CFB 2025 Week 8 Picks -- The Sporacle

Last Week: 4-6 Overall (-1.85u)

Overall: 41-30 (+29.92u)

Last Week Recap:

When will the bleeding stop? It seems like the Football Betting Gods are punishing me for my harsh (but correct) assessment of Mike Norvell, and my betting season is tied to the performance of the Noles. It seems like every week the Noles lose, our picks lose as well. Good news is, the Noles play a glorified high school team this week and barring a catastrophic failure, they are in line for a win. Only time will tell if the same will happen for us.

I also have to admit that I made an idiotic decision last week, and I will be the first one to raise my hand and take the foul. The Oregon State play was by far the worst of the season as that game was noncompetitive from the jump. That’s on me, and I think that may be the end of the “Cross-Country Fades” – I don’t have the stats on those plays, but they’ve definitely been losers more often than they’ve been winners. Unlike the Noles, I am not afraid to pull the plug.

More good news is that with the Noles’ season officially over, I can focus on the greater landscape of college football, which can only help with our picks. I feel good about what we have on the slate this week.

Just a couple things to address in the world of CFB this week:

-              I am torn on the James Franklin firing. At the local level, it was obvious that change was needed. That relationship had soured like expired milk, and Penn State had provided him with everything he needed to take the next step, and it just wasn’t happening. On the other side, $50M+ is such a lofty buyout that it’s hard to justify. The guy was about as consistent as can be in this age of college football, and without a surefire upgrade on the hook, it could prove to be a big mistake. Think Bo Pelini firing at Nebraska in 2014. Once again, only time will tell, but nonetheless, good for James Franklin.

-              Somehow I gave Mike Norvell too much credit for thinking he could pull out a win at home against a middling Pitt team last week. The situation in Tallahassee is dire at best. Even the biggest of sunshine pumpers (Billy Tickets and Doc) have now abandoned the Mike Norvell ship and are doggy paddling to find dry land. What do the Noles do from here? Mini Mike must go, but reports are that the “money people” are not ready to make the call at this time. I can’t predict if this team will come together and continue to fight, or if they roll over like a lazy dog. If they fight and get to 6 wins, I think Norvell will be given one last chance next season. If they quit, the power brokers will be forced to find the money and we will start anew. I’m not going to root for a Noles loss in Palo Alto tomorrow night, but all I’ll say is that a loss against Stanford would make the decision for FSU admin and donors. Either way, the outlook is bleak in Tallahassee.

I think that is all for now. Got some great spots this week and we must not lose faith. Knocked down 99 times, get up 100.

Enough rah rah bullshit. Let’s go win some bets.

Picks:

Cal -8.5 -110 vs UNC (2.2u)

Disclaimer: This is NOT a Cross-Country Fade

Although this is NOT a Cross-Country Fade, the first thing to note in this matchup is the obvious travel/body clock/situation advantage. Although this isn’t the main reason for the pick, it would be neglectful not to address this.

UNC flew in to Berkeley yesterday afternoon/evening, and will play at 10:30EST on a Friday night. For one, that’s not nearly enough time to acclimate to the time zone change, and for two, Friday night games favor the home team much more than the public perceives.

The main for this pick, obviously, is that UNC is an absolute dumpster fire under Bill Belichick. We’ve got reports of UNC players’ facility access being revoked because they are injured, and told they could “rejoin the team again next season”. A newer report says that GM Michael Lombardi traveled to and lobbied with Saudi Arabia to get some capital injected into the program. And of course, we’ve known that Billy B’s granddaughter-aged girlfriend has cast some sort of hex on the legendary NFL coach. In all, it’s a shitshow in Chapel Hill.

And while the internal issues at UNC are enough to make this pick, their play on the field only hurts their case. Their offense is amongst the worst in all of FBS, and their Pass D is abysmal, which will not bode well for them against Cal gunslinger Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

This Cal team is no juggernaut themselves, but at least they have an identity on offense and the defense has shown at times that they can hold their own against FBS competition.

We are riding the Calgorithm this Friday night in what is likely to be Billy B’s last game as the UNC Head Coach.

UConn ML EVEN @ Boston College (2u)

This is a great situational spot for Jim Mora and the UConn Huskies.

This is one of only 3 Power 4 teams that UConn will face this season, and earlier in the season against a decent Syracuse team at the time, they battled valiantly. Jim Mora has a history of playing these bigger games close, and this is a great spot for the Huskies to break through and steal a win.

For Boston College, Bill O’Brien is coaching for his job after 5 straight FBS losses (including one to Stanford), and the Eagles are in the middle of a BRUTAL 8 game conference stretch here. I’m not sure securing a win against a “lowly” UConn team will help BOB, and they may be looking ahead to future ACC opponents.

