2025 CFB Week 1 Picks -- Spo

Last Week: 3-1 Overall (+2.37u)

Intro:

Guess who’s back? Back again. Spo is back. Tell a friend.

I hope everyone enjoyed the measly appetizer that was last week’s slate, and honestly calling it an appetizer is being generous. I would consider last week as more of an oshibori as we clean our hands to prepare to eat this week’s seemingly infinite omakase the fine chefs of College Football have prepared for us. My only recommendation to said chefs is to never make another game in Ireland ever again – man, what an absolute slop fest that was.

My sources are reporting that Billy Tickets is about 14 beers deep playing golf at a “work event”, so we’ll see if the trusty thoroughbred even makes it to the post this week.

Anywho, let’s build off the little momentum we created last week and continue to cruise into this college football season. ALL ABOARD! Let’s roll.

Picks:

Miami (OH) TT Under 10.5 -130 vs Wisconsin (1.3u)

Let’s get started with an absolutely worthless game that no one will watch to break the ice here in Week 1.

Luke Fickell’s seat is getting mighty toasty up in Madison, Wisconsin, evidenced by the dismissal of OC Phil Longo, who tried to implement an up-tempo offense designed “for playmakers” during his tenure. Issue is, there’s not exactly a bevy of “playmakers” in the Wisconsin.

The Badgers bring in Jeff Grimes from Kansas who will try to install the physical run game that was once the bread and butter for Wisky.

We’re taking the Miami TT Under here due to the fact that the Redhawks replace every starter on offense from a year ago, and the expectation is the Badgers will come out fired up as their schedule is an absolute gauntlet this year, so they need to make their wins count.

Bad day to be a light beer, a cheese curd, or a Redhawk in Madison.

Cincinnati +6.5 -110 vs Nebraska (2.2u)

Squares and losers alike are sprinting to the ticket counter to take the Cornhuskers to cover 6.5 in this neutral site contest. You know what I tell them? Good.

Everyone talks about how Matt Rhule’s teams make a massive leap in Year 3, and that may be true. But you know who else takes a leap in Year 3? Scott Satterfield. The guy went 11-2 at App State in his 3^rd year and would go on to win the Sun Belt 3 years in a row. He also won ACC Coach of the Year in his first season at Louisville, but fled for the Cincinnati job after Covid and Louisville’s inept NIL operation halted his progress.

On the Nebraska side, their entire defense was pillaged after DC Tony White took the FSU job, and I expect the Cornhuskers to deal with the ramifications of that, especially early in the season.

It is not well-known, but the Bearcats are fairly invested in NIL for their football program, and I think everyone immediately dismissing the Bearcats will be in for a rude awakening once the clock hits zero in this game.

I expect QB Brendan Sorsby, who is making over $1.5M this year, to make his own leap and put himself on the map this season.

Take the +6.5 and witness the look of bewilderment on the faces of said squares once this game gets to the 2^nd half.

FSU 1Q TT Over 0.5 -150 vs Bama (4.5u)

I am not eating the cheese.

I am not eating the cheese.

I am not eating the cheese.

As Noles fans and college football fans alike sit on the edge of their seat to see if Mini Mike Norvell will once again fall on his face and expose himself as the fraud he is, or if he can cheerlead his team to success and rise from the ashes like a phoenix, I find myself firmly on the side of the former scenario.

With that being said, if you know Mike Norvell, you know that he is a tricky little rat that always throws a good first punch.

While I do not envision the Seminoles winning this game outright, I do see Gus Malzahn and Mini Mike putting their heads together to concoct an opening scripted drive that would succeed against the ’85 Bears.

A line of 0.5 for a Team Total would be beyond disrespectful in almost any scenario, but for a team coming off 2-10 going against a team with the most talent in the country, it seems par for the course.

However, when the Noles start off with a play action pass up the seam for 25+ yards to move into Bama territory, bookmakers will know they had made a mistake.

We’re not betting on Mini Mike, we’re betting on Mini Mike throwing a sucker punch to get the fight started. And that’s exactly what he will do.

FSU 1H +7.5 -130 vs Bama (2.6u)

This is more of an anti-Bama bet than it is pro-Nole bet.

