CFB 2025 Week 4 Picks -- The Sporacle

Last Week: 6-5 Overall (+4.93u)

Full Season: 28-8 Overall (+45.47u)

Last Week Recap:

After starting the season off hotter than a fat girl at a Golden Corral buffet, The Sporacle has finally returned to earth. We went up nearly 5 units last week despite only going 6-5, solely because of the exemplary unit management we exhibited. We’ve got another week of tight lines, and while this week may not have the big marquee matchups that we saw last week, I have identified some spots where we can make our hay.

Just to quickly address some current situations in the landscape of college football entering Week 4:

• Clemson has officially fallen off, and Dabo Swinney has been exposed as a coordinator merchant. Ever since the departure of Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, that Clemson program has not been up to snuff, and I think it’s now safe to attribute Elliott and Venables for the Tigers’ success. Buckle up Clemson fans, cuz Dabo ain’t going nowhere.

• It’s extremely karmatic that Nico Iamaleava, the one who really opened the door for all of the NIL deal insanity, is now reaping what he’s sown – for all intents and purposes, his career is now over after making a horrible decision and chasing dollars instead of development and opportunity, and now he must lay in the bed he has made. Best of luck, Nico.

• It’s also wildly ironic that UCLA Athletics are essentially dead moving forward due to their incompetence regarding the NIL space, while it was their very own Ed O’Bannon who opened up this Pandora’s box of NIL when he filed the original antitrust lawsuit against the NCAA. Congratulations, Ed – you killed your own school. Dumbass.

• While the mighty mighty Florida Gata will undoubtedly be searching (and certainly have already been searching via backchannels) for a new head coach, they are in a bigger predicament than most gen pop fans realize. Lane Kiffin, the King of Oxford, isn’t uprooting his life to move to Hogtown and enter that pressure cooker of a job. Brent Key has a clear path to the playoffs at GT this year, would miss early national signing day and be behind the 8ball in the transfer portal at UF, and probably won’t take that job anyways. So, who’s left? Jon Sumrall? Jedd Fisch? Jon Gruden??? None of those guys really move my needle. Just keep Brian Hartline away from Alachua County and we’ll be all good.

• It’s also hilarious that Gator fans, who once lambasted Lane Kiffin for his tiffs with Urban Meyer and Steve Spurrier, are now literally on their knees begging for Lane to come and save their program. Are they going to beg Graham Mertz to come back next? Because they’d be 3-0 right now if he was still around. How pathetic.

• The AP Poll either needs to completely overhaul their voting requirements and voters, or just dissolve the poll entirely. AP voter Koki Riley needs to be on the FBI Top 10 Most Wanted with this ranking, and Haley Sawyer’s “hehe I’m just a girl” justification for her own ineptitude infuriated me in a way I cannot articulate.

• Shoutout to Billy Tickets for bouncing back skrong last week. That’s my BOY.

Now I'll hop off my soapbox and we can figure out how to inflict more financial damage on Vegas this weekend. Follow me.

 Picks:

Bryce Underwood Anytime Touchdown +150 vs Nebraska (3u) / Nebraska ML +110 vs Michigan (3u)

We’re gonna start with my favorite plays of the week right off the rip, and we’ve got 2 plays in one game.

While Nebraska hasn’t looked overly impressive thus far in 2025, Michigan has looked even more underwhelming to date. Bryce Underwood has flashed against lesser opponents early this season, but he struggled passing the ball against a good Oklahoma defense on the road in Week 2. While OU’s defense is better than this Nebraska defense, I still expect Underwood to experience some growing pains in a hostile road environment in Lincoln.

However, with Sherrone Moore sidelined this week as a result of his “involvement” in Michigan’s illegitimate 2023 National Championship run, I think we see high school coaching legend Biff Poggi unleash Underwood’s running ability this week, much like he did last week. It should also be noted that Nebraska gave up 2 rushing touchdowns to Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby in Week 1, which makes the Underwood TD pick extremely attractive to me.

Regarding the full game, I love Nebraska in this spot.

Motivation for the Cornhuskers will be extra high this week as Sherrone Moore literally handpicked this game as one he would sit out to serve his suspension, potentially implying that they’re not worried about these Huskers. You know Matt Rhule has been using this to fire up his team all week, and I expect the Huskers to play inspired football come Saturday.

On top of that, Patrick Mahomes cosplayer Dylan Raiola has the opportunity to enter the Heisman conversation this week with a good performance, as he’s quietly put together a very strong first quarter of the season.

And let’s not forget the Huskers actually outplayed eventual National Champions Ohio State last year and should have won that game.

Take the Huskers straight up in this highly anticipated matchup.

