Beck to Nashville is his coveted QB, Diego Pavia. Pavia amassed 900 yards on the ground at NMSU and another 3k through the air. Unfortunately, Pavia doesn’t have anyone to throw it too because the Commodores receiving room was absolutely fleeced in the portal… But the guy can move. Back to my opening statement. We have two cracks at this over. Ideal option is we have a backyard style game, quarterbacks run wild, and we hit the over by the intermission. Option two is ACC hopeful, Virginia Tech, high steps in to Nashville and blows the absolute doors off the Commodores like everyone else does and covers on their own. Either way I love it. NMSU offensive coordinator….way to shoot for the stars Vandy. Tech rolls 38-24.
Notre Dame/Texas A&M under 48.5 (2 units): This one has all the makings of a low scoring dog fight. Both teams have a new staff where it counts for this one… the offense. Mike Elko takes over the Aggies while Marcus Freeman brings in a new OC to partner with transfer QB Riley Leonard. Notre Dame loses their star RB and is going to struggle to hold the pocket for Leonard with the season ending injury of starting tackle, Charles Jagusah. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive line is now comprised of two freshman and three sophomores who will be facing off against one of the top defensive fronts in college football led by Nic Scourton. I’ll be honest I’m kinda talking myself in to a premium play on the Aggies here… Problem is the Aggies can’t score for shit either with Connor Weigman looking like a carbon copy of former Aggie cast off Max Johnson. Ugly ugly game in College Station, as my compatriot, Spo Spo Bulldog referenced. This one stays well under, Notre Dame squeaks it out 20-17.
Miami Hurricanes -2 (1 unit): I flipped this pick from the over 53.5 to the Hurricanes -2. The Canes outmatch the Gators at almost every position with the addition of a coveted transfer class. I have been preaching the over 53.5 to anyone that would listen but as I sit down to put pen to paper here… I don’t think we will get the participation needed to hit the over from the Florida Gators offense. The Gators offense is comprised of an average RB, an average QB, and a good sophomore WR. Problem is, they have an absolutely dogshit OL. The Hurricanes are capable of stuffing the Gators DC in a locker where he belongs but the Gators offense, or lack there of, scared me off the over and pushed me to the spread. Canes expedite the firing of Billy Napier and boy wonder side kick, 38-17.
Week 1 Leans:
Miami/Florida over 53.5: Canes gameplan: Take the top off, baby. Just like your Mom at parents weekend.
Oklahoma State -9.5: I’ll bite. The #17 team at home against South Dakota State at single digits? What could go wrong.
Southern Cal +4: Miller Moss. Heard the name here first. LSU can’t replace that offense and their defense is certainly still dog shit.
Stanford +10: Returning production at home.
Wyoming/Arizona State under 47.5: Wyoming is going to run the ball 40 times and their defense is Bison fed.
End of the month. Rent due. See you on the other side.
Cheers,
Tickets
Kommentarer