2024 CFB Week 3 Picks
Last Week Recap:
No two ways around, Spo took an absolute ass whipping last week.
Cuse/GT had almost 1000 yards of offense and still couldn’t go over, Iowa crumbled like a cookie in the final 90 seconds of their game, Dabo ran up the score like the pathetic loser he is to try and save his job, and everything else wasn’t even close. The only thing that hit was the chalk parlay.
With that being said, Spo ALWAYS gets his lick back – shouldn’t have forced things with the shit slate last week, but I have learned my lesson, and it literally can’t get worse than last week.
Outside of the games we bet last week, there were other great matchups like that Okie State/Arky game. Feel awful for my boy Sam Pittman as he just can’t get the job done, but he can get a job modeling bras for Victoria Secret immediately, so not too worried about him.
Tulane/KState was also a fun one to watch, and Tulane’s QB looked pretty damn good for being a freshman. Funny, it seems like every other school ca play young QBs, but in Mike Norvell’s system they need at least 2 years? What a joke.
The games this week aren’t much better than last week, but there’s some conference games, and that’s where we get our biscuit. Some juicy spots I like as well this week.
My counterpart Billy Tickets is on an absurd heater, so make sure to give his picks a read.
Last Week Record: 1-9 (-24.8u)
Overall Record: 9-21 (-29.95u)
Pull up your bootstraps and let’s get to work.
Picks:
Arizona State TT u30.5 -145 vs Texas State (2u)
This is certainly a line error of some sort as Texas State is a 2.5 point favorite in the game, yet the TT for both ASU and Texas State are 30.5 and 28.5, respectively, albeit juiced on both sides.
There’s an arbitrage opportunity in there somewhere, but unfortunately I’m not a numbers guru and arbitrage bets are no fun anyways – we want a Thursday night sweat.
Looking at both teams, Texas State themselves have been on the up and up for a few years now, and a win over ASU would put them in the conversation for getting that non-P4 spot in the playoff.
On the other side, ASU’s pass offense is a mess. Starter Sam Leavitt completed just 10 passes last week for 65 yards in the entire game – they didn’t need to throw it much as they gashed Miss St on the ground, but that won’t be the case this week.
Texas State has held both teams they’ve faced to under 100 rush yards each, and they gave up 150 rush yards per game last year.
I expect Texas State to stack the box on Thursday night and make ASU beat them through the air – I don’t see that happening.
Don’t love the juice on this so we’re keeping it small, but need something for Thursday night.
On a side note, the poon at this game will be immaculate – go do some research on the co-eds of Texas State – where do you think all the dumb girls from Texas go when they can’t get into UT and Texas Tech?
UNLV vs Kansas u58 -110 (3u)
Here we have 2 teams that want to run the ball, and two teams that are good against the run on defense.
If neither can get the run game going, they will be forced to turn to the air game, and neither QBs are very good – don’t try to sell me on Jalon Daniels, because I’m not buying it.
I think both teams will start with running the ball, churning some clock, and if that doesn’t work, they will try to air it out with their mid QBs – doesn’t seem like a lot points to me.
Also like 1H under here
Ole Miss TT o43.5 -110 vs Wake Forest (3u)
Ole Miss offense good. Wake Forest defense bad. That’s really all you need to know.
But besides that, reports coming out of Oxford that head coach Joey Freshwater -- uhhh I mean, Lane Kiffin, has been firing up his team all week, saying everyone in the country is disrespecting them and not taking them seriously.
If true, I expect Mr. Kiffin to run up the score on their first P4 opponents and firmly insert themselves in the National championship conversation.
I would take the spread here, but Wake Forest’s “slow mesh” offense can be tricky to prep against, so we’ll back the Ole Miss offense here.
And Gator fans – I hate to break it to you, but Lane Kiffin isn’t coming to Gainesville. Not after this season, not ever. Kiffin is the most popular man in Oxford, is dating a smoke show former sorority girl, and his daughter just enrolled at the university. Oh yeah, he’s raking in a smooth 9M a year, too. Anything short of 15M a year won’t move the needle for Mr. Kiffin.
Toledo vs Mississippi State -10.5 -110 (2u)
Despites Toledo’s 2-0 record, I think they are overvalued by the market in this spot. The Rockets were in a dogfight with UMass last week, regardless of the final score, and they gave up 150+ rush yards to Duquesne. Not great, Bob.
