Last Week's Recap:
If you just followed the pre-tourney picks it looks like we got cleaned last week, but that was actually not the case. We had Brooks outright at +3300 (and we admittedly did double down Wednesday and added another unit even though it wasn't logged, so we won't count that) and he was the live leader all of Day 2 and 3. This provided us with an opportunity to sprinkle on some other guys to cover our bets, and we actually came out in the positive last week after doing so (yes, we took Rahm live at plus odds). If you're not locking in your profits and taking the free money when it's there, you won't stay in this game very long. Let's look at what we're getting into this week at Harbour Town Golf Links
Course:
Harbour Town has been a staple on TOUR ever since the start of this event back in 1969. Measuring just a hair over 7,100, this course demands ball-striking and shot creation, and those are the types of players we'll be looking for this week. This traditional Pete Dye course often takes driver out of your hands off the tee, so straight bombers are not what we're looking for. We're looking for guys that can move the ball both ways, play good positional golf, and are able to gain on approach on these small greens. Greens are overseeded bermuda like we've seen at Innisbrook and TPC courses this year, so guys that excel on those green types certainly get a bump this week. Pete Dye specialists will also get a decent-sized boost from us as well.
Outrights:
Max Homa +2800 1u
When I think of guys that are great on approach, Homa is one of the first that comes to mind. This was the first bet I made this week and after doing some digging I'm not in love with this bet, but I think you have to have a bone on Homa at this price. +2800 for arguably the best approach player over the past 6 months is negligent by the books, and they could end up paying for it. Homa doesn't have good history at Dye courses, and I think that's the reasoning behind the pricing, but I would still have him around +2200-2400. Plus after a lackluster showing at the Masters, I think Max is eager to get back into contention.
Sam Burns +4000 2u
Favorite bet of the week right here. The past 2 times he's played on these type of overseeded bermudas, he's finished 1st (WGC Match Play) and 6th (Valspar). Burns didn't have a great showing last week at the Masters, and again I think that could serve as some motivation this week. Burns's irons have been inconsistent this year thus far, but I think he's found something recently, and at +4000 I'm in on him. Let's hope his irons show up this week, and we'll have a real shot at an outright.
Si Woo Kim +6000 0.5u
Kim is the ultimate Pete Dye specialist, and that's the reason for backing him this week. He's 6th overall in T2G on Pete Dye courses over the last 50 rounds, the putter is just what's been holding him back. With that being said, Kim did flash a new putter on the practice greens of Augusta last week, so maybe the new stick can provide the spark he needs? For $10 I'm willing to bet yes.
Chris Kirk +9000 0.5u
Another lotto we're willing to throw a bone on, Kirk has shown signs of being an elite approach player this year. High finishes at Sony and the Amex, and winning the Honda all proved that Kirk has the ability to win, but can he do so in an elevated field? We'll see, and a top 20 bet is probably smarter, but we'll ride the outright for a small investment.
Top 10:
Garrick Higgo +1200 1u
Higgo is such an enigma, and that's what makes him fun to bet on. Last year he flashed at times, showing he is a great approach player, but his putter is just atrocious. He hasn't putted particularly well on these greens, and this bet is not for the faint of heart, but I just feel like he fits this course so well. If his irons are hot like they can be, we could see Higgo make a run for a T5.
Top 20:
Sam Burns +140 3u
If Burns doesn't T20 here then I just don't know man. His putting alone on these surfaces gives him a leg up on the field, and add in the fact that his game could be peaking, I think this is a great slam spot for a semi-safe bet.
Matchup
Morikawa over Cantlay +110 1u
This is a principle bet purely based on the fact that Patrick Cantlay rigged the 2023 Masters. That smug little shit couldn't bear witness to a LIV player donning the green jacket, so he decided to go full Stephen Hawkings and play his final round in 5 hours, essentially placing the jacket on Jon Rahm's shoulders. Just abysmal. Fuck you Patrick, I hope you never sniff a tourney win again.
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