In recent interviews, Ty Simpson looks like a 15-year-old highschooler whose mother just found a fifth of Raspberry Burnett’s in his “gym bag”. Translation: he’s scared shitless.

More than that, Bama comes into this game without their starting RB, starting RG, and starting NG, all of whom were slated to be impact players. Doak Campbell will be absolutely rocking (well, as rocking as it can be now that it is a glorified high school stadium), and I think we see Ty Simpson and the Tide a little scrambled in the first half.

Additionally, there appears to be some rain in the forecast depending on what source you use, and that does not seem to bode well for the pseudo air-raid passing attack that new OC Ryan Grubb is going to impalement.

I think Bama will pull this game out in the end, and Mini Mike (and myself) will go home blue balled once again, but I do not expect this to be a cakewalk in the first half. Take the points.

Texas/Ohio State Under 48 -125 (1.25u)

This is far and away the toughest game to pick on the slate, and that’s exactly why we’re not picking a side here.

Both teams are loaded with talent, and both teams (basically) have brand new starting QBs. The Shoe will undoubtedly be rocking and will be a massive edge for the Buckeyes, but they also deal with their own troubles – both OC Chip Kelly and DC Jim Knowles moved on, so longtime WR Coach Brian Hartline and former NFL DC Matt Patricia will be calling the shots for the Buckeyes this year.

However, I’m not as convinced of Texas’s presumed superiority as others – this is a team that just a season ago lost to UGA twice, was on the ropes against Vanderbilt and Clemson, and should have lost to purported “QB Whisperer” Kenny Dillingham in the playoffs. Oh, and they lost straight up to OSU in the semifinals last year (albeit a tight game). They are certainly not the invincible unit that some are claiming.

Squares are racing to take Texas, while the self-proclaimed sharps have their noses in the air and will gladly watch the spread tighten for the Bucks. However, the sharpest of the plays is clearly on the Under.

I would buy this up to 48 at least, and potentially look for a live under if someone scores early.

Baylor ML +110 vs Auburn (2u)

This game will officially be dubbed “The Freak Bowl” as we get two of the weirdest coaches in CFB going head to head on Friday night. Hugh Freeze might not even be weird, maybe more of a pervert and total fraud, but you get the idea.

Auburn certainly has more upper echelon of talent in this one, but we’ll see how much of an impact that truly has against a Baylor team that returns mostly everyone.

Moreso, I just have a bad feeling about what’s going on on The Plains in Alabama. Auburn will have THREE different play callers this year, one dedicated for each down on offense, something that I certainly have never heard of before. There’s also reports that Jackson Arnold is showing signs of being a complete mental midget, and the coaching staff is trying to coddle him like an infant in hopes he doesn’t mentally infarct before the season even starts. Yeah, I’m good on that.

Look for the Baylor Bears to pick up where they left off last season, and don’t be surprised if we see Jackson Arnold sucking thumb in the fetal position by halftime. Sic ‘Em.

Maryland -14 -125 vs FAU (1.25u)

It would be criminal not to show the DMV some love here in Week 1.

Mike Locksley finds himself on warming seat as well this season, but there is reason for optimism in College Park. Locksley has fully admitted that his locker room was putrefied by bad apples solely focused on NIL last season, but he has since put that behind him and claims the locker room has been sterilized and is in much better shape this season.

The Terps shore up the defensive backfield, which was a nightmare last season, and on the other side, FAU is essentially starting fresh with 55 new incoming players, along with a new 33-year-old head coach in Zach Kittley.

We’ll see if Locksley has exterminated all the cancers from this team, but even if he hasn’t, those cancers should not rear their ugly head in a lopsided victory in Week 1.

Miami (FL) 1H ML +110 (1.5u)

It truly pains me to make this pick, but being a sharp and having a fiduciary duty to provide mortal winners to my clients, I legally must hand this one out.

The Fighting Irish come off a national title appearance, and as great as a coach as Marcus Freeman is, I fear there may be trouble to replicate last season, at least to start.

The Catholics trot out a new QB in CJ Carr, who somewhat controversially won the starting nod, and are also dealing with a slew of injuries in Week 1. Not great.

On the other side, Miami brings in proven starter Carson Beck at QB, who by all accounts has been a great leader in the locker room, and return a good amount of production on the defensive side.