On the flipside, Miss St was getting blown out by Arizona State last week, but they made 2nd half adjustments and were in the game until the final seconds.
Miss St coach Jeff Lebby is a great offensive mind that loves to run tempo, and the Bulldogs should find success against a dismantled Toledo roster.
I expect transfer QB Blake Shapen to find success against this below-average pass defense, and they should have some confidence coming out of last week given their 2nd half performance.
Memphis +7 -110 vs Florida State (4u)
Ahhh yes, the game we’ve been waiting two weeks for.
Practice reports out of Tallahassee have been a mixed bag (not that the lying Tallahassee media would tell us anything substantial anyways), but one thing we do know is that DJU will be starting again for the Seminoles.
I could end the write-up right there, but I think this Memphis team actually has some juice. Running back Mario Anderson Jr. comes in from SCAR, where he put up multiple 100 yard rushing games last year in the SEC. It’s safe to say the Noles are nowhere near the level of opponent he faced last year.
Memphis QB Seth Henigan put up some big time numbers last year, and I see no way the FSU defense will stop him from doing that on Saturday
Mike Norvell refuses to make any sort of change anywhere on the depth chart, so I don’t know how anyone can still back the Noles. Complete and utter insanity.
For what it’s worth, I expect DJU to come out, shit down his leg, the Noles go down 14+ going into half, and then Mini Mike will insert Brock Glenn into a nearly impossible situation. Mike needs to be careful he doesn’t ruin BG11 and leave us with needledick Luke Kromenhoek, but that’s the reality we’re facing here.
If the Noles lose this one, I’ll have a special treat for you all next week.
Moneyline Sprinkles:
Arizona ML +235 vs Kansas State (1u)
I haven’t been impressed with Kansas State QB Avery Johnson thus far this year – to be fair, he hasn’t needed to throw it much as they’ve been finding success on the ground, but I don’t expect them to find the same success against a P4 team.
KState gave up 340+ pass yards last week to a true freshman QB, and Noah Fifita will have a field day against this porous secondary. Good sprinkle.
Colorado at Colorado State ML +235 (1.5u)
I think almost everyone remembers this game last year – it was chippy and physical from the start, and it’s going to be the exact same come Saturday night.
This game is filled with bad blood, and Colorado State has had this game circled for the past 12 months – I think that’s why they got crushed by Texas in Week 1, because they were saving their ammo for this game right here.
In addition, the Colorado locker room is more chaotic than College Ave on FAMU homecoming weekend, and I think those Buffs have quit.
And absolutely fuck Deion Sanders – guy is a resentful scumbag and pretends to be a “faithful Christian man”, when in reality he’s a self-centered narcissist just trying to make a buck for his own kids, while neglecting the rest of the roster. Disgusting.
UNLV ML +260 vs Kansas (1u)
Barry Odom is sneaky building something out there in Las Vegas. The guy’s mentor was Gary Pinkel, who is somewhat of a Missouri legend, so he’s well suited for the job.
Both of these teams faced off in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, and the Jayhawks got the best of Odom’s squad, but you know we love getting our lick back around here, and that’s what we’ll be rooting for.
Take the points if you’re a kale salad eating cuck.
Memphis ML +220 vs FSU (1.5u)
No faith in Norvell. No faith in the assistants. No faith in the current starters.
Norvell had the opportunity of making some significant changes over the bye week, but he refused to do so. Seems to me like Norvell keeps making bad decision after bad decision.
Noles get their teeth kicked in by Mini’s former team, and things start to get real dicey in the Moore Center in Tallahassee. Watch out.
11 Point Teaser -125 (3u):
Arizona +18 / Memphis +18 / Colorado St +18
Degen Parlay +2600 (0.5u)
Arizona ML / Memphis ML / Colorado St ML
Kinda going all in with the correlated straights/parlay/teaser, but that’s what we fucking do baby.
I also want to say I’m sorry to all new freshmen enrolled at FSU. I too was led astray when I chose FSU, believing I was getting prime Jimbo Fisher years, when I actually got Xanax addict Willie Taggart and Mini fucking Mike. Absolute tragedy, really. Just keep drinking kids, everything will be ok.
Let’s start out hot on Thursday and get the ball rolling into the weekend.
As always, follow on Twitter @spossports to stay up to date with anything myself or Billy Tickets may add to the card, and you can track our bets in the spreadsheet below.
Go Noles.
Spo Out.
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