Baylor ML -130 vs Arizona State (2.6u)

So much for the “QB Whisperer” anointment of Kenny Dillingham, huh?

Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt has looked like a total bum through 3 weeks, and essentially got shut down against a presumably below average defense in Mississippi State 2 weeks ago. And while ASU will lean on the run and Baylor did get eviscerated on the ground against Auburn in Week 1, the Baylor Run D responded nicely in Week 2 against a solid SMU offense.

For Baylor, I expect Sawyer Robertson to light it up through the air against a porous Arizona State defense. The guy has thrown for 400+ against SMU and Auburn this season, and Robertson could also enter himself into Heisman discussions if he puts on a similar display this weekend.

The Dava Aranda hot seat discussion started up after the Week 1 loss for seemingly the hundredth time, but if you know Dave Aranda, you know that the guy just absolutely battles.

Look for Baylor to get up early in this one and the Sun Devils having to rely on Sam Leavitt and the passing game to play from behind. I’ll bet against that all day.

Sic ‘Em.

Utah -3 -110 vs Texas Tech (3.3u)

Probably the hardest game to handicap this week, but we’re gonna take a swing at it.

Both of these teams look great statistically coming into this game, but that’s mostly because neither team has played a worthwhile opponent to this point.

With that being equal and not really having a good idea of who these teams truly are, I’m more than happy to roll with tried-and-true Kyle Whittingham over the squad of misfit mercenaries from Lubbock.

You never have to question the physicality of the Utes under Whittingham, and frankly, I never bought the Texas Tech hype to begin with. There’s still a lot of questions about both of these teams, but I think we definitely have more answers on the Utes.

When it comes to a tight contest like this, it’s always reasonable to go with the team that has the better coach and the better QB. While you could argue that Tech QB Behren Morton might have the advantage on Utah QB Devon Dampier (which I don’t agree with), it’s a fact that Kyle Whittingham is a superior coach to Joey Maguire.

Morton will experience some pressure for the first time this season, and I think Dampier’s legs will be the difference in this one.

And don’t read too much into this game being a 10am local kick and somehow having a negative effect on the home field advantage. It’s not like the Mormons in Salt Lake are liquored up for night games there anyways.

SMU vs TCU Over 63 -110 (1.65u)

Obligatory play here for the final installment of The Battle of the Iron Skillet.

While it’s sad to see this beloved rivalry come to an end (for now at least), it would only be right for this game to turn into a shootout as it frequently has been in recent years.

This TCU team lit up the Mustangs via the air last year and only lost that game because of 3 non-offensive touchdowns from SMU. With Josh Hoover back and Sonny Dykes looking to get the last laugh against his former employer, look for the Horned Frogs to keep their foot on the pedal for 60 minutes in this one.

I like TCU to win this game, but in a rivalry game where there isn’t a huge difference between talent and coaching ability, I can’t justify laying 7+ points. If you can get the Frogs at 6 points or less either live or pregame, I could cosign that, but until then, we’re taking the full game Over and will savor the final meeting of these two historied Texas schools.

Hawaii +3 -110 vs Fresno State (2.2u)

Timmy Chang. Micah Alejado. On The Rock. That’s really all you need to know in this one.

While I do think Matt Entz is taking this Fresno State program in the right direction, I simply must back Timmy Chang and the Rainbow Warriors in a home conference game.

While Fresno State has handled their business so far this year, so has Hawaii, and they won their past two games without Young Uce Alejado taking the snaps, and it’s sensible to expect a spark being added to the Bows offense this weekend with Alejado returning to action. Look for the young star to sling it all over the yard on Saturday, against a team that gave up nearly 400 passing yards to an absolutely abysmal Oregon State team 2 weeks ago. And the Bulldogs were actually outgained by 200+ yards by that Beaver team, despite winning the game, for what it's worth.

Another semi-noteworthy point is that Matt Entz’s name is being floated around for the UCLA job, which may have an effect on the Fresno State locker room.

Coach Chang is 16-6-1 ATS at home, and I think he adds another tally to the win column in this one. We’ll take the points to be safe, but I’m backing the Bows in this one.

#AllEightIslands #PackChing #BRADDAHHOOD

Tulane +13 -110 vs Ole Miss (2.2u)

This line feels too good to be true, but that’s exactly what Vegas wants you to think.

It’s been confirmed that Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss will get the start on Saturday for the Rebs, and while he looked damn good last week against Arkansas, he’ll get a tougher test against the defensive-minded Jon Sumrall’s Green Wave this weekend.

Ole Miss as a whole has not looked impressive to start this year despite their 3-0 record, and Taylen Green put up over 400 yards of offense himself on the Rebs just a week ago. Tulane transfer QB Jake Retzlaff dominated Manny Diaz’s defense on the ground last week, and we can expect him to have similar success on the ground this week.

