2025 CFB Picks Week 5 -- The Sporacle

Last Week: 5-5 Overall (-0.15u)

Full Season: 33-13 Overall (+45.32)

Last Week Recap:

After what was an absolute rollercoaster of a Saturday last weekend, when the dust finally settled, we ended basically even for the weekend and only gave back 0.15u to the bookmakers. We’ll just write that off as the price of admission and keep on moving as we head into an immaculate slate of games here in Week 5.

Just some general notes and takeaways from last week:

• Utah is dead to me. After I stuck my neck out for Kyle Whittingham and Devon Dampier, I feel just downright betrayed. Like when the Ukrainian stripper at E11even that’s been whispering sweet nothings in your ear all night sees your card decline at the ATM, I was left deserted, disappointed, and with only the shirt on my back. But don’t sweat it, Whittingham. The Sporacle ALWAYS gets his lick back. Shameless fraud.

• The situation in Gainesville almost makes me feel bad for the mighty mighty Gata, but then I remember how they joked about Jordan Travis’s leg in 2023 and how they treated Seminole fans this past season, and I find no empathy for the Hogtownies. Only 8 more games to go, Gata.

• Nebraska didn’t win, but there’s something about those Huskers that just keeps me coming back. They’re just the epitome of mid, but they battle their tails off, only to come up short seemingly every single time. Actually, it is literally every single time, as they’re 0-28 against ranked opponents dating back to 2016, but at some point, you just have to #Re2pect.

• Between his own team’s success, his daughter taking social media by storm, and a suspiciously timed documentary, Lane Kiffin is the talk of the college football world, and for good reason. My main takeaways are:

• Landry Kiffin is a certified smoke show and I’d be more than happy to fill her A-gap (respectfully, of course).

• The fact that Lane Kiffin can slide in Sydney Thomas’s DMs and still reconcile with his own ex-wife within a matter of months is just more evidence that this guy is the undisputed transfer portal master – the young 5star didn’t pan out, so let’s circle back on the 5^th year senior that’s a proven contributor. #Re2pect.

• Oh, and uhhh, Ole Miss looks like a pretty good football team too. That’s just the cherry on top.

• Doctor Darnell has been so overwhelmed this week with anxiety over the Noles/UVA game Friday night that he’s literally had to drink himself to sleep the past 2 nights just to get some shuteye. The guy is gonna have to write himself a Xanax script for the Miami game next weekend because at this rate, there’s a better chance he ends up in a psych ward than Doak Campbell Stadium next Saturday. Just take it easy, Doc.

Enough about Lane Kiffin’s daughter and Doc’s impending mental breakdown, let’s get to the picks.

Another tough week as we get some big-time matchups of teams that haven’t really played anyone or shown us much thus far. We will trust our eyes and intuition and navigate these treacherous waters like Christopher Columbus voyaging to the New World. Let’s cast off.

Picks:

FSU -7 -105 vs UVA (3.15u) / FSU Team Total Over 32.5 -125 (2.5u) / Ousmane Kromah Anytime Touchdown +140 (1.5u) / Randy Pittman Anytime Touchdown +300 (0.5u)

We are coming out swinging this week, and our weekly balance will be highly dependent on the performance of these Noles on Friday night.

This is a tricky spot for the Noles as they last faced a real opponent nearly 4 weeks ago, but I do not concur with people calling this a “trap game”. They have had basically 3 weeks to prep for this game, and when everyone is calling it a trap game, is it really a trap game?

Nonetheless, the Noles are already being discounted by the national media who say that the Alabama game was just an aberration, and certainly everyone inside the Moore Center has heard this narrative – I expect the Noles to come out skrong and put the nation on notice that Week 1 was no fluke, and that this team is FO REAL.

I am stuck between the idea of UVA actually being a semi-formidable opponent, as QB Chandler Morris has looked pretty good so far and their offense has put up points, or the idea that this is the same old UVA football program that has been irrelevant and softer than baby shit since it’s inception. But frankly, either way I see the Noles covering this spread.

UVA is dealing with a slew of injuries on the OLine, and their starting center is doubtful to play despite what the injury reports may say. Meanwhile, the Noles get back WR Squirrel White and H-Back Randy Pittman, two key components of this Gus Bus offense.

UVA is going to come out and stack the box and make Tommy Castellanos beat them with his arm (or at least that’s what they should do), and admittedly this could be a slow start if Tommy can’t make a few throws and keep the Hoos honest on defense. The other concern would be with the Noles D, who upon review of the Bama film, left a ton of receivers open in the zone coverage scheme. Chandler Morris is seasoned enough to take advantage of these holes in the pass coverage.

