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2023 Masters DFS Plays, Fades, and Punts


Weather:

As always, we start our DFS picks by checking the weather. At first glance, it seems like an advantage for the PM/AM starters. It will be windy Thursday morning, and then it settles down throughout the afternoon. Friday is the opposite, as it starts calm in the morning and picks up in the afternoon. Rain showers Friday afternoon could make the course play a bit easier, especially on the greens, but with the added wind I think it should basically offset the green firmness.


Strategy:

This week is all about ownership, and it will be hard to project due to the influx of LIV golfers, and how the public will play them. I see playing this week as one of two way. Either you need to go all in on a top 3 guy (Scottie, Rory, Rahm), or you need to fade them all together. Fading them may seem ballsy (it is, these top 3 guys hold nearly 20% of the win equity this week), but if these guys flop, you will have a huge advantage over the field. Admittedly, I have not decided how I'm going to start off my lineups, but I'm currently leaning towards starting with Scottie and figuring out the rest. We will keep you updated with how we play it.




Players We're Targeting:


Justin Thomas $9,300 (14% projected ownership)


Don't get me wrong, JT has burned me too many times to remember, and he could very well do it again this week, but I am starting to fall in love with him at this price and ownership. I'm not playing Cam Smith if he was the last golfer on Earth, and Spieth and Cantlay ownerships may make JT a tad under the radar. For a guy who's worst finish is 21st in his last 5 starts at Augusta, JT seems like a safe bet to include in DFS lineups. Add in the fact he's a great wind player, JT could be in winning GPP lineups this week.


Dustin Johnson $8,800 (9% projected ownership)


I don't love playing LIV guys this week as there is just so many questions marks surrounding them, but if there's one guy I do like from LIV, it's DJ. Great course history, good finishes recently on LIV, and relatively low ownership, I'll definitely be putting DJ in lineups this week.


Shane Lowry $7,900 (7% Projected Ownership)


Lowry hasn't been playing his bestest golf as of late, but he is a guy that always seems to show up when the lights get bright. He's got great course history (T3 last year), and combined with the rain and wind forecasted this week, Lowry becomes an even more appealing play. I'll be playing Lowry in 10-15% of lineups this week.



Players We're Avoiding


Tony Finau $8,900 (21% Projected Ownership)


This is tough because Tony is my favorite player on Tour, but at 21% I just can't get behind that this week. I'd rather pay the extra $100 or $200 and grab Mori or Xander, or just go down to DJ at half the ownership rather than lay Finau this week. He is a safe pick, and that's why his ownership is so high, but unless he wins, he won't be in any winning GPP lineups this week.


Tyrell Hatton $7,900 (14% Projected Ownership)


Hatton's price is actually very appealing this week, but that's why we see his ownership in the mid teens this week. This isn't fading Hatton because his price or play, but rather because there are other good options around him at better ownerships. Fitz, Lowry, Niemann, Rose would all be clicked for me before I'm playing Hatton this week. Add in the fact he's had just one T20 finish or better in his past 5 starts here, Hatton won't be winning any DFS tournaments for you this week.


Corey Conners $7600 (25% Projected Ownership)


Well Conners is either gonna go T10 again this year or miss the cut, and at a 25% ownership, I'll bet on being cut everyday of the week. 25% is just absurd for a slightly above average Tour pro. I understand his pricing is a smidge low (maybe), but even then, the ownership takes him out of it for me. Look at pivots like Adam Scott, Fleetwood, and Abe Ancer in this range.



Punts:


Bubba Watson $6,900 (2% projected ownership)


Talk about course history, Bubba has only missed the cut once in 12 total starts at The Masters dating back to 2011. His form isn't great as he's presumably been dicking around on the LIV Tour after collecting his bag, but if there's ever a place for Bubba to show up, it's this week at Augusta. I'll throw him in my pool around 5%.


Harold Varner III $6,500 (1% Projected Ownership)


At this price and ownership, I'll play Varner all day. I thought he was one of the more underrated golfers before joining LIV, and he tends to start tournaments off hot. He posted a 23rd finish last year in his only Masters start, so let's see if he can build off that past success this year. Safe to say I'll have Varner at 3-5% this week.


Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira $6,100 (0% projected ownership)


I had no idea who this guy was until a read an article ranking every golfer in the field. If you have no balls, or if you have a brain, you don't play Mateo, but I will not be heeding that advice. I read that Mateo "has the short game of a top 20 player on Tour" and that's all I needed to hear. Add the fact that his Wikipedia page is in straight Spanish, I'll throw a percent or two on this young gun and hope he does something miraculous.



That's all for DFS this week, leave any comments or questions below!








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