This is a weird sandwich spot for Ole Miss as well, as they are coming off back to back SEC wins and are probably looking ahead to LSU next week, as that game will make or break their season.

Jon Sumrall can really help his case of being worthy of a SEC job with a win in Oxford, and I expect the Green Wave to come out hot against their best opponent of the season.

Don’t doubt yourself, this is just too many points for Ole Miss to be laying in this scenario.

The Green Wave covers, with an puncher's chance of winning outright.

Auburn Team Total Under 19.5 -115 vs Oklahoma (2.3u)

While I do think everyone joining the Oklahoma and John Mateer hype train after 3 weeks is a tad premature, I just don’t see a way in which Auburn is going to compete offensively in this game.

It’s now confirmed that Auburn mental midget QB Jackson Arnold is virtually useless with his arm despite having arguably the best receiving corp in the SEC, and this Brent Venables defense is always extremely stout against the run. So how is Auburn expecting to score points in this uber-hostile environment on Saturday afternoon? I certainly don’t know.

While Jackson Arnold didn’t get the fairest of shakes last year in Norman, the fact of the matter is that he’s just not the guy. He’s not going to be the guy that go can win big games in the SEC, and that’s just the truth at this point. And he is more than liable to have a catastrophic meltdown in a very unwelcoming “homecoming”.

While I do think Oklahoma wins this game, laying 7 gives me some pause as John Mateer will face some real pressure from this Auburn front and could very well make some careless mistakes himself.

I think Brent Venables will do everything he can to make sure he himself beats Auburn and Jacksn Arnold this week, and that will be by playing it slightly conservative on offense and unleashing the dogs on his former QB.

I don’t hate the OU spread here, but I think the Auburn TT Under is safer.

Respectfully, this guy looks like he ate glue as a kid

Miami -9.5 vs -110 vs UF (2.2u)

Where do we even begin with this game?

Sunbelt Billy’s fate at UF is all but sealed at this point, and the hype behind Miami hasn’t been higher than right now in the past 20 years. So the question is, will the Gata get up off the mat and go to battle for their deadbeat coach for the millionth time? I think they might, but if they do, it will be a short-lived effort.

This Gator team somewhat reminds me of the 2024 Noles – while UF’s defense is markedly better than the 2024 Noles, it’s the same situation where the defense is actually keeping you in games, but the offense is just so pitiful that the defense eventually gasses and quits. You’re just not gonna beat anyone when your offense can’t score 20 points.

We’ve seen time and time again that Gator Billy just refuses to make any adjustments to his offensive gameplan and playcalling, and DJ Lagway is doing him no favors. I mean, the kid single handedly lost that LSU game last weekend. And no matter what anyone inside of the Heavener Center in Gainesville says, LLLagway is just not the alpha leader this team needs. And with rumors spreading that the locker room is divided in Gainesville, things are bound to get ugly sooner rather than later.

Outside of the issues in Gainesville, this Miami team looks damn good. Dare I say Carson Beck is better equipped to lead this Miami team on a playoff run than Cam Ward was? That’s not certain at this time, but it’s starting to look that way.

The real selling point on this pick is that the Gators got their doors blown off by this Hurricanes team last season, in Week 1, at home. Now they travel to Miami coming off of back to back losses, and are expected to keep it closer than last year? Against an even better Miami team?

And I know people will say, “well they really outplayed LSU last week”, and that’s fair to say. But what’s also fair to say is that that LSU is actually pretty mid, and Garrett Nussmeier is battling his own ailment. So how much stock are you putting into that “close loss”?

I say all this to say, if the Gators don’t score on their first drive or two, and Miami does, I think we see this Gator team roll over like a dog and Mario Cristobal puts the nail in Billy Napier’s coffin. And if I were Lagway, I’m taking a dive, preserving my eligibility, getting the hell out of that dumpster fire, and forgetting everything that has transpired the past ~18 months in Gainesville.

Oh how poetic it would be for Miami to send UF to the same pit of irrelevancy that they themselves endured for the past 20 years. Good luck, lil bro.

Oklahoma +2/Kansas -4/Indiana +2.5 9pt Teaser +105 (2u)

Love Oklahoma at anything shorter than 4. Kansas will be fired up to get some revenge against a bad WVU that bested them a year ago. And we ride the home team in Indiana in what should essentially be a play-in game for the CFB Playoff.

Conclusion:

While the slate isn’t crazy this week, there’s some sneaky good games in here that ball knowers will certainly enjoy. Stick to the script, and let’s have another week in the green. See you next week.

Cheers,

The Sporacle