And while the above concerns are more than valid, I believe this Noles offense sooner or later will establish the run game and destroy the will of this UVA defense like they did to Bama. After watching some film on the UVA defense I found that their linebackers are solid, but besides that group, I was extremely underwhelmed, particularly with their DLine and Safeties. And the Noles D is only going to get better as they get more experience in a new system.

Because of that, we’ll gladly lay the 7 points, and also throw on the Noles team total, which could be seen as a gift once this game is all said and done.

For the props, I think we see a heavier dose of promising freshman Ousmane Kromah, who has arguably been FSU’s most impressive RB so far, especially with Roydell Williams out with injury.

We’ll also throw a peanut on Randy Pittman to score, as I think Virginia’s D is vulnerable in the flats, and we could see Pittman house one in a busted coverage.

The reality of this game is that if FSU wants to be a real contender and put the “Bama fluke” narrative to rest, they need to beat a wine and cheese UVA football program, and they need to do it decisively. I expect the Noles to quiet the naysayers, and come back to Tallahassee with a top 5 matchup against Miami on deck.

Ole Miss -1.5 -110 vs LSU (2.2u)

In my opinion, this is the most underrated rivalry in all of the SEC, and it’s great that this game will stay as an annual matchup with the new SEC scheduling.

These two schools are just total opposites, and they mix like oil and water. Ole Miss is the preppy and hospitable crowd in a tight-knit college town, while LSU is the nasty and repellent junkyard dog in an absolute shithole of a city. The only thing worse than Baton Rouge is the corndog-smelling people that live there.

As for this game, I was surprised to hear that other people were surprised that Ole Miss was favored. Have you not watched either of these teams play?

LSU’s offense is absolutely anemic, and that’s partially due to the fact that QB Garrett Nussmeier is dealing with a torso injury that seems to be hindering him pretty significantly. And per usual, LSU under Brian Kelly can’t run the ball worth a damn.

On the other side, Ole Miss hit the lottery with D2 transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss who has played near flawlessly through 2 games, and Kiffin found another gem in RB Kewan Lacy who is somewhat reminiscent of former Rebs RB Quinshon Judkins.

LSU’s defense has looked good through 4 games, but what offense have they really played? Cade Klubnik and Clemson? DJ LLLagway and Florida? There’s high school programs that could stop those offenses. Doesn’t move my needle.

And while Ole Miss’s defense has struggled with running QBs this year and in the past, they won’t have to worry about that Nussmeier who has cement feet. And with LSU having trouble running the ball at all, they’re going to be one-dimensional and Pete Golding and this Ole Miss D can sit back and play the pass.

The home team has won the past 5 in this matchup, and I think the Rebs roll and Lane Kiffin going to the playoffs is all but assured.

#HottyToddy

Gunner Stockton Anytime Touchdown EVEN vs Bama (2u)

The spread on this game had me in a headlock all week, and to be honest I still don’t have a good read on it, so I’m approaching it from a different angle here.

There’s so many things to consider in this one. UGA only favored by 3 at home? Is this UGA defense just not the same as it used to be? Will Ty Simpson melt in another hostile road game? Is Bama just Kirby Smart’s kryptonite?

While I do think UGA will fix their Pass D and Ty Simpson will crumble like a cookie under pressure, I just don’t have enough confidence or evidence to support that. What I do have evidence for, however, is the Alabama defense and Kane Wommack absolutely pissing down their leg against running QBs.

Tommy Castellanos, Jackson Arnold, and Diego Pavia have all tortured this Bama D within the past year, and they all have one thing in common; they can run. And you know who else can run? Gunner Stockton.

The real fact of the matter is, Kane Wommack has no business being the damn defensive coordinator at a school like Alabama, and he has displayed why time and time again. His defenses are constantly out of position and are undisciplined, particularly against offenses with mobile QBs. The only reason Wommack even has this job is because he was credited with Indiana’s defense’s success from 2019-2020, which was really just Tom Allen himself running the operation.

And while Stockton did quiet the haters that said he couldn’t throw the ball against Tennessee, the guy is always gonna run. And even more so in big games.

Bet against the fraudulent Wommack and take the proven Gunner Stockton to punch one in the endzone in this highly anticipated contest.

Go Dawgs.

Syracuse TT Under 27.5 -105 vs Duke (2.1u)

After a big win at Clemson last week for Fran Brown & Co., this is a massive letdown spot for the Orange this weekend.