Miami has a new DC in Corey Heatherman, who should bring a simplified scheme that allows the talent they have to play freely, contrary to what Lance Guidry was drawing up a season ago.

Miami is unproven at WR and I expect Freeman to pencil whip Mario Cristotitties in the 2^nd half, but I think the Canes will come out hot and find success in the first half.

Taking Miami straight up in 1H, but also don’t hate the 1H under.

TCU 1H -2.5 -110 (2.2u)

To put it simply, I’m just not buying the Chapel Bill hype. At least in Week 1.

Call me cynical, but I’m having a hard time putting my faith in a 73 year old first-time college head coach with only a $1 million buyout and his son seemingly waiting in the wings to take over as HC. The whole thing just wreaks, and I’m not talking about Bill’s diaper.

But seriously, UNC brings in 70 new players, one of which is their now-starting QB from a G5 school, and we’re all just supposed to blindly follow this geriatric into battle? Nah, not me.

Sonny Dykes has proven that he is at a bare minimum a decent coach, returns a borderline elite QB, and a good amount of production on defense. I’m taking that guy over the pensioner with unknown motives any day of the week.

Keenan Memorial will certainly be rocking, but I see Chapel Bill being a short-lived case study when it’s all said and done.

Utah ML/Georgia Tech ML Parlay +121 (1.5u)

Coach Whittingham at Utah can take a sigh of relief knowing that his team’s success will no longer be tied to the health status of Cam Rising.

Utah brings in twitchy QB Devon Dampier from New Mexico along with his OC which should ease the gelling on offense for the Utes. On defense, we always know they’re stout and play physical as hell. I suspect that this alone will be too much for Nico and HC DeShaun Foster to handle, as I expect it to be a bumpy ride for the Bruins this season.

As for Georgia Tech, they have Brent Key. That’s really all you need to know, but they also bring back a ton of production on both sides of the ball, as well as OC Buster Faulkner who just inked an extension. The Jackets do lose elite DC Tyler Santucci to the NFL, but do bring in Blake Gideon from Texas, who actually played under Will Muschamp back in his playing days.

For Colorado, I just think there’s been way too much turnover and chaos this offseason, and I’m having trouble seeing the Buffs have the mediocre success they had last season.

Parlay these two Moneylines you’ll be sitting pretty.

Texas +13/Miami +13.5/South Carolina +3.5 -125 (2.5u) (11pt Teaser)

Pretty straightforward here. Texas should hold this to a single digit game, if not win outright. Miami should do the same if they can score in the first half. South Carolina will be fired up by the always-inspiring Shane Beamer against a Virginia Tech team that will likely underperform once again.

Tease this 11 points and this feels pretty safe.

Jeremiah Smith Under 84.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1.1u)

When others zig, we zag. Jeremiah Smith has seemingly been anointed as the greatest college WR ever at the ripe age of 19, but let’s pump the brakes here a little.

And do not be mistaken, I’m not discounting his talent or play at all. Rather what I’m saying is, in the same vein as the above, that he is not some godly unstoppable force. Just go watch the film of the semifinal game last year.

Texas has the recipe to shut him down, and will heavily shade to his side of the field with safety help.

Ohio State may very well have success via the pass game in this matchup, but I doubt it’s from Jeremiah Smith.

Jaylin Lucas Anytime Touchdown +375 (0.25u)

Fun dart throw for the Noles game. Norvell spammed Jaylin Lucas in the Georgia Tech game last year before he got injured, and we know Malzahn loves utilizing elite speed on jet sweeps and end-arounds.

Jaylin Lucas or Micah Danzy will bust one of these flukey plays at some point this game, it's just a matter of who.

Games to Watch:

LSU @ Clemson

I don’t have a play in this game (yet) as I just can’t get behind the current -4.5 number for the Clemson Tigers, but I will certainly be looking for a live line if LSU goes up early.

To me, this is the most intriguing game of the week, as there is much more unknown about this two compared to Texas/OSU. Will Clemson take a jump with their returning veterans? Has Cajun Kelly finally pieced his puzzle together?

The answers to those questions are both unclear, and that’s what will make this a must watch game.

That’s all she wrote this week. Sit back, fire some wagers, and enjoy the fact that college football is here until January. It will be gone before we know it.

Cheers,

Spo