For UConn, QB Joe Fagnano has played tremendously thus far with 11 TDs and 0 INTS. Running Back Camryn Edwards is also getting it done on the ground, averaging over 6 yards a tote.

For Boston College, QB Dylan Lonergan has come back to earth after taking advantage of horrible defenses early in the season, and has not thrown a TD pass in over a month. The Eagles also rank 133^rd in Rush Yards per game, if the Huskies dial in on their pass game, it’s tough to see how BC has much success on offense.

Finally, all stat models and analytics I see have UConn winning this game pretty handily.

I’m rolling with Jim Mora and these Huskies in this northeastern contest.

#HuskiesOverEveryone

Duke 1H ML -135 vs Georgia Tech (2u)

Unlike my colleague Billy Tickets, I will never shy away from giving out a chalked pick. If anything, it displays more confidence in the pick.

As we know, I was the first member of the college football media (yes, I am considering myself a part of the college football media) to find and endorse GT coach Brent Key. I’ve been saying since last year that Brent Key is the guy I want as the next FSU head coach. However, much like I was the first to back Brent Key, I have also been riding the Manny Diaz train since before the season, and now he has become a popular name in open coaching searches.

The name “Manny Diaz” makes the majority of people cringe in disgust, but I for one see a coach with untapped potential. People dismiss Coach Diaz because of his mediocre tenure at Miami, but most don’t know the lack of resources and support he was given there. I mean, Miami boosters single handedly fired him while they had no AD, and publicized talks of bringing in Mario Cristobal weeks before Diaz was officially fired. The Canes did him very wrong.

Anyways, this is a great opportunity for Diaz to further insert his name in head coaching searches. The Blue Devils come in off a bye and have another bye waiting for them after this game, which means full attention has been directed to this game.

I also think this a great matchup for the Devils stylistically, as they want to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. Georgia Tech obviously wants to run the ball on offense, and Duke QB Darian Mensah is the best QB they will face all season.

This line has been moving in Duke’s favor, and for good reason. The Blue Devils are on a 3-game win streak and have forced 3+ turnovers in each of those games. On the flip side, this Georgia Tech could easily be 3-3 if a handful of plays and calls went the other way.

I do think Brent Key has a knack to win close games so I’ll stay away from a full game side here, but I’m loving this 1H ML spot.

Take the Blue Devils to win the first half, and put some respect on Manny Diaz’s name.

Vanderbilt 1H -0.5 EVEN vs LSU (3u)

Arguably my favorite pick of the week right here. This Vanderbilt team should be undefeated if not for 2 flukey turnovers in the redzone against the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, and the opposite is true of the LSU Tigers. Quite simply, LSU has been one of the most underwhelming teams this season, and are extremely lucky to be 5-1 at this point.

Brian Kelly (known scumbag) claims that Garrett Nussmeier’s abdominal injury is much better after a bye week, but if you know anything about core injuries, those don’t heal in a week. Two interceptions against South Carolina last weekend are evidence to support that.

For the Dores and Diego Pavia, they come in off a bye week and have had the taste of that Bama loss sitting in their mouths for 2 weeks. It doesn’t take an oracle to predict that the Dores come out hot and inspired this week

This Vanderbilt team is still being undervalued, and we will take advantage of that.

LSU’s Run offense is nonexistent and with Nussmeier still banged up, I think Vandy unleashes the dogs on him on Saturday. They sacked Ty Simpson 4 times and now go up against a much lesser OLine.

On offense, Jerry Kill will scheme up some brilliance for Pavia and the offense against an over-aggressive Tiger defense.

The only downside here is that the SEC refs may try to protect one of their “top teams” and make some bogus calls against the Commies – we saw it in the Bama game.

Because of that, we will take the 1H spread and ride Diego Pavia to the bank.

#AnchorDown

Boise State -12.5 -120 vs UNLV (3u)

A sneaky play here that I am in love with.

This UNLV team is looking like a Cinderella story through 7 weeks of CFB, but their run comes to an end on the blue turf in Boise.

This UNLV team has been winning on margins all season, and I for one believe in the statistical phenomenon of regressing toward the mean. At some point, something will give.

UNLV has played no one to date and has been winning by skin of their teeth, while Boise State has actually played some formidable opponents. Point being, UNLV is unprepared for what they’re about to face on Saturday.

UNLV QB Anthony Colandrea has performed well this season and Dan Mullen is as good as they come in terms of offensive scheming, but on the defensive side of the ball is where this game will be lost.

UNLV has the 125^th ranked Total Defense in all of CFB, and going up against a Boise offense that ranks 22^nd in Total Offense, that does not bode well for the Runnin Rebels. The only reason UNLV is still undefeated is because they have a +9 turnover margin thus far, and I presume that their good defensive fortunes will run dry this weekend.

