CFB 2025 Week 7 Picks -- The Sporacle

Last Week: 2-4 Overall (-4.7u)

Overall: 39-24 (+31.77)

Last Week Recap:

It appears that the “no nonsense strategy” did not pay off as we hoped as Vegas once again got the best of us. The bigger takeaway is that my betting season oddly parallels the Florida State Seminoles football season, as all goodwill that was established early on has now washed away and we are squarely in “prove it” territory. Much like how people say Mini Mike’s future depends on a home game against Pitt in Year 6 of his tenure (how embarrassing by the way), this week can be seen as an inflection point for how the rest of our wagering season will go.

Luckily for readers, I have been in the lab all day and night for the past few days in order to right this ship and that’s exactly what I plan on doing this week.

Just a couple housekeeping items to address from the past 2 weeks:

• Let’s all take a moment to appreciate and honor former Arkansas HC Sam Pittman. Pittman getting the boot was inevitable and it is certainly sad to see him leave Fayetteville, but big #Re2pect to Sammy boy for voluntarily negotiating down his buyout a couple bucks and exiting stage left. I hope you have more than a couple ole cold beers, Sammy.

• If James Franklin has any sort of self-respect or dignity, he should take a page out of Pittman’s playbook and get the hell out of Happy Valley on his accord. The Penn State/Franklin relationship is beyond toxic at this point, and it’d be in Franklin’s best interest to take a smaller cut of his buyout and get out of there ASAP. Just call it a no-fault divorce and everyone move on with their lives.

• When do the “Steve Sarkisian fraud” talks start? Because I’m ready to start them right now. Total roster mismanagement not shoring up that OL, 2-8 against top 10 teams while at Texas, and can the guy even develop a QB anymore? Outside of his time at USC which was 20 years ago, who is the best QB he’s developed? Jake Locker 15 years ago? Whoof.

I think that’s all we need to address at the moment, so let’s move into the picks. Pretty good slate of games this week, and I really like the spots we’ve identified.

Without any further ado, let’s roll.

Picks:

Temple +10.5 -115 vs Navy (3.45u)

I mean this is what everyone reads these articles for, right? I know everyone has had this Navy vs Temple game circled on their calendars for weeks and just could not wait to see what side I’m on.

Jokes aside, I absolutely love this spot for the Owls here. Navy comes in off a big rivalry win against Air Force, and has a bye week staring them in the face after this game. On the other side, Temple is off a win against a sneaky decent UTSA team and gets a home game for the second week in a row.

The biggest selling point to me on this Temple team is their coaching staff. If you aren’t familiar with HC K.C. Keeler, here’s a little background on him. A dollar store Curt Cignetti, some would say. But it gets even better. On defense, coordinator Brian Smith from Rice will be calling the plays. Why is that noteworthy? At Rice last year, Smith faced the option offense twice, and in the second meeting which was against Navy, his defense held the Midshipmen to just 10 points. SOLD!

On offense, the Owls are going to want to throw the ball, and seeing that Navy has played option offenses two weeks in a row themselves, they may not be fully prepared to stop this Temple offense.

On top of that, Navy has played one of the weakest schedules in all of the FBS, and this will arguably be their biggest test to date in a less than ideal spot.

Take the double digit points and back the Owls.

USC -2.5 -110 vs Michigan (2.75u)

Did I slander Lincoln Riley last week? Yes. Has USC grossly underperformed for the better part of the last 20 years? They sure have. Does Spo always ride with his BOYS through thick and thin? You bet your ass he does.

After my army of Trojan warriors sent to Champaign came up short a couple weeks ago, the army has regrouped and will be returning to Los Angeles in pursuit of some much-needed revenge.

I’ve been riding the Trojans since Miller Moss (my boy) was QB last year, and although he has departed, my commitment to the Trojans has never wavered. In this same matchup last year, the Trojans undoubtedly outplayed that Michigan team in Ann Arbor, but thanks to some crucial penalties (or lack thereof), the Wolverines skated by, and the Trojans’ season was all downhill from there.

With revenge in mind and a QB better equipped to run this Lincoln Riley offense, the Trojans will be looking to get their lick back, and this is the perfect situation for them to do so.

Coming off a bye and going against an offense that is limited in the passing game, the stars are aligning for these Trojans to win, and win BIGLY.

I expect QB Jayden Maiava to torch this Michigan Pass D that has been mediocre thus far, and look for USC’s new bulked up DLine to stop this Michigan run game even moreso than last year.

The Trojans get their lick back and my Trojan warriors celebrate by consuming every drop of liquor from Malibu to Laguna Beach.

Unwavering Faith. Ultimate Belief. Fight On.

Arizona ML +105 vs BYU (2u)

Sneaky one of the best matchups on the slate right here, and a great spot for Zona.