On top of that and more importantly, Syracuse starting QB Steve Angeli went down with the dreaded Achilles injury last week and is out for the season. That means transfer QB Rickie Collins, who was actually QB1 for Syracuse coming out of spring before they brought in Angeli, will get the start.

While Collins was a blue chip recruit that started his career at LSU, the fact that Fran Brown felt the need to bring in another QB over him after the spring speaks volumes to me. How good can Collins really be if Brown wasn’t confident in him being the starter heading into he season?

Additionally, Duke comes in off their own much needed win against NC State where they picked off QB CJ Bailey 3 times and forced a fumble. Manny Diaz has made a living terrorizing decent QBs with his blitz heavy scheme, and I think we will see this really rattle the first-time starter Collins.

Manny Diaz and Duke are going to keep Collins in the pocket and make him make quick decisions, which I will happily bet against.

Take the Syracuse team total under after an emotional win and a potentially deflated Cuse team that lost their starting QB for the season.

Jayden Maiava Anytime Touchdown +160 @ Illinois (2u)

I will admit I never had much faith in Jayden Maiava running this Lincoln Riley offense, but after being proven otherwise through 4 games this season (albeit against bad teams), I will eat my crow and back the Big Uce this weekend.

USC’s offense has looked absolutely dynamite this season, and that in part can be attributed to Maiava’s offseason progression, as well as USC’s running game being explosive.

I’ll stay away from the spread here as I don’t like the situational spot for the Trojans as Illinois will be looking to right the ship after a totally embarrassing performance against Indiana last week, and USC having to deal with a less than ideal travel situation, but I am more than happy to back Lincoln Riley’s offense.

This Trojan offense is going to run a lot of RPOs and read options that will put the Illinois D in a position to pick which option they’re going to defend, and I think Maiava will be the beneficiary of this predicament in this game.

This will be the Illini’s first test against a mobile QB this season, and I expect Lincoln to scheme up some plays that will allow Maiava to hurt this defense with his legs. I also personally have a horde of unruly Trojan fans that will be boots on the ground in Champaign this weekend which can only help our cause.

Take Maiava to score via the ground with this juicy line.

#FightOn

Pitt +4.5 -110 vs Louisville (2.75u)

If I’m given the opportunity to back Pat Narduzzi at home against a similarly talented team, I’m going to seize it ten times out of ten.

While Pitt’s star RB Desmond Reid is questionable this week with a lower leg injury, so is Louisville’s RB Isaac Brown, and top WR Chris Bell is also banged up for the Cardinals.

While it’s tough to bet against my boy Miller Moss, I must put my emotions aside because at the end of the day, money don’t care who makes it.

Louisville hasn’t played anyone noteworthy to date, and Pitt QB Eli Holstein is one of the best QBs this defense will face all season. For Pitt, they come in off a bye week and have had the bad taste of losing the Backyard Brawl lingering in their mouths for 2 weeks, and this is a great spot to unleash some of their frustration.

I expect this Pitt team to come out motivated and for Miller Moss to struggle against Narduzzi’s high-pressure defense.

I’m taking the points here with the Panthers to be safe, but I certainly don’t hate taking the moneyline either.

#HailToPitt

Boston College -6.5 -105 vs Cal (3.15u)

We’re going to be taking advantage of these west coast travel situations all year, and this is not much different than when we faded Boston College against Stanford a couple weeks ago.

This Cal team schleps across the country to face a Boston College team in a sleepy environment after getting shutout by a San Diego State team that certainly isn’t very good.

The hype around Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has died down after completing only 44% of his passes last week and throwing a pair of interceptions as well.

On the other side, Boston College QB Dylan Longeran has quietly put together an outstanding start to the season, and I expect more of the same against a mid Cal defense on Saturday.

Bet against a brutal travel situation and lay the points with the Eagles in this one.

Ga Tech -1/West Virgina +25.5/Penn State +9/ND & Arkansas Over 50.5 13pt Teaser -120 (1.8u)

Georgia Tech handles business against a bad Wake Forest Team. Fading bum ass Devon Dampier and that horrific Utah offense the rest of the season. Penn State wins outright, but I can’t take -4. Notre Dame and Arkansas duel in a shootout in Fayetteville.

Conclusion:

We have a great slate of games this week, and we have chosen our spots wisely. Some sneaky games to watch will be Ohio State @ Washington and Auburn @ TAMU, but we’ll keep our finger off the trigger in those matchups.

We will enjoy a Noles win on Friday and watch games all Saturday without any angst.

That’s all I’ve got. See you next week.

Happy Hunting,

The Sporacle