Look for the Broncos to have a big edge in the trenches and for them to run away with this one in the 2^nd half.

Missouri -1.5 -110 @ Auburn (2.2u)

Only 3 things are certain in this life: Death, taxes, and winning money by fading Hugh Freeze.

Both Mizzou and Auburn come into the game off of tough losses, albeit for different reasons, but I think Auburn’s loss will affect them much differently than Mizzou’s.

Admittedly, Auburn got prettttyyyy grimed by the SEC refs who had to prop up their glorious Kirby Smart last week, but we came out of that game as winners, so I am not complaining. After being hosed by officiating in both the UGA and Oklahoma games, it’s just hard for me to see how Auburn gets up off the mat again.

For Mizzou, they battled hard against Alabama and actually outgained the Crimson Tide in terms of yards. I think Eli Drinkwitz and Mizzou come into this game fired up to get back into the SEC hunt.

Mizzou arguably has the best run game in the country, and against a reeling Auburn team, I think eventually the dam will break running back Ahmad Hardy runs wild. On the other side of the ball, Mizzou has stuffed the run all season, and held Bama to 2.8 yards a carry last week. As we know, Auburn literally cannot throw the ball, so look for Mizzou to key in on Auburn’s run game.

Hugh Freeze’s seat is scorching hot, no matter what their athletic director may say, and the coaching job in Auburn is all but a revolving door at this point.

Mizzou wins and Hugh Freeze already has his buyout money allocated to join a handful of country clubs in the southeast.

UF -9.5 -110 vs Mississippi State (3.3u)

Gator Billy. Sunbelt Billy. Billy Taggart. Billy Napalm.

Let me just say how much of a pleasure it has been to watch you piss down your leg nearly every Saturday in the fall for the past 3.5 years.

I mean, it has undoubtedly been the worst coaching tenure at UF in history, or at least in my lifetime.

I have seen Will Muschamp lose to Georgia Southern without them completing a pass. I have seen Jim McElwain (allegedly) grope cartilaginous fish. I have seen Dan Mullen’s wife literally suck face with UF football players. But Gator Billy, you my friend have been the worst of them all.

With seemingly infinite resources, a legitimate army of football staffers, and NFL talent (including a Top 5 QB draft pick) coming out of the faucets, you underachieved almost every Saturday.

If you haven’t seen, the UAA (UF’s Athletic Department) has leaked all week that potentially, this game will be Billy Napier’s last at UF, regardless of outcome.

And while the leaking of this information is despicable and Billy Napier is essentially attending his own funeral Saturday evening in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, you MUST back the Gators in this spot.

This is essentially Billy’s Alamo, and it is looking like Gator Billy will face the same fate as Davy Crockett.

Because of that, I expect the remaining Gator army to fight, and to fight hard for their gallant leader.

Pertaining to the actual game, look for an energized Gator team that has slowly shown improvement throughout the season to give their best effort. While their schemes and operation may have been atrocious, the one thing you cannot deny is that Billy’s teams have always fought for him, and Saturday will be no different.

What’s even better is that FSU castoff Luke Kromenhoek is a member of this Mississippi State Bulldogs team, and it will bring me great joy to watch that crybaby bitch and his career fade into distant memory. If you sow jackass, you will reap jackass.

Oh, and Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell is out, so that doesn’t help either.

Gators by a million.

Please enjoy the below ode to Gator legend Billy Napier, and may he achieve boundless success in his future endeavors.

In Gainesville’s swamp, where Gators fiercely roar,

Billy Napier took the helm, with dreams to soar.

But oh, the gridiron gods turned fickle, their dice a cruel jest

Fumbles in the redzone, sacks like autumn leaves unrest

From Louisiana’s bayou, he brought hope and desire

But SEC storms proved too fierce for his fire.

Yet hats off to the coach that battled the tide,

Now whispers of farewell, on the sidelines he’ll stride.

Fare thee well, Gator Billy, to pastures anew,

Gator Nation (and Seminole Nation) thanks you, though the end rings true.

Tulane ML/Texas Tech ML/Virginia ML/Florida State ML EVEN (1.5u)

Tulane looking for revenge against Army after losing to them last year in the AAC Championship. Fade fraudulent “QB Whisperer” Dillingham, and Tech has more talent. Wazzu is out of juice and UVA rolls. Potential Noles jinx and Mini Mike and Gator Billy ride off into the sunset together?

Conclusion:

That’s all we have this week. Great slate of games and honestly couldn’t even write-up all the ones I wanted. Shoutout to my Trojans warriors descending on South Bend this weekend. FTFO. Also, Crabs vs Jerry Neuheisel sneaky best game of the week, so make sure to tune into that one. I will be in REM sleep by halftime of the Noles game.

Enjoy the weekend and let’s turn our fortunes.

See you next week.

Happy Hunting,

The Sporacle