BYU will be playing their 3^rd road game in 4 weeks, and Arizona get to stay at home for the second week in a row.

On paper BYU is undefeated, but just taking a surface level peek at their wins you’ll see that they’re absolutely worthless. On the flip side,  Arizona’s lone loss to Iowa State looks like a blowout, but diving deeper you would find they were only outgained by 25 yards and untimely penalties and turnovers really killed the Wildcats.

For BYU, I think they’re going to have a real tough time going against a defense that will be much better than they’ve seen so far this year. They haven’t played anyone with a pass rush, and Zona will more than certainly bring some pressure at home against a true freshman QB in Bear Bachmeier.

Stopping Bachmeier from scrambling and taking off will be paramount for this Zona defense, but if they can keep him in check, I think Zona is in a great position to get a big-time win at home and get back into the Big 12 race.

#BearDown.

Oregon State ML +115 vs Wake Forest (4u)

If you’ve read my write-ups this season, you already know what this is. We’re gonna start calling these “Cross Country Fades”.

By no means am I backing this poopoo Oregon State team, but rather fading the hell out of a Wake Forest team that is coming off a massive road win and now travels 2,500 miles across the country for a non-conference game.

While I am not admittedly not a believer in these Beavers, they have improved on a week to week basis which is a positive for them. For Wake Forest, they come into this game severely banged up. Star RB Demond Claiborne left last week’s game and did not return, as did QB Robby Ashford. If they play this week, they won’t be 100%, and the travel definitely does not help their recovery.

Additionally for the Beavers, they just fired their special teams coordinator as atrocious ST play arguably cost them games against Houston and App State. This could provide some hope for the players in Corvallis.

Look for the Beavers to get off to a hot start and finally get a couple bounces go their way against a Wake Forest team that very well may be ego depleted.

#LosBeavs

Oklahoma ML -110 vs Texas (1.65u)

Such a stinky cheese spot but I’m gonna hold my nose and gobble it down.

Last week was the first time I watched this Texas team at length and holy shit. They are absolutely atrocious. Watching that Texas offense gave me Noles 2024 flashbacks. I mean, they couldn’t block anyone and Arch Manning looks like a deer in headlights.

The few times they had receivers butt naked against an undisciplined Gators D, Archie proceeded to shit down his leg and overthrow everything. What are Texas boosters and donors even thinking right now? This roster costs upwards of 30 million dollars and this big retard Arch is getting $5M of it??? That’s bad, man. And to be fair to Arch, I think the OL is a much bigger issue than him, but he’s still ass.

For Oklahoma, I really don’t even care if John Mateer plays or not. From what I saw last week, there is no way in hell this Texas OL is gonna block this Oklahoma front. This is gonna look like Auburn vs OU 2.0.

I could see Texas’s Defense keeping them in this game for a while, but sooner or later that dam is going to break and OU will score points. And I don’t know how Texas plans to do that.

As I alluded to earlier, you can bet big money that UT power brokers are privately asking each other if Steve Sarkisian is the right guy for the job. They certainly won’t pay all that money for results like this.

Take the better QB and better coach in this one.

Boomer.

UGA -3.5 -105 @ Auburn (2.1u)

More stinky, stinky cheese for you sir? Yes please. This is even stinkier than the Texas game, but I will be more than happy to indulge.

All you really need to consider is Jackson Arnold and Hugh Freeze, or Gunner Stockton and Kirby Smart. Like really, what are we doing here? We’re gonna make this line 3.5 because Auburn is off a bye and it’s at home? UGA already went to Knoxville and beat a much better team in a much more hostile environment. And you really think Hugh Freeze was actually prepping for this game instead of hitting the links?

This obviously isn’t the same caliber of UGA team we’ve seen in the past, but come on now. This Auburn team is hot ass and has put up less than 500 yards of offense in their past 2 games COMBINED.

Until that glue eater Jackson Arnold can show me he can throw a football with some modicum of consistency, I will happily fade the backup school that doesn’t know if their mascot is a tiger or an eagle.

Go freaking Dawgs.

Texas A&M -8 -110 vs UF (3.3u)

Don’t think you’re being smart if you predict Sunbelt Billy and those Gators are turning around their season once again. For one, that game against Texas was at home, which is the only place the Gators actually have a chance of winning. And two, I know high school teams that could compete with that God awful Texas team. And mind you, the Gators still almost blew that game.

Now let me be clear, I do not subscribe to the idea that this TAMU is the best in the SEC or some sort of juggernaut. They’re pretty good, but they’re not some unstoppable force.

The good thing is you don’t need to be an unstoppable force to beat this Gator team. USF and LSU both demonstrated that.

We saw a lesser Aggie team walk into the Swamp last year and ragdoll the Gators, and I expect the beatdown to be even more severe in College Station this year.

Without a miraculous play by UF WR Dallas Wilson last week, that Gators offense looked no different than weeks prior, and you can be certain that Mike Elko and his staff have Wilson accounted for this week.

TAMU will actually present a threat in the run game on offense, something the Gators haven’t seen in SEC play so far this season, and when they did see it against Miami, it was goodnight Jim Kyte.

As much as I would love Gator Billy to pull off this upset and stick around in Hogtown just a little while longer, it ain’t gonna happen.

Lay the points and say goodbye to the Gator Billy era.

Ousmane Kromah Anytime Touchdown -110 (2.2u)/ Lawayne McCoy Anytime Touchdown +450 (.5u)

The fact that a home game against a middling ACC team in Norvell’s 6^th year as head coach is the “make or break” point in his time in Tallahassee is all you really need to know.

I, of course, have known that Mini Mike Norvell was not and would never be the guy to bring this Florida State football program back to prominence ever since the gut-wrenching and inexcusable loss to Jacksonville State in 2021, but those without the prescient and prophetic foresight like myself cannot be faulted for not seeing the inevitable conclusion. So, here we are, as sunshine pumpers and Disney Noles alike clench their asses until noon this Saturday in hopes that their adamant and blind support for a lame duck coach is proven “correct”. LOL. As if.

The Noles mustered up enough retard hype in Week 1 against an unprepared and unfocused Alabama team to secure an upset victory, which seemingly had everyone and their mothers sprinting to buy Norvell stock once again.

I will admit, the pure astonishment of beating a markedly better Alabama team had me in a stupor for a couple weeks, but once I watched the first quarter of that UVA game, I snapped out the daydream and back into reality. It took an ass beating from Miami for casual Noles fans to finally snap out of their own hypnosis, and now start asking the same question I asked over 4 years ago – “is this guy a FRAUD?!?!”

I have known the answer to this question for many years and have tried to tell anyone who would listen, but my proclamations have fallen on deaf ears, and my life has been a full-blown Cassandra complex ever since.

Anyways, in what should usually be a layup of a game for the Florida State football program has turned into a do or die situation for Mike Norvell, and you know his ass is clenched even tighter than his sunshine pumping supporters.

The question now is, “what FSU team shows up on Saturday?” Your guess is as good as mine, because that question encapsulates everything about Mini Mike’s time at FSU – you just don’t know what you’re gonna get on a week-to-week basis.

While I do think Mike should be able to rally the troops enough to beat a depleted Pitt team in a freshman QB’s first road start, I cannot give out a play on the spread with a good conscience.

However, what I can do is trust what I have consistently seen so far (or as consistent as things can be under Norvell), and that is backing two players that have shown great flashes this season.

RB Ousmane Kromah is your best offensive weapon, plain and simple. Non-ball knowers may furrow their brow when reading that after Kromah had an untimely fumble against Miami, but do not be fooled – this guy is far and away your best player. People are quick to forget Dalvin Cook, the greatest RB in FSU history, also had his own fumble issues his freshman season (and no, I am not saying Kromah is Dalvin Cook lol). But one fumble does not negate the talent Kromah has displayed thus far.

Any smart and conscious person sees that Kromah needs the ball more, and while Mini & Co. certainly do not qualify as smart and conscious, I think even these blind squirrels understand Kromah needs more touches. We’ll take him to cross the goal line in this one.

Another player I will sprinkle on is Lawayne McCoy, who got some more burn last week as Jayvan Boggs is banged up and got into the endzone himself against Miami. Look for McCoy to find a hole in this zone defense coverage and make a man miss en route to the endzone.

As for the game, as mentioned I do think the Noles pull this one out and Mini regains the blessing of his deluded supporters, but I cannot advise anyone to lay 10 points on a team that is just so volatile. Take the Noles at your own peril.

FSU +2 vs Pitt/Ga Tech -2.5 vs Va Tech/Oregon +5 vs Indiana/Texas Tech -2 vs Kansas 12pt Teaser EVEN (2u)

I can cosign a Noles ML play. Va Tech is defeated after a loss to Wake last week and Brent Key rolls. Oregon talent is too much for Coach Cig to overcome. And the same can be said for Texas Tech’s hired mercenaries against a mid Kansas team.

Conclusion:

I hope everyone enjoys the games this week, and the time slots of these contests give us some good matchups all throughout the day.

And for my Noles who think this Pitt game will somehow provide some sort of new evidence that Mini Mike is actually the guy, you are oh so mistaken. There will be no new evidence even with a win, and his appeals have been exhausted for quite some time. He is guilty as charged and sentenced to life for the crime of fraud.

I will see you next week.

Cheers,

The Sporacle